Saddam Verdict Could Be November Surprise

[Mr. Morden]

-There's a good chance the Sunnis are going to riot like mad

Yes, that's a very good point.  It's quite possible that the Sunni insurgents have a big "response" planned for when the verdict is read.  At the same time, I expect that the verdict will prompt celebrations among the Shiites and Kurds.  So it's quite possible that the media will cover this in a way that reinforces in people's minds the fact that Iraq is so terribly divided, with little chance of national reconciliation any time in the near future.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush didn't breeze to victory in 2004 even though that election was only months before Saddam was captured in a spider hole.

Months *before*?  Wasn't Saddam captured in December 2003?

[Mr. Morden]

Re: Saddam's capture in December 2003: That was also around the time Howard Dean's presidential campaign began its meltdown.  Some were arguing at the time that the two were related.  That the temporary boost in optimism about the war scared some Democratic primary voters out of nominating a candidate who might be too dovish to win the general election.