Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

[Hollywood]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer.  

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

[Hollywood]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer.  

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

Not just drone operators.  That's just 5% of it.  Ukraine needs to make all the changes that I talked about.  They need to revamp all the tanks and vehicles that are incoming from NATO. You can put drone operators in every tank and vehicle, but it's not going to make a difference when 'Turtle Tanks' have repeatedly shown that they can resist numerous drones, mines, and artillery hits. 

We've received an unprecedented amount of war coverage from independent sources working on both sides of the conflict.  The footage is incredible. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer. 

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

Not just drone operators.  That's just 5% of it.  Ukraine needs to make all the changes that I talked about.  They need to revamp all the tanks and vehicles that are incoming from NATO. You can put drone operators in every tank and vehicle, but it's not going to make a difference when 'Turtle Tanks' have repeatedly shown that they can resist numerous drones, mines, and artillery hits. 

We've received an unprecedented amount of war coverage from independent sources working on both sides of the conflict.  The footage is incredible. 

There's certainly a lot to think about.
Ukraine will find it hard doing everything it could potentially do anyhow. They're handcuffed by the current status quo, in things like manpower mobilization especially. They need to look after both short-term responding to Russian actions and necessary long-term planning. Quite an unenviable job.

[Storr]

"Been speaking to Ukrainian soldiers just behind the frontline today - a few kilometres north of Orikhiv.

The situation is still very difficult; they still have to ration artillery ammunition; they believe the Russians are pushing as hard as they can before new U.S. aid arrives."

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1783942999484887501

[Hollywood]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer. 

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

Not just drone operators.  That's just 5% of it.  Ukraine needs to make all the changes that I talked about.  They need to revamp all the tanks and vehicles that are incoming from NATO. You can put drone operators in every tank and vehicle, but it's not going to make a difference when 'Turtle Tanks' have repeatedly shown that they can resist numerous drones, mines, and artillery hits. 

We've received an unprecedented amount of war coverage from independent sources working on both sides of the conflict.  The footage is incredible. 

There's certainly a lot to think about.
Ukraine will find it hard doing everything it could potentially do anyhow. They're handcuffed by the current status quo, in things like manpower mobilization especially. They need to look after both short-term responding to Russian actions and necessary long-term planning. Quite an unenviable job.

Well Yeah.  The reality is that nothing Ukraine can be done to significantly alter their current situation. Even if they found enough men, they don't have time to train them, and Russia continues to train more troops with experienced veterans, as well as improve their weaponry.  There weaponry and tactics are improving.  They managed to convert their crappiest tank into the best one on the ground.  The Russians have found a way to successfully occupy areas without losing an appreciable number of men.  I'm becoming increasingly more pessimistic as it relates to the impact Western Aid will have on the situation.  You'd think the Russians would launch their major offensive before it arrives, but apparently it makes way more sense for them to wait for the 'Turtle Tank' upgrades.  If drones, mines, and artillery can't stop them, then there won't be enough advance weapons to help Ukraine stop the offensive.

I'm not being hyperbolic when I say Ukraine is completely and truly F###ed.  The situation is almost hopeless on the Donetsk direction, and nothing can be done to stabilize it if Russia takes Krasnohorivka.  It will help Russia flank everything south of Ocheretyne, and cut-off Ukrainian troops from supporting each other between Umanske, Netaloive and Vuhledar.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer. 

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

Not just drone operators.  That's just 5% of it.  Ukraine needs to make all the changes that I talked about.  They need to revamp all the tanks and vehicles that are incoming from NATO. You can put drone operators in every tank and vehicle, but it's not going to make a difference when 'Turtle Tanks' have repeatedly shown that they can resist numerous drones, mines, and artillery hits. 

We've received an unprecedented amount of war coverage from independent sources working on both sides of the conflict.  The footage is incredible. 

There's certainly a lot to think about.
Ukraine will find it hard doing everything it could potentially do anyhow. They're handcuffed by the current status quo, in things like manpower mobilization especially. They need to look after both short-term responding to Russian actions and necessary long-term planning. Quite an unenviable job.

Well Yeah.  The reality is that nothing Ukraine can be done to significantly alter their current situation. Even if they found enough men, they don't have time to train them, and Russia continues to train more troops with experienced veterans, as well as improve their weaponry.  There weaponry and tactics are improving.  They managed to convert their crappiest tank into the best one on the ground.  The Russians have found a way to successfully occupy areas without losing an appreciable number of men.  I'm becoming increasingly more pessimistic as it relates to the impact Western Aid will have on the situation.  You'd think the Russians would launch their major offensive before it arrives, but apparently it makes way more sense for them to wait for the 'Turtle Tank' upgrades.  If drones, mines, and artillery can't stop them, then there won't be enough advance weapons to help Ukraine stop the offensive.

I'm not being hyperbolic when I say Ukraine is completely and truly F###ed.  The situation is almost hopeless on the Donetsk direction, and nothing can be done to stabilize it if Russia takes Krasnohorivka.  It will help Russia flank everything south of Ocheretyne, and cut-off Ukrainian troops from supporting each other between Umanske, Netaloive and Vuhledar. 

A lot depends on how efficient Ukraine is able to operate and how much they will be able to boost their own capabilities. Russia tends to improve its military capabilities as a war goes on, so if Ukraine can't keep up it's going to be in a really tough spot.
Boatloads of US aid couldn't save South Vietnam...

[Hollywood]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer.  

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

Not just drone operators.  That's just 5% of it.  Ukraine needs to make all the changes that I talked about.  They need to revamp all the tanks and vehicles that are incoming from NATO. You can put drone operators in every tank and vehicle, but it's not going to make a difference when 'Turtle Tanks' have repeatedly shown that they can resist numerous drones, mines, and artillery hits.  

We've received an unprecedented amount of war coverage from independent sources working on both sides of the conflict.  The footage is incredible.  

There's certainly a lot to think about.
Ukraine will find it hard doing everything it could potentially do anyhow. They're handcuffed by the current status quo, in things like manpower mobilization especially. They need to look after both short-term responding to Russian actions and necessary long-term planning. Quite an unenviable job.

Well Yeah.  The reality is that nothing Ukraine can be done to significantly alter their current situation. Even if they found enough men, they don't have time to train them, and Russia continues to train more troops with experienced veterans, as well as improve their weaponry.  There weaponry and tactics are improving.  They managed to convert their crappiest tank into the best one on the ground.  The Russians have found a way to successfully occupy areas without losing an appreciable number of men.  I'm becoming increasingly more pessimistic as it relates to the impact Western Aid will have on the situation.  You'd think the Russians would launch their major offensive before it arrives, but apparently it makes way more sense for them to wait for the 'Turtle Tank' upgrades.  If drones, mines, and artillery can't stop them, then there won't be enough advance weapons to help Ukraine stop the offensive.

I'm not being hyperbolic when I say Ukraine is completely and truly F###ed.  The situation is almost hopeless on the Donetsk direction, and nothing can be done to stabilize it if Russia takes Krasnohorivka.  It will help Russia flank everything south of Ocheretyne, and cut-off Ukrainian troops from supporting each other between Umanske, Netaloive and Vuhledar.  

A lot depends on how efficient Ukraine is able to operate and how much they will be able to boost their own capabilities. Russia tends to improve its military capabilities as a war goes on, so if Ukraine can't keep up it's going to be in a really tough spot.
Boatloads of US aid couldn't save South Vietnam...

'Tough spot' is an extremely positive spin on the situation.  I'm just not seeing it.  There are too many things that would need to go 'right' in order for Ukraine to stabilize the situation, and a bunch more that would need to go 'wrong' for Russia.  

[jaichind]

In response to the USA putting pressure on the PRC to cut trade ties with Russia, the PRC calls for UN investigate the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians are nearly encirclement of a Ukrainian unit West of Berdichy.

[jaichind]

Moscow gets ready for a display of captured NATO weapons

https://twitter.com/cheguwera/status/1783853446199701504

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/26/the-russians-are-rushing-reinforcements-into-their-ocheretyne-breakthrough-the-situation-is-desperate-for-the-ukrainians/?sh=36193f6a7223

"The Russians Are Rushing Reinforcements Into Their Ocheretyne Breakthrough. For The Ukrainians, The Situation Is Desperate."

[Hindsight was 2020]

British intel estimates on Russia’s losses match almost verbatim as Oryx estimates lol good to see Oryx being validated
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estimates-450000-russian-troops-killed-or-wounded/

[jaichind]

Russian sources say that facing encirclement, it seems Ukraine's forces pulled out of Novokalinovo.  They also indicate that some Ukrainians surrendered in the Berdichy pocket.

[Storr]

Obviously, people from such towns wouldn't be able to simply dismiss their loss. But, this remains true:

"Unless something extraordinary happens, neither side will be able to break the positional stalemate in 2024, even if a few more Ukrainian-controlled towns in the east ultimately fall to the relentless Russian assaults."

https://twitter.com/InsiderEng/status/1784228097660801091

[John Dule]

Russian sources say that facing encirclement, it seems Ukraine's forces pulled out of Novokalinovo.  They also indicate that some Ukrainians surrendered in the Berdichy pocket.

Waaaah waaaah no, it doesn't matter that we failed to take Kiev in the most embarrassingly aborted military operation in modern history, instead we captured the border town of Blizhniyhekov (population 49) and its crucial cement factory! This is the turning point in the war!

Reality check: Every single Russian soldier on Ukrainian land will die, and will deserve it.

[lfromnj]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

edit: I think its still possible for this to happen but a lot of predictions or statements from a lot of atlas users are far too optimistic. Just want to see how this play out.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Obviously, people from such towns wouldn't be able to simply dismiss their loss. But, this remains true:

"Unless something extraordinary happens, neither side will be able to break the positional stalemate in 2024, even if a few more Ukrainian-controlled towns in the east ultimately fall to the relentless Russian assaults."

https://twitter.com/InsiderEng/status/1784228097660801091

I’m not going to be delusional and act like everything is fine at the front but important to remember that Woody, Hollywood and jaichind are flexing over Russia gobbling up tiny villages in the Donbas and having less land gains than Ukraine’s co last year took which wasn’t exactly a success. If Ukraine can prevent an real major breakthroughs at the front while mobilizing and aid are still coming in then the long term prospects are bad for Russia

[Storr]

Obviously, people from such towns wouldn't be able to simply dismiss their loss. But, this remains true:

"Unless something extraordinary happens, neither side will be able to break the positional stalemate in 2024, even if a few more Ukrainian-controlled towns in the east ultimately fall to the relentless Russian assaults."

https://twitter.com/InsiderEng/status/1784228097660801091

I’m not going to be delusional and act like everything is fine at the front but important to remember that Woody, Hollywood and jaichind are flexing over Russia gobbling up tiny villages in the Donbas and having less land gains than Ukraine’s co last year took which was exactly a success. If Ukraine can prevent an real major breakthroughs at the front while mobilizing and aid are still coming in then the long term prospects are bad for Russia

I recently read this War on the Rocks article touting a "Prussian Strategy" for Ukraine. It argues along your logic, that Ukraine should work to prevent any major breakthroughs while also preserving force strength. Maybe the EU defense initiative finally picks up steam, maybe Joe Biden wins reelection with a pro-Ukrainian Congress, maybe even Putin dies (unlikely, but still a possibility). Then, whatever the cause is, when conditions turn in Ukraine's favor it is able to take advantage.

"Prussia’s experience in the Seven Years’ War offers hope for Ukraine, showing that, in a war of attrition, it is not necessarily vital to out-kill the other side in order to win. America famously found out in Vietnam that the body count is only one metric of attrition, and the Seven Years’ War shows that a strategy of attrition can take different forms. Whereas the stronger side needs to take the offensive, the weaker side can avoid combat where possible, preserving its limited resources and waiting for the political constellation to change or for the enemy to become economically exhausted.

Crucially, Ukraine does not need political changes of the magnitude that Prussia benefitted from. [The Empress of Russia dying and being replaced by pro-Prussian Peter III.] If its existing allies would just give it more support, that would make a huge difference. On the battlefield, Ukrainians can take heart from the example of Prince Henry of Prussia: a commander who carefully preserved his troops’ lives, helped drag out the war until other factors turned in Prussia’s favor, and then oversaw a deft counter-attack that helped bring the war to an end with Prussia militarily on the front foot. As Ukraine aims to “hold, build and strike,” it can seek to emulate such achievements."

[SuzerainOfSwat]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-19d71475d427875653a2130063a8fb7a

"Ukraine pulls US-provided Abrams tanks from the front lines over Russian drone threats"

But the battlefield has changed substantially since then, notably by the ubiquitous use of Russian surveillance drones and hunter-killer drones. Those weapons have made it more difficult for Ukraine to protect the tanks when they are quickly detected and hunted by Russian drones or rounds.

This has major implications for the US military. Are tanks obsolete in the drone war era?

Naw, this is one of those times that someone has an idea and is like “No one has thought about this before” when in reality some guy at DARPA thought of it 15 years ago. There are plenty of ECM and ECCM devices able to be deployed from static to more mobile options.

[GMantis]

Reality check: Every single Russian soldier on Ukrainian land will die, and will deserve it.

This isn't how you spell wishful thinking...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russian sources say that facing encirclement, it seems Ukraine's forces pulled out of Novokalinovo.  They also indicate that some Ukrainians surrendered in the Berdichy pocket.

Waaaah waaaah no, it doesn't matter that we failed to take Kiev in the most embarrassingly aborted military operation in modern history, instead we captured the border town of Blizhniyhekov (population 49) and its crucial cement factory! This is the turning point in the war!

Reality check: Every single Russian soldier on Ukrainian land will die, and will deserve it.

What reality do you live in if you think every single Russian soldier on the soil in Donbass, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts will die?
War rarely works like that.

[Frodo]

British intel estimates on Russia’s losses match almost verbatim as Oryx estimates lol good to see Oryx being validated
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estimates-450000-russian-troops-killed-or-wounded/

So Russian losses officially exceed their Winter War casualty figures, and are approaching the losses they suffered defending Kiev during Operation Barbarossa. 

[jaichind]

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/18398201

“Putin could be right”
"German military expert Carlo Masala paints a bleak scenario for the outcome of the Ukraine war - with consequences for Europe's democracy, security and prosperity."

What I said in the winter of 2022 continues to apply: Putin is relying on exhaustion, less at the front than in European societies. This strategy seems to be working. We see that resistance to further aid to Ukraine is growing, slowly but surely; how the voices that think it's enough now are getting louder. This is still the minority, but it is growing. Putin expects that neither the USA nor Europe will be able or willing to provide Ukraine with sufficient long-term support - and he could be right.