Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People are already doing election day stuff on the other thread - turnout reports and the like. This thread will be used for results on the rest of these nights - next one is SC Primary on 5/2 - but unless people really want to switch over here when polls close, I see no reason to veer off from the other thread.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: OSSOFF VS. HANDEL RUNOFF

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking forward to an exciting runoff! The total R to Total D vote margin was very silm: 51.03% R to 48.89% D. This should be one of the closest runoffs in history. But before it happens, we have other things to watch. The next election is the SC-5 primary on May 2nd.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

Also, SC-05 is a district that significantly swung to Trump - Obama got nearly 45% of the vote both times, but Hillary got just 38%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

For the Party of Trump: Connolly is the former chair of the SC Party of Trump, Few is the founder of an Anti-Common-Core Group, Wampler is an Attorney, Pope is in his seventh year as a state representative, Craig is a missionary who unsucccessfully attempted to primary Mulvaney from the left in 2016, Norman is a former state representative, and Mullikin is on the Board of Directors for the SC chapter of the US Army Special Forces Foundation and also works as an Attorney.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today is the South Carolina 5 primary​! It's time to find out who will be facing off for Mick Mulvaney's old seat in June! Polls close in under two hours. Results by county will be here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/SC_US_House_0502.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT results map: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/south-carolina-house-special-election-primary

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early vote starting to drift in:

 Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ralph Norman
95   42.6%   
Tommy Pope
77   34.5   
Chad Connelly
35   15.7   
Sheri Few
10   4.5   
Tom Mullikin
4   1.8   
Kris Wampler
2   0.9   
Ray Craig
0   0.0

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
85   55.2%   
Les Murphy
58   37.7   
Alexis Frank
11   7.1   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1% of the vote is in.

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
1,063   44.1%   
Ralph Norman
862   35.8   
Tom Mullikin
208   8.6   
Chad Connelly
207   8.6   
Sheri Few
57   2.4   
Kris Wampler
9   0.4   
Ray Craig
3   0.1

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
866   70.4%   
Alexis Frank
206   16.7   
Les Murphy
158   12.8   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the democratic primary for Parnell!

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
3,162   73.8%   
Alexis Frank
813   19.0   
Les Murphy
310   7.2   
17% reporting (61 of 358 precincts)

Republican Primary so far:

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
2,576   37.8%   
Ralph Norman
1,807   26.5   
Tom Mullikin
1,277   18.8   
Chad Connelly
858   12.6   
Sheri Few
254   3.7   
Kris Wampler
21   0.3   
Ray Craig
16   0.2   
17% reporting (61 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
3,221   35.2%   
Ralph Norman
2,443   26.7   
Tom Mullikin
1,844   20.1   
Chad Connelly
1,242   13.6   
Sheri Few
354   3.9   
Kris Wampler
28   0.3   
Ray Craig
23   0.3   
25% reporting (91 of 358 precincts)


Remember that there is a runoff if no one reaches 50%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
4,621   32.2%   
Ralph Norman
3,930   27.4   
Tom Mullikin
3,017   21.0   
Chad Connelly
2,002   14.0   
Sheri Few
676   4.7   
Kris Wampler
56   0.4   
Ray Craig
33   0.2   
41% reporting (145 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the republican primary - it'll be a runoff between Pope and Norman!

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
5,447   31.1%   
Ralph Norman
4,596   26.3   
Tom Mullikin
3,317   19.0   
Chad Connelly
3,283   18.8   
Sheri Few
744   4.3   
Kris Wampler
69   0.4   
Ray Craig
44   0.3   
50% reporting (179 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not impossible for Norman to overtake Pope for first, but regardless, it's a runoff as no one is getting to 50%.

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
7,102   30.8%   
Ralph Norman
6,443   27.9   
Tom Mullikin
4,289   18.6   
Chad Connelly
4,021   17.4   
Sheri Few
1,083   4.7   
Kris Wampler
92   0.4   
Ray Craig
56   0.2   
68% reporting (243 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's dogfight to see who wins the initial R round:

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
7,666   30.9%   
Ralph Norman
7,429   29.9   
Tom Mullikin
4,381   17.7   
Chad Connelly
4,059   16.4   
Sheri Few
1,115   4.5   
Kris Wampler
98   0.4   
Ray Craig
59   0.2   
70% reporting (249 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some York + Kershaw remain

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
8,660   31.1%   
Ralph Norman
8,397   30.1   
Tom Mullikin
4,852   17.4   
Chad Connelly
4,454   16.0   
Sheri Few
1,310   4.7   
Kris Wampler
127   0.5   
Ray Craig
61   0.2   
79% reporting (282 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Norman now in first!

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ralph Norman
9,395   31.5%   
Tommy Pope
9,087   30.4   
Tom Mullikin
5,106   17.1   
Chad Connelly
4,680   15.7   
Sheri Few
1,367   4.6   
Kris Wampler
151   0.5   
Ray Craig
64   0.2   
82% reporting (293 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all of York in, Pope barely goes back into first. All that is left now is Kershaw.

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
11,409   32.6%   
Ralph Norman
11,373   32.5   
Tom Mullikin
5,498   15.7   
Chad Connelly
4,945   14.1   
Sheri Few
1,536   4.4   
Kris Wampler
186   0.5   
Ray Craig
74   0.2   
91% reporting (324 of 358 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
11,866   30.5%   
Ralph Norman
11,754   30.2   
Tom Mullikin
7,578   19.5   
Chad Connelly
5,505   14.2   
Sheri Few
1,908   4.9   
Kris Wampler
202   0.5   
Ray Craig
90   0.2   
100% reporting (358 of 358 precincts)

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
13,234   71.3%   
Alexis Frank
3,992   21.5   
Les Murphy
1,347   7.3   
100% reporting (358 of 358 precincts)


The runoff between Pope and Norman will be on the 16th. Parnell advances outright to the June GE.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's not determinate, but I don't think it's great sign for the Democrats that the total Republican vote (68%) was so much greater than the total Democratic vote (32%).

Eh? +36 is encouraging?

Erm, maybe you should read my sentence again.  I said it isn't a great sign.

Woops, that went over my head. Isn't that district gerrymandered anyways?

Yes, but not as bad as some seats. Yeah, it went for Trump 57-39, but it was much closer in '12 - Romney 55-44.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The way Mullikin's support just drops off after the three counties he carried big is interesting, to say the least.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Considering Parnell's margin, it didn't seem like the Dem primary was all that contested, meanwhile the GOP primary is very very contested.

Yeah, apparently SC dems love Goldman Sachs and hate blaxicans.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OP updated for next week's event.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Happy runoff day everyone!!! Polls close in just under 4 hours!

Results by county: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/SC_Page_0516.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS