FL - Monmouth: Clinton +5

[Antonio the Sixth]

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

I'll update as I get more.

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Oh sh**t....


But '400' LV = Not enough Sample size for Yuge State FL

False.

to get 95% confidence with a 5% error (most polls aim for this) you need 384 completes in a population of 10 million.

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

And the population doesn't really matter that much. You need the exact same number for a state with 2 million, or even 500k.

Florida - 35 counties exceeded, total 50k votes in Election 2012
Iowa - only 6 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012
Nevada - only 2 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012 (Clarck,Washoe there)
 
so 400 LV = not enough volume for Florida.

The number of observations in the population to sample is irrelevant to the precision of sample estimators.