Is this map fair?

[Jacobtm]

Always better to seek the wisdom of crowds. Of course, anything can happen, a candidate could die, some terrible scandal could break, but assuming it's just regular old campaigning and nothing tremendously unexpected occurs, is this map a fair prediction of the result?

Dark = safe
Normal = likely
Grey = tossup

[War on Want]

A few mistake imo but pretty fair.

[Keystone Phil]

PA safe? Wrong.

[SPQR]

PA and NH should be lean,for the rest it's ok.

[Lincoln Republican]

PA safe? Wrong.

Agreed.  Even Rendell admitted while talking to John King, CNN, at the convention that Obama has to sell his message, and, of course, he believes he can.  I was surprised, Rendell was very candid, and did not come out with the standard line that they will win PA.  What I got from his remarks was that the state is competitive, but that Obama will be able to sell his economic message there.

[True Democrat]

I'd change Nevada to toss-up and Pennsylvania to lean.

[The Vorlon]

A few quibbles here and there, but basically a sane and reasonable map.

I'd put new Hampshire as lean Democrat, Not so sure Pennsylvania is "safe" Democrat - I'd put it as more "likely"

if we really want to quibble Maine 1 shoud be a lean not a likely

On balance, a few disagreements at the margins, but not too far from reality.

[Beet]

I'd say Nevada and Florida are a tad closer than Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, but within the general color scheme they fit.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Is this just in general? If so, IN & MT should be safe while CO, PA, WI, & WV should be leans, & NV should be a toss-up.

[J. J.]

A few quibbles here and there, but basically a sane and reasonable map.

I'd put new Hampshire as lean Democrat, Not so sure Pennsylvania is "safe" Democrat - I'd put it as more "likely"

if we really want to quibble Maine 1 shoud be a lean not a likely

On balance, a few disagreements at the margins, but not too far from reality.

Good to see you, Vorlon.

I would list PA as "lean," IA as safe, MT as safe.

This is probably a seven state race at this point, NH, PA, MI, OH, VA, CO and NM.  I suspect that either or both PA and MI will off the list within a fortnight.

[Jacobtm]

About NH: No recent polls have been outside the MOE, so I'm not comfortable saying that it's particularly likely to go for Obama if we allow for a McCain campaign that is well run straight through.

PA and WI: All polls show Obama winning.

NV: I can understand why it may look like a tossup, though it's a little bit more pro-McCain in polling than NH is pro-Obama. Very fine line here, though, but its Republican record sort of prejudices me to give this to McCain in a close race, which is what I'm assuming.

MT, MO, IN and NC: All clearly favor McCain, but all have shown some surprising polls, and if the McCain campaign falters, and Obama pulls off a national win of 4-5%, these states are definitely in play.

MI: Nearly a flip-image of NC, nearly all polls show Obama ahead, but many are close, some show McCain ahead, and it isn't hard to imagine a bad Obama campaign being beaten here. Though still favoring Obama, just as NC etc. favor McCain.

CO: After initially seeming like an easy Obama pickup, the realization that Obama is less than perfect seems to have reset this state to even.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

PA and WI should be lean.

[Sam Spade]

A few quibbles here and there, but basically a sane and reasonable map.

I'd put new Hampshire as lean Democrat, Not so sure Pennsylvania is "safe" Democrat - I'd put it as more "likely"

if we really want to quibble Maine 1 shoud be a lean not a likely

On balance, a few disagreements at the margins, but not too far from reality.

You're back???   

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

A few quibbles here and there, but basically a sane and reasonable map.

I'd put new Hampshire as lean Democrat, Not so sure Pennsylvania is "safe" Democrat - I'd put it as more "likely"

if we really want to quibble Maine 1 shoud be a lean not a likely

On balance, a few disagreements at the margins, but not too far from reality.

You're back???   

Sweet!

[Ronnie]

Change Iowa and Indiana to safe, and Nevada to tossup.

[Nym90]

A few quibbles here and there, but basically a sane and reasonable map.

I'd put new Hampshire as lean Democrat, Not so sure Pennsylvania is "safe" Democrat - I'd put it as more "likely"

if we really want to quibble Maine 1 shoud be a lean not a likely

On balance, a few disagreements at the margins, but not too far from reality.

You're back???   

He was never gone.

[riceowl]

omg i almost entirely blame the Vorlon for getting me interested in politics.  hooray!

[Gustaf]

Too conservative, imo. I assume you mean McCain v Obama and not "Generic Republican v Generic Democrat". I would add Nevada and Michigan to the tossups. The shades I would have to think more about.

[Gustaf]

And it is good to see the Vorlon back. Hope you'll be around more for the final months.

[Jacobtm]

Too conservative, imo. I assume you mean McCain v Obama and not "Generic Republican v Generic Democrat". I would add Nevada and Michigan to the tossups. The shades I would have to think more about.

Too conservative as in assuming past results indicate future results?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well here's mine and you know that its probably not fair so judge that way: