Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How about we wait for the election before sh!tting all over the basic decency of Alabamans?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

New Shelby comments:

Manu Raju @mkraju
Alabama's senior GOP senator, Richard Shelby, unloading on Roy Moore in intvw w @jaketapper: "When it came to the 14-year-old story, that was too much for me...I couldn't vote for Roy Moore...The state of Alabama deserves better...I think the Republican Party can do better."
9:08 AM · Dec 10, 2017

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/939859384838041600

Good for Shelby

IIRC, Shelby and Flake (who donated $100 to Jones’ campaign) are the only two who have really been consistently vocal about denouncing Moore and encouraging Alabamans not to vote for him.  Maybe McCain too, don’t remember.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

Yes, there are more than two options.

I thought you were just referring to the write-ins, my bad.

 All of this could have been avoided had Trump gone all in for Mo Brooks in the primary, probably pushing him over the top to win the nomination.  Brooks is a low immigration advocate, party loyalist type who in hindsight was the safe choice from the beginning for Trump.

You know, it really shows just how much the Republicans have lost their way when you have folks longingly referring to the racist, misogynistic chief defender of a child molester who has spent a good month or so attacking said pedophile’s victims as “the safe choice.”  The fact that Brooks’ staunch support for Roy Moore, a man who under Alabama Law has literally sexually abused multiple people, is not an instant dealbreaker says quite a bit about you and none of it good.  This is one of those rare American elections where one side is objectively unambiguously evil.  This isn’t a case of good people getting caught up in something evil like it was with some of Trump’s supporters.  What this comes down to is whether Alabaman voters think child molestation is unacceptable.  I always try to give folks the benefit of the doubt, but anyone who still supports Roy Moore is simply a disgusting human being who - when push comes to shove - is perfectly willing to give a child molester a free pass out of amoral tribalism.  I won’t dismiss all Alabamans as evil folks if Moore wins, but the win or lose, his supporters are simply horrible people.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.

Agreed.  I wouldn't be surprised if Moore ended up winning, but at the same time, I'm still fairly confident Jones will win (as I have been ever since the Washington Post ran its first story about this).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.

Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

The AL SoS office disagrees

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)

Now you know why I have no faith in Alabama voters, and why nobody here should either.

Like I said, still pretty confident Jones is gonna win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What year will Moore become Senate Minority Leader, do we think? 2021 if McConnell retires?

Never.

You think he'll be majority leader?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lol

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We’re not anti-Semitic, honest and for truly.  We even have Jewish friend who is one of those people!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

Who?  Also link?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.

Yeah, I’d be overjoyed if it was even 40-43%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lol

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Come to think of it, I don’t think any of their attorneys are even Jewish LOL

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

I believe you, but link?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is it me or has IceSpear been conspicuously absent from this thread today?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.

Nina Turner doesn’t speak for the Bernie wing in any meaningful sense.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Extreme, looks like you've got a reunion with you, me and Classic.

The child molestation fan club?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

God bless Alabama!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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They had Jones winning by 10% at the same time. What kind of model is that? Mine had a slight Moore lead, but a lead nonetheless and got gradually more confident as time went on.

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Christ. Every other post in the hour before the election was 'pedophile'. You want class? Clean up your own cesspit. Also you had Extreme, me and classic as 'pedophiles' for standing up for Moore.

Whatever you say, Sir One-Note.

I mean...you three were supporting a child molester.  That doesn't make you pedophiles, but it does make you bad people who were willing to be apologists for a child molester.