Why AR, WV, TN, etc. swung Republican

[Smash255]

Because there are no black people in those states. Keep in mind that Obama still did better with white voters in West Virginia than in Virginia. Of course the historic lack of black people is the reason why these states were so Democratic in the first place.

That's not really true. You're right about West Virginia, which is only about 3 percent black, but the other states that swung Republican have their fair share of African Americans - Oklahoma is around 7-8 percent AA, Arkansas is around 15-16 percent AA, Tennessee around 16-17 AA, and Louisiana is the second blackest state in the nation (behind only Mississippi), at least it was according to the 2000 U.S. Census.

It's not so much that there aren't any black voters in these states, because clearly there are. It's been discussed before but the reason Arkansas swung the most Republican probably had to do with the fact that Hillary did not receive the nomination. Simply put, whether you agree or disagree, the Clinton name still holds weight in Arkansas and she did better in Arkansas than she did in New York. The massive swing to the GOP column was more than likely attributed to remorse among self-identified conservative to moderate white Democrats who wanted her as the nominee.

The swing in Louisiana is a little more perplexing. As mentioned, it is the second blackest state in the nation yet has been trending heavily Republican in the last few election cycles. Hurricane Katrina probably displaced several African Americans in and around New Orleans, and maybe they just never returned? Racial polarization probably explains the swing to the GOP. Keep in mind that Louisiana is still in the Deep South where, for better or for worse, there's a white man's party and a black man's party.

Tennessee is interesting as well because this is a state that Bill Clinton won both times but voted against its favorite son Al Gore in 2000. One could argue that the state has been leaning Republican after that election. I think in Tennessee, the swing to the GOP had to do with two factors: 1) a rightward trend in the state as a whole, particularly in the ever increasing Nashville suburbs and 2) the fact that Barack Obama was an "outsider." I dismiss that it was racial in Tennessee but more so geographical. (Harold Ford almost won the open U.S. Senate seat in 2006 to replace Bill Frist) Tennessee is predominantly a rural state, and Obama was not a rural character. Instead, the voters here probably saw him as a big city/urban elitist intellectual who was out of touch with their values, particularly after he made the "bitter" comments in San Francisco.

In West Virginia, it was probably a combination of unfamiliarity with Obama and his environmental views on coal. Obama performed terribly in Appalachia and among the party's white blue-collar/working class base, and West Virginia was no exception.

Oklahoma is a mystery. It has a high number of registered Democrats who seem to like voting Republican. This is the only one of the five states that swung GOP that Bill Clinton did not carry. The only explanation I have found about Oklahoma and why it swung just slightly more GOP in 2008 has to do with the Bible issues. It's situated heavily in the Bible Belt with evangelical Protestantism being the dominant religion, so I'm sure McCain's selection of Sarah Palin probably helped him here; that, and Obama being pro-choice and pro-gay rights probably didn't do him any favors here. Keep in mind that this is the state that gave John Edwards a whopping 10 percent of the vote during Super Tuesday. (Either that 10 percent was just really diehard Edwards fans or they were a bunch of racist and sexist dinosaurs who didn't want to vote for an African American or a woman.) Every article I've found explaining the swing to the GOP in 2008 always mentions the Bible issues. So in Oklahoma in 2008, it was all about Obama being a baby-killing homosexual enabler.

Obama got 14% of the white vote in Louisiana, with the some (though not many) white liberals still in New Orleans, it probably can't get much lower than that.