McCain / Dole 2008

[Jerseyrules]

So analysts typically agree that the 2 main reasons why McCain picked Palin was because:

1) She was a high-risk potentially high-payoff game-changer when Johnny was behind in the polls
2) He wanted to tap into the Hillary Clinton voters.

Many also agree Palin hurt him severely.  I'm not asking if he could've won, but had he chosen Elizabeth Dole as his running mate, would he have done better?  Would he have any chance of winning?

[Jerseyrules]

Would he have a shot at Florida?  OTL it was pretty close; within 3%

[Jerseyrules]

Yep