NM-01 Special Election Prediction and Margin

[Matty]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

[Oryxslayer]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

GOP can't compete in Urban districts, no matter their history, ditto Dems in White rural ones. News at 11.

Also zero outside money from the big national spenders on either side of the isle, and with Dems dominating the larger local ones, the GOP lacked the funds to make it closer. Somewhat similar story to Dems in TX-06 really.

[Matty]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

GOP can't compete in Urban districts, no matter their history, ditto Dems in White rural ones. News at 11.

I recall a may 2017 white rural district in kansas that was remarkably close.

[Oryxslayer]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

GOP can't compete in Urban districts, no matter their history, ditto Dems in White rural ones. News at 11.

I recall a may 2017 white rural district in kansas that was remarkably close.

I didn't realize that Wichita was rural

[DINGO Joe]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

GOP can't compete in Urban districts, no matter their history, ditto Dems in White rural ones. News at 11.

I recall a may 2017 white rural district in kansas that was remarkably close.

Because the D won Wichita (not rural)

[Minnesota Mike]

any particular reason the gop seemed to have kind of fell flat here?

Nobody was expecting a flip, but it could have been closer to maybe 9-12 pts than what it likely will end up being.

was the gop candidate bad?

No, the Party is that bad.

[The Mikado]

I picked 20-25.

96% in and she's up 24.8%. Looks like I'm JUST BARELY right...because I almost underestimated her.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I picked 20-25.

96% in and she's up 24.8%. Looks like I'm JUST BARELY right...because I almost underestimated her.

Where's the incoming vote from? And does NM count Election day or mail-in first.

[ElectionsGuy]

Stansbury won by 24.6%, a 2% overperformance of Biden, and an 8% overperformance of Haaland in 2020.

[Xing]

Stansbury: Weak Candidate -> God-tier incumbent
Moores: Strong Candidate -> Weak Unelectable Joker

[Blair]

I don't usually dunk on people for posting predictions but it would be good for people who regularly get things wrong in the exact same way to at least admit that they got it wrong!

[CookieDamage]

Atlas wrong as usual

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Atlas wrong as usual

All 46/73 members of Atlas

[Minnesota Mike]

Lots of votes in this poll cast after the polls closed in NM. IIRC there were only 3 votes cast for 20+.

[wbrocks67]

Some of these predictions are... interesting. Dems lead nearly +30 in the early vote. Republicans would have to make up a LOT of ground on Election Day for the outcome to even be <15

For once,  I was actually right. Not sure why people in here were predicting anything less than 15, let alone 10, for Stansbury when the early vote was literally Dem +28.

[Xing]

Some of these predictions are... interesting. Dems lead nearly +30 in the early vote. Republicans would have to make up a LOT of ground on Election Day for the outcome to even be <15

For once,  I was actually right. Not sure why people in here were predicting anything less than 15, let alone 10, for Stansbury when the early vote was literally Dem +28.

2016/2020 polling PTSD, also TX-06 PTSD.

[wbrocks67]

Some of these predictions are... interesting. Dems lead nearly +30 in the early vote. Republicans would have to make up a LOT of ground on Election Day for the outcome to even be <15

For once,  I was actually right. Not sure why people in here were predicting anything less than 15, let alone 10, for Stansbury when the early vote was literally Dem +28.

2016/2020 polling PTSD, also TX-06 PTSD.

Not even the polling though - we had concrete early vote data and a history of NM-01 being a very mail-in type of district (both 2020 and 2021 had <30% on election day). Sometimes the data can tell you a lot if you don't ignore it.

I could see people guessing like Stansburry +17 or something, but anyone doing less than even Stansbury +15 were not paying attention.