West Virginia (March 2-6): Clinton 44, Sanders 31%

[RBH]

West Virginia polling is really shaky at times. It just doesn't get attention because they're shaky in lower profile elections. Like "John Kerry trails by 5" shaky. Like "Obama trails by 14 vs Romney" shaky.

Fortunately for Clinton, Sanders isn't gonna absorb all the protest votes himself. There'll be parts of the state voting for Judd/De La Fuente/O'Malley, or some voting for Paul Ferrell (a dude from Huntington, WV) if WV still lists hometowns on the ballot. If the election was Clinton/Sanders one on one in some states, Sanders probably carries some of the "plurality Clinton" counties in places like Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana or North Carolina.

[RBH]

West Virginia has a primary open to Democrats and Independents.

There's 579,000 Democrats and 247,000 NPA voters in West Virginia. So that's 70/30 assuming all the NPAs vote in the Dem primary. But NPAs can vote in the Republican primary too. So.. probably closer to 80/20.