Looks like VA is 100% gone for Republicans.

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Jeb would have won it.

"Please clap" and "I keep toy turtles in my pocket" Jeb? The man who walks around Boston at night by himself, Jeb? Given what's been happening at VT, yeah, maybe but he would've lost the rest of the country.

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Virginia went just shy of D+5 this year. That's very good, all things considered.

This statement ignores the #NeverTrump effect, with Egg McMuffin taking 1% of the vote and Gary Johnson taking 3%. Egg McMuffin taking GOP voters is pretty obvious, and data in recent years has shown Libertarians here in Virginia largely take from the GOP as well. So let's do some math.

Trump's 45% + Egg McMuffin's 1% + 1% of Johnson's vote (We'll be extremely conservative with this one) = 47%. Now, studies have shown that the VP can make a 1% to 2% difference in the home-state. Let's say 1% (Still being conservative), and that gets you to either:

Clinton 49% to Trump 48% OR Clinton 50% to Trump 49%

Given that Clinton is projected to win by either 1% to 2% of the popular vote, this means Virginia is still basically even in PVI.

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So you're going to do all that and "not" add Stein voters or Johnson voters who would've support Clinton over Trump???

Uhhh....

As I stated, the majority of Libertarian votes in Virginia come from Republicans and most recently cost the GOP the 2014 Senate race. So if I did further breakdown on their vote, hypothetical Trump would've increased his margin. As for Stein, her voters very clearly were Anti-Clinton leftists, who voted for her out of spite to Clinton (Just like Egg McMuffin).

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As I and others have stated, the Democratic growth has stalled out already while Trump has proven he can really rally the rural vote. With the reforms Trump is seeking to do (Which will hurt NoVA) and his coming policy positions with regards to Sanctuary cities, refugee resettlement, deportations, etc I'd argue that in eight years, Virginia will be be a Republican-leaning tossup again.

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I've been saying this for years.  NOVA is getting too big for Republicans to win.

The data says otherwise. Consider Loudoun County, which last cycle went for Obama by about 4%. This election? Clinton by 17%. As someone on this forum stated, numbers like that would normally suggest the Dems would be winning here by double digits, which obviously didn't happen as the rest of the Commonwealth turned out in enough numbers to hold her at 5%. This was with the #NeverTrump effect of Egg McMuffin taking 1% of the normally Republican vote for sure, and with the "Home-State" bonus of VP Kaine.

Simply put, Virginia is still basically tied at the moment. NoVA has already been stalling out the last few years, and I think a President Trump's policies will only hasten that while I expect a lot of the demographic changes wrought by settling Central Americans here to be reversed. In short, don't be counting Republicans out here in our Commonwealth anytime soon.

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That's absurd.  You might feel some kind of euphoria based on the election results but you might need to come back down to Earth...  Hillary won the popular vote... probably by close to 2 million votes by the time everything is counted.

And yet, she was campaigning in the Midwest where Trump won long before the Comey letter.

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It's slowing down, sorry to burst your bubble.

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Trump won a plurality of the college educated nationally, while turning rural voters out in record numbers. We know for sure the second happened here in the Commonwealth, but we're waiting on data for the first one. With NoVA tapped out and likely to stay as such of even decline while some of the demographic effects are reversed and if rural turnout remains high, I'd say it's a safe bet to make.

And by the way, I'm from one of those rural, stagnant counties. We held the line and contained NoVA to 5% and the majority of our Congressional delegation will remain Republican. We're far from beat.

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What evidence do you have that NOVA's growth is stalling.  Also you keep harping on Clinton's 5% win in NOVA as if that somehow proves that Virginia is lean Republican.  When in fact it shows it's now to the left of states like Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine... which have all been either swing states or lean democrat for a while.

Do you even bother to read what I post?

I linked to a Washington Post article that showed NoVA's population growth has stopped. Whether you can accept that into your reality or not is your own problem, but the facts are the facts. Given the oncoming reforms Trump intends to make will likely effect NoVA the most, I'd say the stagnation is here to stay for at least a decade.

As for her 5% win, I also explained that out for you. The #NeverTrump effect definitely cost the GOP 1% of the vote here, which would've made the election 50% to 46% on it's own. Now add in the VP candidate effect from Kaine, which has historically gave a ticket 1% to 2% in the VP's home-state. That alone basically ties the state up, and now add in the fact the national popular vote margin is 1% to 2% as well, and you find Virginia's PVI is basically still even. This was with NoVA turning out in record numbers for Clinton, mind you.

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Virginia is GONE for Republicans.

I hate to repeat myself, but did you even bother to read what I posted?

From the Washington Post article:

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So yes, NoVA has stalled out and appears set to decline. Given the Trump agenda, I think this will be set in stone over the coming decade. Despite NoVA voting for Clinton in record numbers, once you accounted for various factors, the data shows the state was basically tied thanks to massive turnout elsewhere by Republicans. So no, Virginia is not gone for Republicans anytime soon.

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Your article talks specifically about Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria.   It doesn't mention Loudon or Prince William at all, neither of which have stalled out at all.

Loudon County only grew by around 8,000 people in 2013, and several sources have stated it's been growing even less since then and that it's positive birth rate is about to slip as well. Take in note, even at 8,000 in population growth, the losses in the three counties you mention pretty much wipe out in gains in Loudon. As my article also noted, the declines are about to get even steeper soon.

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Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax are declining. What other counties do you reference here?

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With NoVA about to enter into a strong decline, any gains here will probably be wiped out in the grand scheme. Even if they aren't, I've yet to read anywhere about Richmond gaining tens of thousands of new residents, which is what would be required to achieve what you're peddling.