India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Were even the most wildly optimistic anti-BJP types saying it could be "another 2004", though?

[randomusername]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

I do think the BJP will lose some seats overall as keep in mind in 2019 the NDA swept Rajasthan, won 26/28 in Karnataka, won 28/29 in MP, won 39/40 in Bihar so I do think its very possible you could see losses here which cant be made up in West Bengal.

Now the question whether the BJP makes gains or not comes down to whether they can make gains in UP or not as the NDA did lose 9 seats of their 2014 totals there(down from 73 to 64) so if they can get back into the 70s in UP then I think its likely for them to make gains.

At this time though I think we will see the NDA finish somewhere in the low 340s as the total which is higher than 2014 but less than 2019