Why do Democrats prefer Kansas to Nebraska?

[Roronoa D. Law]

As I’ve said time and time again. There is very little that separates Kansas from Nebraska with regards to major demographic indicators, wether it’s educational attainment, racial makeup, urbanisation, age, religion, political ID, ideological ID, etc. Additionally, both states have strong agricultural sectors. So the idea of Kansas becoming a Democratic state whilst Nebraska remains the way it is is unrealistic.

This idea of Kansas (and Utah) becoming a democratic state stems from this spergy method of extrapolating swings forward to future elections whilst ignoring or being unable to conceive “on the ground” realities of these areas.

Yeah, but even if Kansas swung by the same amount as 2016 in every future election, it would take 69 (haha funny number) years and 17 elections before it flipped blue lol.

That number is misleading since it does not account for a growing Hispanic population, growth in KC and Wichita, and younger whites in Kansas being more Democratic than previous generations.

[Roronoa D. Law]

As I’ve said time and time again. There is very little that separates Kansas from Nebraska with regards to major demographic indicators, wether it’s educational attainment, racial makeup, urbanisation, age, religion, political ID, ideological ID, etc. Additionally, both states have strong agricultural sectors. So the idea of Kansas becoming a Democratic state whilst Nebraska remains the way it is is unrealistic.

This idea of Kansas (and Utah) becoming a democratic state stems from this spergy method of extrapolating swings forward to future elections whilst ignoring or being unable to conceive “on the ground” realities of these areas.

Yeah, but even if Kansas swung by the same amount as 2016 in every future election, it would take 69 (haha funny number) years and 17 elections before it flipped blue lol.

That number is misleading since it does not account for a growing Hispanic population, growth in KC and Wichita, and younger whites in Kansas being more Democratic than previous generations.

You could literally say the same thing about NE with only three words interchanged (KC, Wichita, and Kansas for Omaha, Lincoln, and Nebraska). And okay, let's assume that the swing margin increases 0.10% each election (a pretty generous long term amount). It still takes...decades for it to flip. Now, could some big giant wave swing happen? Sure! But Kansas's contrasting demographics (Johnson County, but also lots of rural voters) makes that unlikely.

Contrasting demographics? The rural Kansas population is not growing it decreasing rapidly and if Wichita and KC metro continue moving the way as other metropolitan areas it doesn't look good for Republicans.