Is there any way Democrats could avoid a net loss of senate seats in 2024?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 2024 map doesn't look good for Democrats, but this far out a lot of things can change.

They have potentially vulnerable seats to defend in NV, AZ, MT, WI, MI, PA, OH, WV, and ME, with an outside chance NJ, DE, MN, or NM come into play.

On the other hand, it seems like the only 2 potentially competative seats the GOP have to defend are TX and FL, and even then, both of these seem like they would be uphill battles for Democrats. It seems like with current polarization, it's unlikely Democrats will break through in MO, TN, IN, ND, NE, or some other red state again.

They already had a net loss of 2 in 2018 and that was in a D + 8 environment and the GOP not taking WV, MT, or OH seriously

So are they bound to lose seats come 2024, or will they pretty much lose seats no matter what?

[Frenchrepublican]

In theory yes

In the reality it's almost impossible

[Mr.Phips]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

[Xing]

The only way would pretty much require either a blue wave or massive recruitment failures on the part of Republicans. The absolute best case scenario for Democrats would be gaining FL and TX while losing WV, and that would probably require Biden's popularity to be close to 60%, so... yeah, it's probably safe to say that won't happen. Reasonably, I think the best that Democrats can hope for would be minor losses. If they have a god year, they could still hold ME/MI/PA/WI (as well as AZ/NV), and maybe one of MT/OH, which would mean that they'd lose 2-3 seats. Maybe they could pick up one Republican seat as well in a very good year, but honestly, that's probably a stretch. I'll say R+2 is probably the best Democrats can hope for.

[Roll Roons]

It's going to very, very tough. WV is looking like a near-certain Republican pickup, even if Manchin runs again. Brown and Tester will have dogfights, but both are battle-tested and should not be counted out.

Don't expect the Florida Democrats to get their s**t together. And I think this year's results proved that Texas is still a fundamentally Republican state, albeit less so than it was in the Bush/Obama era. I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz retired to run for president again, which would allow someone stronger like Crenshaw to run and possibly improve Republican chances of holding it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hold everything but WV and OH, then win two out of the following three: FL, OH and TX. Requires a really strong national environment (relative to the plausible range for an incumbent party), although not an implausible one at this stage.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s going to be really tough for them to hold WV/OH and flip both of TX/FL. The rest should be very doable in a great environment for Democrats.

My best guess is -WV, -OH, +TX, so R+1 for their realistic best-case scenario.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

[Left Wing]

Only losing WV and gaining TX is the easiest way for them to break even.

[Xing]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

I'd argue that Baldwin has more potential to overperform the top of the ticket than Stabenow.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

I'd argue that Baldwin has more potential to overperform the top of the ticket than Stabenow.

I'd also argue that Wisconsin will continue to move to Michigan's right.

Gary Peters barely won re-election, after all. Baldwin is far from out of the woods.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

With Harris as the nominee? Of course not!
Even in a narrow Harris win, I think GOP wins MI, WI, OH, MT, WV

[Xing]

Queen Debbie Levin is a MI institution, she ain’t goin’ anywhere

Can she ride a motorcycle, though?

I'd also argue that Wisconsin will continue to move to Michigan's right.

Gary Peters barely won re-election, after all. Baldwin is far from out of the woods.

I'm not sure Wisconsin will trend more Republican than Michigan, though. I wouldn't expect it to vote more than a couple of points right of Michigan, and that could easily mean Stabenow losing while Baldwin narrowly hangs on. Of course Baldwin isn't safe, but Stabenow is definitely vulnerable as well.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

If Dems lose those states in the Presidential race they are probably losing the White House.

[Tekken_Guy]

Queen Debbie Levin is a MI institution, she ain’t goin’ anywhere

Can she ride a motorcycle, though?

I'd also argue that Wisconsin will continue to move to Michigan's right.

Gary Peters barely won re-election, after all. Baldwin is far from out of the woods.

I'm not sure Wisconsin will trend more Republican than Michigan, though. I wouldn't expect it to vote more than a couple of points right of Michigan, and that could easily mean Stabenow losing while Baldwin narrowly hangs on. Of course Baldwin isn't safe, but Stabenow is definitely vulnerable as well.

I honestly think Stabenow retires after this term, opening the door for a stronger candidate like Slotkin. I do think Wisconsin is more likely to flip than Michigan at the senate level.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

If Dems lose those states in the Presidential race they are probably losing the White House.

If they lose all three yes, but I could see Harris winning with Biden - 2 of PA, MI, WI if she holds AZ and GA

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

If Dems lose those states in the Presidential race they are probably losing the White House.

If they lose all three, then probably. But if they hold onto AZ, GA, NE-2 and pick up NC while holding all of the Hillary states, they're at 274. They can afford to lose all 3, and even 1 or 2 gives them a cushion to losing other states.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

If Dems lose those states in the Presidential race they are probably losing the White House.

If they lose all three yes, but I could see Harris winning with Biden - 2 of PA, MI, WI if she holds AZ and GA

I don’t think a Dem is winning AZ and losing any one of PA, MI, or WI.  I could maybe see GA staying D in that scenario, but not AZ.  The trends in AZ are not as good for Dems as GA.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

Casey can probably survive even if Harris / Biden were to lose PA, as long it remains tight

[Tekken_Guy]

Dems are not losing more than OH, WV, and MT unless they are also losing the Presidential race.

Disagree here. PA, MI, and especially WI are likely flipping if the GOP carries the respective states in the election.

Casey can probably survive even if Harris / Biden were to lose PA, as long it remains tight

I agree, but even he probably won't outrun them by much. And if he retires, it could very well flip.

[Figueira]

Basically Democrats would have to win at least three of TX/FL/OH/MT/WV, while holding everything else. Possible, but not especially likely.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It’s going to be really tough for them to hold WV/OH and flip both of TX/FL. The rest should be very doable in a great environment for Democrats.

My best guess is -WV, -OH, +TX, so R+1 for their realistic best-case scenario.

This but add MT to the losses.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’s going to be really tough for them to hold WV/OH and flip both of TX/FL. The rest should be very doable in a great environment for Democrats.

My best guess is -WV, -OH, +TX, so R+1 for their realistic best-case scenario.

This but add MT to the losses.

I expect them to lose MT but it should be significantly easier for Democrats than the other four, especially WV. If holding WV is still going to be considered a serious prospect, MS shouldn’t be ruled out either (n.b. I’m ruling out both for Democrats).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate is going the way of the House, D's have plenty of 50 yr old Senators and Rs are losing seats to retirements, D's will eventually get enough seats to achieve their Supermajority status and win DC Statehood and Crt packing.

We know trickled down economics doesn't work in a post Covid Environment, giving tax cuts to millionaires, doesn't trickle down to consumers.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Queen Debbie Levin is a MI institution, she ain’t goin’ anywhere

Can she ride a motorcycle, though?

I'd also argue that Wisconsin will continue to move to Michigan's right.

Gary Peters barely won re-election, after all. Baldwin is far from out of the woods.

I'm not sure Wisconsin will trend more Republican than Michigan, though. I wouldn't expect it to vote more than a couple of points right of Michigan, and that could easily mean Stabenow losing while Baldwin narrowly hangs on. Of course Baldwin isn't safe, but Stabenow is definitely vulnerable as well.

I honestly think Stabenow retires after this term, opening the door for a stronger candidate like Slotkin. I do think Wisconsin is more likely to flip than Michigan at the senate level.

If Slotkin's district can be made more favorable for a Democratic successor (so that a generic D wouldn't have a problem winning it), she would be an ideal statewide candidate.