Looks like VA is 100% gone for Republicans.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     We probably should not judge the future election performance of a certain state based on the trend line in one election.

[EpicHistory]

As I and others have stated, the Democratic growth has stalled out already while Trump has proven he can really rally the rural vote. With the reforms Trump is seeking to do (Which will hurt NoVA) and his coming policy positions with regards to Sanctuary cities, refugee resettlement, deportations, etc I'd argue that in eight years, Virginia will be be a Republican-leaning tossup again.

[Mr. Smith]

No, Kaine saved the state and Clinton was an okay fit for NOVA.

Sanders would've lost it and Nevada and thusly lost the election anyway, with only a slightly better electoral performance as consolation.

[EpicHistory]

I've been saying this for years.  NOVA is getting too big for Republicans to win.

The data says otherwise. Consider Loudoun County, which last cycle went for Obama by about 4%. This election? Clinton by 17%. As someone on this forum stated, numbers like that would normally suggest the Dems would be winning here by double digits, which obviously didn't happen as the rest of the Commonwealth turned out in enough numbers to hold her at 5%. This was with the #NeverTrump effect of Egg McMuffin taking 1% of the normally Republican vote for sure, and with the "Home-State" bonus of VP Kaine.

Simply put, Virginia is still basically tied at the moment. NoVA has already been stalling out the last few years, and I think a President Trump's policies will only hasten that while I expect a lot of the demographic changes wrought by settling Central Americans here to be reversed. In short, don't be counting Republicans out here in our Commonwealth anytime soon.

[EpicHistory]

That's absurd.  You might feel some kind of euphoria based on the election results but you might need to come back down to Earth...  Hillary won the popular vote... probably by close to 2 million votes by the time everything is counted.

And yet, she was campaigning in the Midwest where Trump won long before the Comey letter.

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It's slowing down, sorry to burst your bubble.

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Trump won a plurality of the college educated nationally, while turning rural voters out in record numbers. We know for sure the second happened here in the Commonwealth, but we're waiting on data for the first one. With NoVA tapped out and likely to stay as such of even decline while some of the demographic effects are reversed and if rural turnout remains high, I'd say it's a safe bet to make.

And by the way, I'm from one of those rural, stagnant counties. We held the line and contained NoVA to 5% and the majority of our Congressional delegation will remain Republican. We're far from beat.

[EpicHistory]

What evidence do you have that NOVA's growth is stalling.  Also you keep harping on Clinton's 5% win in NOVA as if that somehow proves that Virginia is lean Republican.  When in fact it shows it's now to the left of states like Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine... which have all been either swing states or lean democrat for a while.

Do you even bother to read what I post?

I linked to a Washington Post article that showed NoVA's population growth has stopped. Whether you can accept that into your reality or not is your own problem, but the facts are the facts. Given the oncoming reforms Trump intends to make will likely effect NoVA the most, I'd say the stagnation is here to stay for at least a decade.

As for her 5% win, I also explained that out for you. The #NeverTrump effect definitely cost the GOP 1% of the vote here, which would've made the election 50% to 46% on it's own. Now add in the VP candidate effect from Kaine, which has historically gave a ticket 1% to 2% in the VP's home-state. That alone basically ties the state up, and now add in the fact the national popular vote margin is 1% to 2% as well, and you find Virginia's PVI is basically still even. This was with NoVA turning out in record numbers for Clinton, mind you.

[Nyvin]

What evidence do you have that NOVA's growth is stalling.  Also you keep harping on Clinton's 5% win in NOVA as if that somehow proves that Virginia is lean Republican.  When in fact it shows it's now to the left of states like Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine... which have all been either swing states or lean democrat for a while.

Do you even bother to read what I post?

I linked to a Washington Post article that showed NoVA's population growth has stopped. Whether you can accept that into your reality or not is your own problem, but the facts are the facts. Given the oncoming reforms Trump intends to make will likely effect NoVA the most, I'd say the stagnation is here to stay for at least a decade.

As for her 5% win, I also explained that out for you. The #NeverTrump effect definitely cost the GOP 1% of the vote here, which would've made the election 50% to 46% on it's own. Now add in the VP candidate effect from Kaine, which has historically gave a ticket 1% to 2% in the VP's home-state. That alone basically ties the state up, and now add in the fact the national popular vote margin is 1% to 2% as well, and you find Virginia's PVI is basically still even. This was with NoVA turning out in record numbers for Clinton, mind you.

The population growth is still absolutely located in the NOVA area....Loudon was the fastest growing county from 2014-2015 and Prince William was second,  together they added more than 18,000 people and that's more than a THIRD of the total growth in the entire state of Virginia in two counties.   Both of the counties voted Clinton by double digit margins (in the case of Prince William it's currently a full 20 point margin...).

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

Even looking at the facts beyond those two...Fairfax was the 4th fastest growing, Arlington was the 6th fastest growing, and Alexandria was 8th.    

And then even outside NOVA a good chunk of the growth is in the Richmond area, Richmond city (79-15 Clinton) was the third fastest growing county (ind city) in the state.   Chesterfield County (suburb of Richmond) was the 5th fastest growing, and that was just a two point win for Trump.

So the top ten fastest growing areas:

1. Loudon (NOVA)
2. Prince William (NOVA)
3. Richmond City (Richmond)
4. Fairfax (NOVA)
5. Chesterfield (Richmond)
6.  Arlington (NOVA)
7. Henrico (Richmond)
8. Alexandria (NOVA)
9. Stafford County
10. Chesapeake

8 out of the top 10 fastest growing areas are either in NOVA or Richmond.   Of all 8 of them Trump only won Chesterfield 48.5% to 46.2%.

This is while almost the entire western third of Virginia is losing population.

Virginia is GONE for Republicans.

[EpicHistory]

Virginia is GONE for Republicans.

I hate to repeat myself, but did you even bother to read what I posted?

From the Washington Post article:

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So yes, NoVA has stalled out and appears set to decline. Given the Trump agenda, I think this will be set in stone over the coming decade. Despite NoVA voting for Clinton in record numbers, once you accounted for various factors, the data shows the state was basically tied thanks to massive turnout elsewhere by Republicans. So no, Virginia is not gone for Republicans anytime soon.

[Nyvin]

Virginia is GONE for Republicans.

I hate to repeat myself, but did you even bother to read what I posted?

From the Washington Post article:

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So yes, NoVA has stalled out and appears set to decline. Given the Trump agenda, I think this will be set in stone over the coming decade. Despite NoVA voting for Clinton in record numbers, once you accounted for various factors, the data shows the state was basically tied thanks to massive turnout elsewhere by Republicans. So no, Virginia is not gone for Republicans anytime soon.

Your article talks specifically about Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria.   It doesn't mention Loudon or Prince William at all, neither of which have stalled out at all.   

Even then,  the rest of NOVA outside of Loudon and Prince William are STILL growing faster than the rest of the state.   

...AND you never mention the part of the Richmond area getting a lot of the growth that's left outside of NOVA.

[EpicHistory]

Your article talks specifically about Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria.   It doesn't mention Loudon or Prince William at all, neither of which have stalled out at all.

Loudon County only grew by around 8,000 people in 2013, and several sources have stated it's been growing even less since then and that it's positive birth rate is about to slip as well. Take in note, even at 8,000 in population growth, the losses in the three counties you mention pretty much wipe out in gains in Loudon. As my article also noted, the declines are about to get even steeper soon.

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Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax are declining. What other counties do you reference here?

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With NoVA about to enter into a strong decline, any gains here will probably be wiped out in the grand scheme. Even if they aren't, I've yet to read anywhere about Richmond gaining tens of thousands of new residents, which is what would be required to achieve what you're peddling.

[Nyvin]

Your article talks specifically about Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria.   It doesn't mention Loudon or Prince William at all, neither of which have stalled out at all.

Loudon County only grew by around 8,000 people in 2013, and several sources have stated it's been growing even less since then and that it's positive birth rate is about to slip as well. Take in note, even at 8,000 in population growth, the losses in the three counties you mention pretty much wipe out in gains in Loudon. As my article also noted, the declines are about to get even steeper soon.

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Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax are declining. What other counties do you reference here?

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With NoVA about to enter into a strong decline, any gains here will probably be wiped out in the grand scheme. Even if they aren't, I've yet to read anywhere about Richmond gaining tens of thousands of new residents, which is what would be required to achieve what you're peddling.

No area in NOVA anywhere has had population decline, or is set to anytime soon.    You're making up myths to suit your agenda here.   If it grew by 8000 in 2013 than it's growth has SPED UP not slowed down, it grew by 12,000 between 2014-2015 as the census site shows.

And the point of mentioning Richmond is that most of what's left of the state's growth outside of NOVA is in the Richmond area....meaning about ~80% of the growth in the state are in places that trended Democratic from 2012-2016.   

Again...Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria are NOT declining,  their growth has just slowed down recently, but they're STILL among the fastest growing areas in the state.

[SunSt0rm]

No, Trump lost Virginia by 5% while he is losing the popular vote by 1%. You also have to account the Kaine effect and the fact that Trump is a bad fit for Virignia, especially NOVA. If the republicans can nominate a moderate republican and win the popular vote, they can definetely win Virginia.

[LimoLiberal]

I've been saying this for years.  NOVA is getting too big for Republicans to win.

The data says otherwise. Consider Loudoun County, which last cycle went for Obama by about 4%. This election? Clinton by 17%. As someone on this forum stated, numbers like that would normally suggest the Dems would be winning here by double digits, which obviously didn't happen as the rest of the Commonwealth turned out in enough numbers to hold her at 5%. This was with the #NeverTrump effect of Egg McMuffin taking 1% of the normally Republican vote for sure, and with the "Home-State" bonus of VP Kaine.

Simply put, Virginia is still basically tied at the moment. NoVA has already been stalling out the last few years, and I think a President Trump's policies will only hasten that while I expect a lot of the demographic changes wrought by settling Central Americans here to be reversed. In short, don't be counting Republicans out here in our Commonwealth anytime soon.

You are incredibly stupid if you think Arlington County, VA is going to let president Trump deport Central American immigrants. As an Arlington resident.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the pubs are going to be competetive in VA again if the democrats totally change their plattform...or if the pubs too.

[MT Treasurer]

Here is the swing map for VA this year, btw:



So the Democratic swings in the Richmond area and NoVA were enough for the state to vote even more Democratic than in 2012, despite the fact that Trump improved over Romney everywhere else.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Nevada and Colorado probably are, too.

LOL far from it, I believe both will be in play and could turn red in 2020, especially Nevada. Depending on how President TRUMP handles the cannabis industry, Colorado could turn red as well in 2020. Virginia will be tougher but NV & CO will def be in play as HRC won both states by LESS than 3%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

no....CO is gone for anyone talking like trump.

actual recent numbers:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/63746/183722/Web01/en/summary.html

[Cashew]

If the republicans can nominate a moderate republican and win the popular vote, they can definetely win Virginia.

Stop. The republican party is moving ever farther from moderation ideologically, so to claim that the libertarian voters will return home is nonsensical.

[Wiz in Wis]

Virginia is trending Democrat, as is Georgia, Texas, Arizona, California, and Colorado. It's not set in stone, but pretending it isn't happening is about as smart as Democrats ignoring their issues in the Rust Belt.

[Dr. Arch]

no....CO is gone for anyone talking like trump.

actual recent numbers:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/63746/183722/Web01/en/summary.html

Wow...

[Timothy87]

No, Virginia is not lost to Republicans. The massive swing in North Virginia is to a large degree Republicans and republican leaning independents who hated Trump and wanted him to lose. I know tons of Republicans in Virginia and none of them voted Trump. They all voted Johnson, McMullin or Clinton. They did not become democrats

[Person Man]

No, Virginia is not lost to Republicans. The massive swing in North Virginia is to a large degree Republicans and republican leaning independents who hated Trump and wanted him to lose. I know tons of Republicans in Virginia and none of them voted Trump. They all voted Johnson, McMullin or Clinton. They did not become democrats

That's how it starts.

[Nyvin]

Kinda weird Albemarle County and Charlottesville city are both still massively Democratic, and even trended "more" democratic at that.

It'd be interesting to see precinct results in that area,  I know green energy is big there.   Is there any other reason it's such an awkward stronghold for the Dems?