My 2020 Presidential and Senate Simulator/Now Cast.

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Yay! Finally got the map to pretty much where I want it:



Does this look about right?

Looks pretty good!

I’d say GA votes left of OH though, and MT-Sen is more likely to flip than KS-Sen.

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Anyone got any ideas how to code MT-SEN in a fair way that will boost Bullock's chances, without making places like AL any bluer? Right now, Daines has  7/10 chance of winning which seems quite high considering the rest of the senate map. The issue I have is that if I weight things that would indicate Bullock is a well liked figure in the state, then the model will automatically not let partisanship win out and gives someone like Jones a 20% chance of winning, just because fundementals in the AL race favor Jones (Jones has good fundraising, he's an incumbents). Daines is technically the incumbent, so he gets a boost over Bullock for that, when in reality, Bullock is prolly a bigger name than Daines in MT. Anyone got any ideas on how to fix this?

BTW, I also tried doing an index of how much states split ballot, and that didn't work out because then people like Swearengin in WV started winning

Maybe AL isn’t as safe as we all assume? Idk

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Incredible work, just one quick question: how is the PVI calculated? Is it just the state’s position  relative to the NPV from 2016? Or are other elections also factored in?