Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Live Blog, First round results expected at around 6PM tomorrow.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservative-leadership-party-live/article35125623/

[VPH]

It really will come down to Bernier and Scheer.

[Poirot]

Bernier has 79% chance of winning according to Tooclosetocall.
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2017/05/last-update-to-cpc-leadership.html

Voting intentions in his model comes from the Mainstreet poll.

Mainstreet: Bernier has a 85% chance of winning.

What numbers / results will you be watching?
According to Mainstreet the top three ranks seem to be set. The 4th spot could be interesting, if I attribute the correct colour on the chart, it could be between Chong and Lemieux.
The prediction for points by region has Leitch third in Quebec. I am interested also of the Scheer result  in Chaudière-Appalaches where dairy farmers and some MPs are not supporting the well known regional candidate.

I heard on CPAC Marc Emery (prince of pot) say he would like to run with Bernier as leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll be looking at the regional breaks of course. Looks like they'll putting the riding results up right away.

[DC Al Fine]

I'll be looking at the regional breaks of course. Looks like they'll putting the riding results up right away.

Awesome. Should be much more interesting than 2004. With so many candidates there should be all sorts of interesting riding results.

[trebor204]

Live Blog, First round results expected at around 6PM tomorrow.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservative-leadership-party-live/article35125623/

CBC is reporting that the polls close at 4pm (EST), results revealed at 5pm (EST)
Toronto Star is reporting the results could come around 7pm

[136or142]

My final prediction, with the relevant ballots.

First Ballot
1.Maxime Bernier, 31.2%
2.Andrew Scheer, 15.6
3.Erin O'Toole, 11.8
4.Kellie Leitch, 10.1
5.Lisa Raitt, 8.4
6.Michael Chong, 7.6
7.Brad Trost, 5.9
8.Steven Blaney, 3.5
9.Chris Alexander, 2.9
10.Pierre Lemieux, 1.8
11.Deepak Obhrai, 0.5
12.Andrew Saxton, 0.3
13.Rick Peterson 0.3

[136or142]

Subsequent ballots
1.Maxime Bernier, 32.1%
2.Andrew Scheer, 16.5
3.Erin O'Toole, 13.9
4.Kellie Leitch, 12.9
5.Lisa Raitt, 9.0
6.Michael Chong, 7.9
7.Brad Trost, 7.7

--------------------------------
1.Maxime Bernier, 36.3%
2.Andrew Scheer, 20.4
3.Erin O'Toole, 16.5
4.Kellie Leitch, 14.9
5.Lisa Raitt, 11.9

----------------------------------
1.Maxime Bernier, 41.7%
2.Andrew Scheer, 33.3
3.Erin O'Toole, 25.0

[136or142]

Final Ballot
1.Maxime Bernier, 53.6%
2.Andrew Scheer, 46.4

I don't normally like to gloat, and obviously the real balloting hasn't occurred yet, but LOL to all those who said that Maxime Bernier was regarded as a joke by all Conservatives outside of his own riding of Beauce.

[trebor204]

Results by Riding: (Once they announce a winner)
http://www.conservative.ca/leadership/en/results

[King of Kensington]

O'Leary on CBC is still talking about running in University-Rosedale.

[Poirot]

I don't think I will win the prediction game!

O'Leary 41
Bernier 32.5
Scheer 26.5

O'Leary 51
Bernier 49

The membership in Beauce went from 102 to 1519. With 16,412 members in Quebec that means Beauce riding counts for 9.25% of all members in the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary on CBC is still talking about running in University-Rosedale.

Seemed to confuse the riding for the old riding of Toronto Centre, talking about how it always goes Liberal. Most of the riding was carved out of Trinity-Spadina though.

[MaxQue]

I don't think I will win the prediction game!

O'Leary 41
Bernier 32.5
Scheer 26.5

O'Leary 51
Bernier 49

The membership in Beauce went from 102 to 1519. With 16,412 members in Quebec that means Beauce riding counts for 9.25% of all members in the province.

Irrelevent, remember every riding counts for 100 points, no matter if they have 5 or 5000 members.

[2952-0-0]

Stay classy, Conservatives.

[Barnes]

Bernier in first with 28.89% to Scheer's 21.82%.

[Vosem]

1st Ballot:
Deepak Obhrai 0.41%
Andrew Saxton 0.50%
Rick Peterson 0.65%
Kevin O'Leary 1.07%
Chris Alexander 1.12%
Steven Blaney 1.26%
Lisa Raitt 3.34%
Kellie Leitch 7.00%
Pierre Lemieux 7.38%
Michael Chong 7.55%
Brad Trost 8.35%
Erin O'Toole 10.65%
Andrew Scheer 21.82%
Maxime Bernier 28.89%

[2952-0-0]

That's a big surprise. At least Leitch is at laughable 7th place. And Lol @ O'Leary over performing three candidates.

[Barnes]

As was pretty clear, going to be a race between Bernier and Scheer.

[DC Al Fine]

The Socons, we live!

Also, everyone skim the riding results for non- Bernier or Scheer winners. Lisa Raitt won Sydney-Victoria and Cape Breton-Canso.

[Vosem]

Lots and lots of fun riding (and province) breakdowns on the Conservative Party of Canada webpage, but a particularly fascinating one I just encountered:
Beauce: Bernier 47.5, Scheer 46.6, Blaney 4.5, all others <1%.

Would be deeply amusing if Bernier wins over the objection of his own riding, especially since he seemed to be so popular there. Just by comparison:

Regina--Qu'Appelle: Scheer 82.0, Bernier 8.2, all others %.

[King of Kensington]

Figured that Kellie Leitch's "Trump from a teleprompter" campaign was kind of a media fabrication.

[Barnes]

Quite a bit weaker position for Bernier on the first ballot than some had predicted. He probably needed over a third on the first to run away with the result.

Obviously, he's in the lead of course.

[JerryArkansas]

The Socons, we live!

Also, everyone skim the riding results for non- Bernier or Scheer winners. Lisa Raitt won Sydney-Victoria and Cape Breton-Canso.

O'toole and Bernier tied in Yukon

[MaxQue]

In funny result, Beauce is 48-47 Bernier-Scheer