Marijuana 2016!

[NOVA Green]

I'll vote no in MA. As I voted against the California measure on 2010.

Any reason?

You can and will vote your conscience, but I will tell you that in Oregon (Where I currently live), as well as other states like Washington and Colorado, there has not been an epidemic of teenage kids consuming marijuana (In fact I think the numbers of High School students that are Juniors or Seniors has significantly declined since the 1980s), but rather adults can go to the equivalent of a liquor store and purchase a small quantity to consume in the privacy of their own homes.

Additionally there have been somewhere like $200 Million going towards the state general fund towards education and substance abuse prevention, not to mention much more money saved in excessive costs in terms of court fees and the like, as well as diverting law enforcement efforts in other directions, rather than busting some teenage kids on the street smoking a joint.

So, pray tell why are you still in favor of prohibition unless it is only on moral grounds? Should we ban alcohol and tobacco as well, despite the preexisting "sin tax"?

[NOVA Green]

Of the states that have not yet legalized weed, annual consumption (% of adults that imbibed within the past year) is as follows based upon a CBS Study:

1.) Vermont (16%)
2.) New Hampshire (15%)
3.) Massachusetts (15%)
4.) Rhode Island (14%)
5.) Maine (14%)
6.) California (13%)
7.) New York (13%)
8.) Connecticut (13%)
9.) Montana (12%)
10.) Michigan (12%)
11.) Hawaii
12.) Delaware (12%)

Another Study from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) where I eliminated states where herb is already legal on rates of adult consumption within the past year:

1.) Rhode Island
2.) Vermont
3.) Montana
4.) Massachussets
5.) California

So based upon these statistics, I suspect that legalization will pass in Mass, Maine, and Cali with an extremely good chance of passing in NV (Libertarian social perspectives) and may or may not pass in Arizona....

It looks like there are some states in New England and Montana where we can expect significant movement in the future, however not all of these states make it easy to put issues on the ballot, so would likely have to pass through the state legislatures....

[NOVA Green]

A bunch of counties and cities in Oregon are going to vote on marijuana related issues this November, from county taxation on sales, to some counties and cities potentially voting to go "dry" when it comes to having a dispensary within their jusrisdications.

http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2016/09/voters_in_dozens_of_oregon_com.html#incart_river_index

[NOVA Green]

So a new batch of "Weed Polls" came out today as part of the InsightsWest organization:

http://www.insightswest.com/news/trump-leads-in-arizona-and-nevada-clinton-in-california-and-washington/

AZ- 56% currently supporting legalization
CA- 57% currently supporting legalization
NV- 55% currently supporting legalization


It's currently looking favorable to see three more Green states come November, in addition to the four Green states already out there (WA,OR,CO,AK).

I haven't seen any polls from Mass and Maine to see if there might be a breakthrough in the Northeast/ New England but definitely looking like there will be major gains this year on prohibition personal possession/consumption of herb.

[NOVA Green]

So here's a county level map of the Cali legalization vote, although granted there are still a few Million ballots outstanding in the Golden State...

Colors codes:

Dark Green= = +20% Legalization Margins
Medium Green = 10-20% Legalization Margins
Light Green= 0.1-10% Legalization Margins
Light Purple= 0.1-10% Anti-Legalization Margins
Darker Purple= 10-20% Anti-Legalization Margins


A few counties might be slightly off due to issues with Paint.Net and the Cali map I downloaded....

Now the most interesting thing is less that Californians voted to legalize recreational Marijuana, but rather where these votes were cast...

So, for example in heavily "small-farmer" dope growing counties of the Emerald Triangle (Humboldt-Mendocino, and Trinity), there was a clear backlash, since many of these farmers see their income under attack at the hands of giant "factory farmers" that they feel will dominate the Cannabis market in Post-Legalization Cali.

Meanwhile you have many heavily Republican and overwhelmingly "Trump Counties" where legalization only lost narrowly, despite a 60-40+ Trump win in places like Shasta, Redding, and small communities in the foothills of the Sierra-Nevadas....

Additionally, it appears that in heavily Latino, Asian-American, and African-American counties, there was a significant drop-off in support for legalization versus urban Metro counties with a higher Anglo population....

Will definitely need to examine precinct level returns in more detail, but for now here's some hard data... Enjoy

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Oregon, there were a ton of Marijuana related items on the ballot at municipal levels, that were hard wired into to the 2014 Legalization Ballot.

Basically they broke down into two categories involving local control involving Herb:

1.) Municipal Sales Taxes ranging from 1.5-4% overwhelmingly passed in most municipilities.

2.) City/county measures regarding medical/recreational bans etc...

Essentially the current law is now creating a mix of "wet" and "dry" counties and cities, even in an overwhelmingly Post-Prohibition era.

Most notably there are now two entirely "dry counties" in Western Oregon that are populous (Douglas and Marion) where although one can obviously grow and consume, it will require driving a distance in order to purchase medical and recreational marijuana.

Meanwhile there are various small towns and cities that voted to ban sales of recreational Herb, most notably Lake Oswego and West Linn (Wealthy 'Hoods in Clackamas Co), but generally Prohibition was rejected even in heavily Republican Counties (Linn County) as well as in medium-sized cities (Gladstone, Oregon City, Medford, Lebanon, Albany).

Coos Bay overwhelmingly overturned a ban on MJ sales in their city, and a few small towns on the Northern Oregon Coast (Manzanita & Cannon Beach) effectively overturned local bans, to make it easier for tourists and locals alike to buy a nug and not have to deal with driving in inclement Winter Coastal weather....

BTW... not sure about the emotis with shades popping up on the list below, since these are not deliberate and have no idea about how they appear when I am simply entering percentages with parenthases....


Clackamas- Gladstone--- NO (49.2-50.
Clackamas-- Lake Oswego-- YES (60.6-39.4)
Clackamas--- Canby voted against the lifting the MJ Ban (40.2-59.
Clackamas--- Oregon City--- NO (45.5-54.5)
Clackamas--- Sandy--- YES (56.2-43.
Clackamas--- West Linn--- YES (61.0-39.0)
Clackamas---- Wilsonville--- YES (64.1-35.9)
Clatsop--- Cannon Beach--- NO (48.7-51.3)
Columbia---Scappoose--- NO (37.3-62.7)
Coos--- Coos Bay voted to lift the MJ Ban (60.2-39.8 YES)
Coos--- Myrtle Point--- NO (48.1-51.9)
Deschutes--- LaPine--- NO (39.7-60.3)
Douglas County---- (Bans both dispensaries and recreational (52% YES on dispensary ban and 55% on recreational)
Gilliam County--- NO on ban of dispensaries and recreational (43.5-56.5)
Jackson County- Central Point--- YES ban on dispensaries (56.3-43.7)
Jackson---- Eagle Point--- YES (58.3-41.7)
Jackson--- Jacksonville--- YES to ban on dispensaries (69.1-30.9)
Jackson--- Medford--- YES to banning growing legal weed outdoors (66.2-33.
Jackson--- Medford--- NO to banning MJ Sales (47.7-52.3)
Jefferson County--- YES to banning Marijuana Processing (52.5-47.5)
Jefferson County--- YES to banning growing recreational MJ (51.4-48.6)
Jefferson County--- YES to banning MJ wholesalers in the county (53.0-47.0)
Jefferson County---- YES to banning MJ retail sales in the county (53.3-46.7)
Jefferson County--- NO to banning medical MJ Dispensaries (48.7-51.3)
Jefferson County--- NO to banning Medical MJ Processing (47.9-52.1)
Jefferson--- Madras--- NO to an MJ Sales Ban (44.0-56.0)
Lake County---- YES to banning all rec and medicinal MJ sales (38.5-61.5)
Lane-- Coburg--- YES (62.1-37.9)
Lane-- Creswell--- YES (52.6-47.4)
Linn County- MJ Sales Ban-- NO (46.3-53.7)
Linn- Albany--- NO (36.2-63.
Linn- Brownsville--- NO (49.8-50.2)
Linn- Halsey-- YES (52.7-47.3)
Linn- Harrisburg- YES (55.3-44.7)
Linn- Lebanon- NO (39.9-60.1)
Linn- Lyons- YES (54.9-45.1)
Linn- Mill City- YES (52.5-47.5)
Linn-- Millersburg- YES (52.5-47.5)
Linn- Sweet Home- NO to ban on medical dispensaries (42.5-57.5)
Linn- Sweet Home- NO to ban on sales (45.2-54.
Linn- Tangent- NO (44.7-55.3)
Marion County--- YES to banning Rec MJ Sales (53.1-46.9)
Marion County--- YES to banning Medical MJ (50.6-49.4)
Marion- Aumsville- YES (51.6-48.4)
Marion- Gervais--- NO (33.1-66.9)
Marion- Hubbard-- NO (46.5-53.5)
Marion- Mt Angel- YES to banning medical and recreational MJ Sales (55.3-44.7)
Marion- Scotts Mill- YES (63.5-36.5)
Marion- Sublimity- YES (55.0-45.0)
Marion- Turner- NO (49.2-50.
Tillamook- Manzanita- NO (32.6-67.4)
Umatilla- Hermiston- YES (54.4-45.6)
Umatilla- Milton-Freewater YES- ban on recreational and medicinal (51.7-48.3)
Umatilla- Pendleton- NO to ban on Medical MJ dispensaries (39.1-60.9)
Umatilla- Pendleton- NO to ban on recreational MJ Sales (44.2-55.
Union--- City of Union- YES to Rec ban on MJ (57.9-42.1)
Union---North Powder- YES to ban (59.1-40.9)
Wasco- Maupin--- YES to Dispensary ban (52.5-47.5)
Wasco- Maupin--- YES to MJ Sales ban (58.2-41.
Washington- Gaston-  YES to blanket MJ business ban (51.5-48.5)
Washington- Sherwood- YES to blanket MJ business ban (56.5-43.5)

[NOVA Green]

Considering the polls, the margin in California isn't too surprising (it does seem that the undecideds voted against legalization). Once the vote has been certified, I'd like to do some swing/trend maps comparing Prop 64 against Prop 19 (failed legalization in 2010) and Prop 215 (legalization of medical marijuana in 1996). Even where it failed (including a number of staunchly pro-Trump rural counties), I'm surprised how well Prop 64 did geographically. Only five counties voted against Prop 64 by more than 10% under the current count.

Does anyone have the Atlas swing/trend colour code?


To NOVA Green, did Oregon basically take three steps forward in 2014 and now take two steps back? What rights under state law do Oregonians retain even under the most restrictive counties now?

So basically to provide a short and succinct answer:

Question #1--- three steps forward in '14 and two steps back in '16.

Yes---- However this was a deliberate decision on the part of the authors and organizations behind the 2014 Oregon Legalization initiative.... by allowing local communities and counties to have a choice and voice in the process, it made it more comfortable for voters to support as part of a "lessons learned" from the Colorado and Washington State MJ initiatives....

Anyone can still grow herb in their home, and have a direct state licensed grower to provide them with medicine regardless of municipalities and county level bans on Oregon Liquor Control Commissioned "Weed Stores" in their counties.

2.) Under Oregon law there is no measure to overturn the will of the voters in the communities and counties that decide to ban recreational/medicinal dispensaries in their communities, or that choose to ban marijuana producing and processing businesses. Either the voters in these communities need to change their their position, or a new measure will need to be on the ballot that will prohibit local communities from banning these businesses operating in their communities....

Note that there were several communities in Oregon that overturned bans on MJ in their communities (I believe Cannon Beach and Manzanita are two on the list off the top of head, but will need to double check).

Now that being said, the most fascinating thing about Legal MJ in Oregon is that some of the most Republican Counties in the state were much more supportive, and legalization underperformed in some on the most Democratic counties in the state, and there was a drop-off in the "soccer mom" votes in places .

So here is a map that shows support for the 2014 Recreational Legalization Bill:

Color Scheme:

Yellow Green= 0.1-5.0%- Legalization
Light Green= 5.1- 10.0% Legalization
Olive Green= 10.1-15.0% Legalization
Dark Green= 15.1%+ Legalization
Yellow= 0.1-5.0% Non-Legalization
Light Pink= 5.1-10.0 % non-Legalization
Fuscia= 10.1-15.0% Non-Legalization
Dark Red= 15.1%+ Non-Legalization

So the most interesting thing to note on this map is how many counties voted FOR legalization, including some counties that typically vote Republican by large margins, and how close even the most heavily Republican counties in Western Oregon (Douglas, Linn, and Josephine voted AGAINST). Literally only two votes separated support for legalization in Josephine County, so one vote would have flipped for a tie and two for a majority...




The second map uses the Obama 2008 numbers as a baseline comparing Obama's percentage of the vote versus the YES vote for legalization, to see how many Oregonians in heavily Republican counties voted for legalization, and also the drop-off in support for legalization in heavily Democratic counties...

So similar type of color coding:

Yellow Green= +0.1-2.5% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
Light Green= 2.6-5.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
Olive Green= 5.1-10.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
Dark Green= 10.1+ % from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 YES on Legalization
White= No Swing either way (Umatilla County)
Yellow= -0.1-2.5% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 NO on Legalization
Light Pink= -2.6-5.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 NO on Legalization
Fuscia= -5.1-10.0% from Obama '08 numbers towards '14 NO on Legalization


Again I just used Obama '08 numbers from a multiple candidate contest in a year with extremely high voter turnout levels, versus a midterm election year with lower turnout on the Marijuana Legalization to see how these items played.

Bottom Line: If you look at this latter map you will basically see how broad the support for marijuana legalization is in Oregon, and how heavily this measure even in an off-year election completely outperformed Obama's numbers statewide in '08, and there was a drop-off in the "soccer mom" vote in Washington and Multnomah counties that was essentially traded for a huge swap in "downstate Oregon"....

That being said the cities and counties that choose to become "dry communities", are just shooting themselves in the foot, as recreational consumers, or those with medical cards either purchase items on the black market, commute to cities and counties where they can purchase such products, regardless it deprives many poorer and rural communities that have chosen prohibition a significant loss in both tax revenue and employment, where over 3,000 direct jobs have already been created in Oregon, as well as many independent licensed contracting jobs that supply product to the dispensaries....