Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Precinct 607 in NW downtown Wichita so far:

2016: Clinton 57%, Trump 31%

Early return today in #KS04: Thompson 85%, Estes 15%

[Devout Centrist]

Butler showing up on the SOS website, Thompson still at 61%

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

Rural voters are far more elastic than their suburban counterparts?

literally?

[MAINEiac4434]

Butler finally coming in...54-43 Estes.

[Chief Justice Keef]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

Races like these matter just as much.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Precinct 607 in NW downtown Wichita so far:

2016: Clinton 57%, Trump 31%

Early return today in #KS04: Thompson 85%, Estes 15%

Good lord that's brutal.

[Adam Griffin]

Are Kansas primaries open or closed? The reason I'm asking is that if they are closed, that could explain why Thompson did so good with registered R's in the early vote.

They're closed, but places like Sedgwick aren't necessarily going to have such lopsided numbers of Democrats registered as Republicans because of the dominance. Yes, they do exist I'm sure, but it wouldn't be like it is in super-majority GOP counties where 30-40% of your Dems are voting in the GOP primaries. The increase in the share of Dems registered as Reps or vice-versa exponentially increases with the percentage of the vote of the majority party.

[Holmes]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

Candidate quality matters and you can't win 'em all.

[Barnes]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

Cobb County Republicans are a bunch of pretentious losers. But we knew that already.

[Devout Centrist]

Edwards going 74-24 for Estes, with 9/15 in.

[VPH]

Edwards going 74-24 for Estes, with 9/15 in.

Weaker than Paul Davis who got 30% there, but FAR ahead of Hillary.

[Crumpets]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

RuralNon-Southern voters are far more elastic than their suburban Southern counterparts?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 12 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   14,704   60%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   351   1%   
    
R-Ron Estes   9,381   38%   
    
Back to Top

[InheritTheWind]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

Rural voters are far more elastic than their suburban counterparts?

literally?

Yeah, KS-04 is populated entirely by direct descendants of Gumby.

[wjx987]

Edwards County reporting, Thompson now at 60%

[Chief Justice Keef]

If Thompson wins here, which is beginning to look more likely with each passing minute, it'll also show the strength of grassroots like Our Revolution. The DCCC didn't enter into this race until the twilight hour.

[Adam Griffin]

Edwards going 74-24 for Estes, with 9/15 in.

79-16 Trump

[Xing]

Edwards was 79-16 Trump, but Thompson needs a bigger swing than that in other counties to win this.

[Roronoa D. Law]

What if Ds end up winning KS-04 and MT-AL but lose GA-06 what message would that send to the DCCC?

The usual blacks did not turnout or voter suppression. I-85 conspiracy theories.

[The Other Castro]

Edwards going 74-24 for Estes, with 9/15 in.

79-16 Trump

And the county is <1% of the district.

[MAINEiac4434]

With Edwards County coming in, Thompson's percentage is down by 0.8%.

[Adam Griffin]

Edwards was 79-16 Trump, but Thompson needs a bigger swing than that in other counties to win this.

If he can maintain huge swings in Sedgwick, Butler and Sumner, he's likely going to be OK. Those three counties were 85% of the 2016 vote.

[Holmes]

If Thompson wins here, which is beginning to look more likely with each passing minute, it'll also show the strength of grassroots like Our Revolution. The DCCC didn't enter into this race until the twilight hour.

Might not be a bad strategy in some places. Let the grassroots lay the strategy and the groundwork, and the DCCC can pitch in at the end to help seal the deal.

[The Other Castro]

Lol

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk  1h1 hour ago
In Mulvane, one of those crucial small towns near Wichita for Estes. Trump won 65-25% in November. Estes is BEHIND 64-36% in early returns.

[MAINEiac4434]

Lol

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk  1h1 hour ago
In Mulvane, one of those crucial small towns near Wichita for Estes. Trump won 65-25% in November. Estes is BEHIND 64-36% in early returns.

Oh. My. God.