If Corzine wins, should the NJ GOP disband?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Nah, New Jersey still has 21 counties, and Republicans have control of the Freeholder (legislative) Boards of about half. And even with Christie teetering, Republicans still look good to otherwise have their best year there in about a decade. They might even win a freeholder seat in Bergen! (gasp)

statewide, though... well, it's still a D+7 state, you know?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I want to add a little something to Lunar's comments.

New Jersey indeed has a frustrating small-but-overly-vocal brigade of pissed off superconservatives.  They're not mainstream conservatives, but a unique breed to New Jersey—those of you who know Scott Garrett's record know what I'm talking about.  Local pundits know them as the "Mountain Men," precisely because they are almost uniformly male and come from just a handful of counties in the (relatively) mountainous, safely Republican areas of Northern New Jersey.  They care about fiscal issues way more than social ones, though they're still vehemently anti-abortion and gay rights.  Pat Toomey would fit in well with them.

They've been pissed off since Whitman, and weren't even happy before she came on the scene.  They lack the power to elect anyone statewide, even in a GOP primary, and they wind up going Republican in the voting booth in November, even for an "unacceptable" "liberal" (read: pretty mainstream) Republican like Doug Forrester.  It's just that along the way, they tear into the GOP nominee at every opportunity, causing constant bad press and perpetual news stories about Republicans being upset at their nominee.

The main culprit here is conservative consultant Rick Shaftan.  Mention his name in the NJ GOP headquarters, and they'll give you a frustrated sigh (seriously, I've done it!).  Shaftan was the brains behind Lonegan; he was the muscle behind the conservative primary challenge to Tom Kean Jr. in 2006.  The party has tried to give him a voice behind the scenes, but that's not his style—he wants to cause trouble.  His way or the highway.  You know the type.

He's a little Napoleon, but he's good at rallying the 10% who are open to his message.

And he's a cancer on the New Jersey GOP.  He doesn't force statewide candidates to the right, but in an effort to keep Shaftanites from openly sabotaging campaigns, statewide candidates will often resist making common sense concessions to the middle.  Christie has been very good at managing Shaftan, despite the outburst over his Lt. Governor choice (CAUSE OH MY GOD SHE'S PRO CHOICE).

You can blame the left-leaning middle for the recent shift in support—these voters were mildly against Corzine at the outset of the campaign, enough to tell pollsters that they were supporting Christie (or NOTA).  Corzine's early numbers were horrific amongst members of his own party—some early polls had him between 65 and 70 percent.  The usual line—Christie equals Bush—was a marked failure amongst these voters, and they stayed with Christie (or stayed undecided) throughout the summer.  Corzine was especially having trouble convincing women, who were voting almost identically as their male counterparts—a death sentence for a northeastern Democrat who should be able to open up a damn near 20 point gender gap.

I said, back when Corzine was down 10, that he needed an actual wedge issue to make his move.  Something to fire up the left.  He found that issue about a month ago: the Christie health care plan.

The idea behind the plan sounded harmless enough—reduce the cost for employers not currently offering coverage by allowing them to buy out-of-state policies.  Corzine framed this perfectly for the voters he needed to win over, morphing the issue into Christie denying women coverage for mammogram screening.

The whole thing is a bit of a stretch, and considering Christie's family has a history of breast cancer, I didn't think it'd be effective.  But Democrat women ate it up, and jumped ship like nobody's business.  Corzine's numbers among Democrats are up markedly since the summer, and even more notably, his numbers among Democratic-leaning women are up even more.

(Side note: This is precisely the reason why Christie was so hesitant to put plans out there for the news media to see.  Every issue is gone over with a fine-tooth comb, and anything that can be spun into something will be.)

Surely, the Christie scandals have taken their toll, as has the fact that Christie is getting outspent by Corzine like you wouldn't believe.  But a look at the numbers suggests that the mammogram issue, silly as it may sound, was what moved Corzine's numbers so strongly.  To use a football analogy, it was a great on-side kick that resulted in his team being down by 1 point.

But even though the scoreboard looks close, the last few moments of the campaign are challenging.  He needs another on-side kick here.  There are only a few weeks left in the campaign, and if people were voting today, Corzine would get virtually no share of the undecideds.  That's unlikely to change, considering the type of campaign Corzine is waging and needs to continue to wage.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Nah, New Jersey still has 21 counties, and Republicans have control of the Freeholder (legislative) Boards of about half. And even with Christie teetering, Republicans still look good to otherwise have their best year there in about a decade. They might even win a freeholder seat in Bergen! (gasp)

My work is for LD36 and not BCRO, but I do have a lot of interaction with them.  I must say, they are easily one of the most pathethic organizations ever.  First (actually I forget which was first), we give up the chance to easily beat McNerney by electing Caliguire and his slate over the Donovan one.  Then, we reward freeholder loser Bob Yudin with the county chairmanship, a position which he has been awful with.  Then, we cannot beat freakin Bernadette "28%" McPherson in the freeholder race.  Now, we have two candidates who I believe are running seperate campaigns.  What makes you think we'll actually win one?

LOL, yes, the BRCO is pathetic.  But even the Camden County and Middlesex GOP have won something by accident in the past. 

And I said "might," because it probably won't happen.  But it could.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Booker's best quality is that he was independent of the Sharpe James machine, which had figuratively been raping Newark for decades.  With James at the helm, decay was acceptable so long as the city's developers kept his pockets lined.

I like Booker lots, but let's be honest—his appeal comes mostly from how awful his predecessor was.  The Booker turn around happened almost instantly.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How about Dick Codey? Any chance of him running in 2013?

Codey is finished politically.  Though he will be trying to mount a comeback bid for Essex County Executive, so that should be entertaining enough.