The Census Bureau released its estimates of the populations in each state for July 1, 2005. A press release and excel file contain the official info.
As in previous years I have used this data to project the House apportionment for 2010. My methodology and projections follow.
The Census provides an apportionment population and base residential population for April 1, 2000. The apportionment population includes residents out of state such as overseas military personnel. An annual rate is calculated from the base population and the new estimate (July 1, 2005) using a period of 5.25 years. The annual rate is applied to the base population for a period of 10 years, and the difference between the 2000 apportionment population and base population is added. This results in a projected apportionment population for each state.
The House seats are apportioned on the priority method used for past decennial reapportionments. Each state is assigned one seat. An average number of residents per seat is calulated each state with the current seat assignment and for an assignment of one additional seat. The priority is calculated for each state by taking the geometric mean of those two averages. The state with the highest priority is given the next seat, and its next priority is calculated. The process continues until 435 seats are assigned.
The 2010 projections would result in these changes:
AZ +2
CA +1
FL +3
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MN -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1
The following states were the last to get seats: 431 AL-7, 432 PA-18, 433 CA-54, 434 AZ-10, 435 FL-28.
These states would be next in line to get seats: 436 MN-8, 437 MI-15, 438 NY-36, 439 IL-19, 440 LA-7.
Compared to the 2004 estimates this is one additional seat for AZ and FL, and one less for MI and MN.
Note that this does not include the affects of relocations due to Katrina which occurred after the date of the estimates. To test the effects I moved 300K from LA in 2010 and assigned 150K to TX, 50K to GA and 20K to each of AR, CA, NC, SC, and TN. That amount of movement had no effect on the reapportionment, though MO would be at priority 440 instead of LA.
Nice muon. Thanks. Just FYI, here are some estimates of the numbers of Katrina evacuees who still remain in various states (most come from LA):
TX 177000
MS 73000
GA 40000
FL 23000
AL 22000
... and about 20 other states have between 1 and 5000.
Source: American Red Cross.
Hard to say how many of these will remain till the next decennial census, though.
