Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[houseonaboat]

Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election.

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1059905876281188355

If Taylor Swift carries Phil Bredesen to the Senate, does she become the 2020 Democratic frontrunner by default (Constitutional age requirements be damned)?

[houseonaboat]

I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?

PredictIt commentors make people on this board like like Rove and Axelrod.

[houseonaboat]

Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW.

Democrats win both. Donnelly wins by a larger margin than Tester in MT, McGrath wins by 4.

[houseonaboat]

Monroe County's hours are extended until 7, Marion County traditionally reports a bit late and Lake County reports very late. So don't make too much of the early hours yet; until the Dem counties come in it'll be hard to tell.

We know that there's high turnout across the board. Question is if Donnelly's high urban/suburban turnout cancels out Braun's performance in the rurals.

[houseonaboat]

McGrath is doing really well in Fayette. Up 61-37 with 33% in, Clinton only won 51-48.

[houseonaboat]

Lol Decision Desk is down.

[houseonaboat]

I think what some of you are forgetting is that Donnelly won by 6% in 2012, so he can afford to underperform his 2012 benchmarks. Obviously not by a ton, but still.

people are panicking when most of IN hasn't even reported yet, and the dumb models at 538/NYT aren't really sensitive to that, so it's an "All is lost" 2016 narrative.

party doesn't start until 7, 7:30.

[houseonaboat]

McGrath is up 7 with 40% in. Wow.

[houseonaboat]

McGrath up 8.7 with 43% in, and Barr's not even touching 46%.

[houseonaboat]

I actually don't think the votes outstanding in KY-06 are good for McGrath. She may not be able to pull this one off.