McCain/Barbour vs. Obama/Daschle

[pragmatic liberal]

On the Democratic side, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois clinches the Democratic nomination after winning the Iowa Caucuses, the South Carolina Primary and taking the majority of delegates on Feb. 5.

On the Republican side, Gov. Mike Huckabee wins the Iowa Caucuses. His victory badly damages Romney, while Sen. John McCain comes in a surprising first in New Hampshire. Huckabee wins in the South, but McCain wins a majority of the Feb. 5 contests, staging a remarkable political comeback.

For their running mates, Obama selects former Senate Majority Leader, Tom Daschle, a close political confidante and mentor who despite his 2004 defeat remains close with Congressional Democrats. (Note: this is Obama going with a Cheney-style pick, an older, safe, establishment choice.) Although the choice is received well by Washington Democrats, many in the party's base are underwhelmed. ("Daschle?!" was the lead post on dKos when the choice was announced.)

McCain chooses between Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi. Ultimately, McCain chooses to shore up his base of support in the South, picking Barbour.

How does this matchup fare in the general election?

Maps?

[gorkay]

I want to say Obama, since all indications are that it's going to be a Democratic year... but I wonder if his lack of experience might really hurt him against someone as experienced and savvy as McCain. The one thing that could really hurt McCain is his stance on the war (although it actually is probably less extreme and more sensible than Obama's).
I think both of them could find better vice-presidential candidates, however.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

McCain holds on to win 274-264

[agcatter]

McCain would never choose Barber.  He already has the South.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

McCain could also carry at least New Hampshire in the North East. Polls have him beating Hillary in states like Massachusetts, so i could see him carrying Penn and maybe another NE state.

[Politico]

No way Obama chooses a spineless, washed-up ex-Senator like Daschle. He'll go with somebody like Jim Webb, somebody who has strong foreign policy credentials, or a governor/ex-governor.

[Person Man]

Daschle?

Then again...Barbour?

Daschle is too corrupt, so I think it would be much like this-

McCain would do amazing in the west and NH and Barbour would put many high 50s states over 60 - It would be the first time in American history where one party does progressively better with two candidates.

Traditional Red-Blue
238-300,
47.1-52.1-0.8

Swing 15-

Arkansas- Already Swung at Nomming. 42-57
Nevada- 47-52
New Mexico- 47-52
Colorado 46-53
Florida 46-53
Iowa  49-50
Minnesota- 50-49
Ohio 49.2- 49.6
Pennsylvania 50-49
New Hampshire 48-51
Wisconsin 49-50
Virginia 45-53
West Virginia- 57-42
Michigan- 50-49
Misery- 44-55

No way Obama chooses a spineless, washed-up ex-Senator like Daschle. He'll go with somebody like Jim Webb, somebody who has strong foreign policy credentials, or a governor/ex-governor.

If you have Jim Webb- that could win military and libertarian swing states. You will probably be able to keep all of what Gore won plus CO and VA...and FL

Traditional Red-Blue
308-230,
50.7-48.5-0.8

Swing 15-

Arkansas-47-52
Nevada- 49-50
New Mexico- 49-50
Colorado 50-49
Florida 50-49
Iowa  50-49
Minnesota- 52-47
Ohio 49.2- 49.6
Pennsylvania 51-48
New Hampshire 51-48
Wisconsin 50-49
Virginia 49.5-49.3
West Virginia- 49-50
Michigan- 51-48
Misery- 46-53

[Person Man]

Daschle?

Then again...Barbour?

Daschle is too corrupt, so I think it would be much like this-

McCain would do amazing in the west and NH and Barbour would put many high 50s states over 60 - It would be the first time in American history where one party does progressively better with two candidates.

Traditional Red-Blue
238-300,
47.1-52.1-0.8

Swing 15-

Arkansas- Already Swung at Nomming. 42-57
Nevada- 47-52
New Mexico- 47-52
Colorado 46-53
Florida 46-53
Iowa  49-50
Minnesota- 50-49
Ohio 49.2- 49.6
Pennsylvania 50-49
New Hampshire 48-51
Wisconsin 49-50
Virginia 45-53
West Virginia- 57-42
Michigan- 50-49
Misery- 44-55

No way Obama chooses a spineless, washed-up ex-Senator like Daschle. He'll go with somebody like Jim Webb, somebody who has strong foreign policy credentials, or a governor/ex-governor.

If you have Jim Webb- that could win military and libertarian swing states. You will probably be able to keep all of what Gore won plus CO and VA...and FL

Traditional Red-Blue
308-230,
50.7-48.5-0.8

Swing 15-

Arkansas-47-52
Nevada- 49-50
New Mexico- 49-50
Colorado 50-49
Florida 50-49
Iowa  50-49
Minnesota- 52-47
Ohio 49.2- 49.6
Pennsylvania 51-48
New Hampshire 51-48
Wisconsin 50-49
Virginia 49.5-49.3
West Virginia- 49-50
Michigan- 51-48
Misery- 46-53

[JSojourner]

I can't see Barbour being chosen.  Daschle, similarly.  But given those choices, this is my map.  I think McCain does very well against Obama.