Ottawa South provincial by-election

[Hatman 🍁]

Because my riding deserves its own thread!

Today, former Premier Dalton McGuinty has resigned his seat.

The Liberals have already planned a nomination meeting on June 20 (planned on May 31... sounds a bit sneaky? )

They probably have a candidate already lined up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently the Tories have a candidate already, Matt Young: "Young is the son-in-law of longtime Tory Larry Malloy, who used to work for Claude Bennett, considered in the day to be the most powerful Tory in the region."

As for the Liberals: "The Liberals are believed to be poised to annoint the popular John Fraser, McGuinty’s executive assistant."

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens nominated James Mihaychuk back in October.

Looks like as usual, it is the NDP to nominate last in this riding

[DL]

As for the Liberals: "The Liberals are believed to be poised to annoint the popular John Fraser, McGuinty’s executive assistant."

"Popular" according to who??"

[lilTommy]

Hatman, since this is your riding; any news on potential NDP candidates?

a) can the Tories win here if the NDP vote is strong enough?
b) can the OLP win without a McGuinty running? (87 Dalton McGuinty Sr was the MPP, then Dalton Jr won in 96)... i was just going to say "popular" when are EAs ever popularly known

This is probably, of the three by-elections, will be the lowest on the totem for the NDP. Windsor-Tecumseh (almost a sure lock), London West (solid Candidate, strong regional numbers) and Ottawa South (in that order)

[Hatman 🍁]

As for the Liberals: "The Liberals are believed to be poised to annoint the popular John Fraser, McGuinty’s executive assistant."

"Popular" according to who??"

Grabbed that quote from the Ottawa Sun. Read at your own peril. Problem with such a rush nomination is that you don't get anyone good with community connections. You get McGuinty's EA for pete's sake. That may hurt the Liberals a lot.

Hatman, since this is your riding; any news on potential NDP candidates?

a) can the Tories win here if the NDP vote is strong enough?
b) can the OLP win without a McGuinty running? (87 Dalton McGuinty Sr was the MPP, then Dalton Jr won in 96)... i was just going to say "popular" when are EAs ever popularly known

This is probably, of the three by-elections, will be the lowest on the totem for the NDP. Windsor-Tecumseh (almost a sure lock), London West (solid Candidate, strong regional numbers) and Ottawa South (in that order)

It's been a long time since I was active on the riding association (almost 2 years), but when I last spoke with them, they looked like they wanted their last candidate (Wali Farah) to run again. He was a very good candidate in my opinion, he has lots of connections in the riding. Unfortunately, he doesn't live in the riding any more (and didn't when he ran last time).

But you're right, the NDP won't be paying attention. All this time I was thinking "when we get a by-election here, the NDP will finally pay attention to us!" but unfortunately we will be coupled with 2 higher priority ridings. At least maybe we'll get some Ottawa Centre volunteers.

[toaster]

I live next door in Ottawa Centre, and am frequently in the riding.  Unfortunate it is this riding, as both  Ottawa Centre and Ottawa West - Nepean have nominated ONDP candidates already (well almost, Cullen will be officially nominated at the end of June).  I'm surprised the NDP hasn't done better in this riding, considering the low-income areas nearest to downtown.  Anyway, possible higher profile NDP names in the Ottawa region do not come from Ottawa South (Clive Doucet, Alex Munter) and would know better than to run here.  I could see one of the usual names (Ric Dagenais, Trevor Hache, Marlene Rivier) running.

[Hatman 🍁]

I live next door in Ottawa Centre, and am frequently in the riding.  Unfortunate it is this riding, as both  Ottawa Centre and Ottawa West - Nepean have nominated ONDP candidates already (well almost, Cullen will be officially nominated at the end of June).  I'm surprised the NDP hasn't done better in this riding, considering the low-income areas nearest to downtown.  Anyway, possible higher profile NDP names in the Ottawa region do not come from Ottawa South (Clive Doucet, Alex Munter) and would know better than to run here.  I could see one of the usual names (Ric Dagenais, Trevor Hache, Marlene Rivier) running.

I used to live in Ottawa Centre (from 2008 to 2013). I moved back to Ottawa South in April.

In theory, the demographics in Ottawa South aren't that bad for the NDP, but they really have never tried that hard. Sure, there was Monia Mazigh in 2004, but she wasn't trusted by the middle class white voters, and she only got 13%.

Dagenais and Hache have their base in Ottawa-Vanier and Rivier in Ottawa West-Nepean. No way they leave their homelands and run in Ottawa South.
 

[lilTommy]

I live next door in Ottawa Centre, and am frequently in the riding.  Unfortunate it is this riding, as both  Ottawa Centre and Ottawa West - Nepean have nominated ONDP candidates already (well almost, Cullen will be officially nominated at the end of June).  I'm surprised the NDP hasn't done better in this riding, considering the low-income areas nearest to downtown.  Anyway, possible higher profile NDP names in the Ottawa region do not come from Ottawa South (Clive Doucet, Alex Munter) and would know better than to run here.  I could see one of the usual names (Ric Dagenais, Trevor Hache, Marlene Rivier) running.

I used to live in Ottawa Centre (from 2008 to 2013). I moved back to Ottawa South in April.

In theory, the demographics in Ottawa South aren't that bad for the NDP, but they really have never tried that hard. Sure, there was Monia Mazigh in 2004, but she wasn't trusted by the middle class white voters, and she only got 13%.

Dagenais and Hache have their base in Ottawa-Vanier and Rivier in Ottawa West-Nepean. No way they leave their homelands and run in Ottawa South.
 

...Also, i think Hache left the NDP, over the transit funding issue i believe? I guess he doesn't feel that Corporations and those who use AND benefit directly from transit infrastructure should help pay for it?

[Smid]

I would prefer a Hatman candidacy.

[RogueBeaver]

I would prefer a Hatman candidacy.

Seconded.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been asked in the past, to be honest. But I like to think the NDP would take their candidacy nominations more seriously now.

[DC Al Fine]

Looking at Pundit's Guide, it looks like the NDP haven't spent any money in Ottawa South. Is it any different provincially?

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking at Pundit's Guide, it looks like the NDP haven't spent any money in Ottawa South. Is it any different provincially?

Probably worse. One problem was that until recently, the riding association was run by a very incompetent husband and wife team who liked to spend the riding's money and put us into huge debt. When saner forces took over, the left for the Liberals in a huff. They're the Liberal Party's problem now. Wouldn't be surprised if the husband ran for the Liberal nomination.

[DC Al Fine]

Looking at Pundit's Guide, it looks like the NDP haven't spent any money in Ottawa South. Is it any different provincially?

Probably worse. One problem was that until recently, the riding association was run by a very incompetent husband and wife team who liked to spend the riding's money and put us into huge debt. When saner forces took over, the left for the Liberals in a huff. They're the Liberal Party's problem now. Wouldn't be surprised if the husband ran for the Liberal nomination.

We had someone like that in a neighboring riding in NS. People live in a safe NDP seat that raises maybe $800 in an election campaign and they decide that they need to "put up a good fight" and spend like it's a battleground

[Smid]

Looking at Pundit's Guide, it looks like the NDP haven't spent any money in Ottawa South. Is it any different provincially?

Probably worse. One problem was that until recently, the riding association was run by a very incompetent husband and wife team who liked to spend the riding's money and put us into huge debt. When saner forces took over, the left for the Liberals in a huff. They're the Liberal Party's problem now. Wouldn't be surprised if the husband ran for the Liberal nomination.

We had someone like that in a neighboring riding in NS. People live in a safe NDP seat that raises maybe $800 in an election campaign and they decide that they need to "put up a good fight" and spend like it's a battleground

"They'll vote for us this time (with a 15% swing) because the demographics are changing, they're definitely changing. And plus, we've never put up a serious candidate before"

[adma]

Well, in 2007, they probably had the most bizarrely-named NDP candidate ever: Edelweiss D'Andrea...

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, in 2007, they probably had the most bizarrely-named NDP candidate ever: Edelweiss D'Andrea...

I remember that campaign. I'm trying to forget it though. She got some rather bad press because she was a terrible candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

My sources point to a July 4 nomination for the NDP. No word on the candidate(s), but they think it will be contested. Looks like I will be involved in the campaign too. Will keep you all posted.

[adma]

What are the chances of a McGuinty being nominated for the Liberals?  (As in: offspring, brothers, brothers' offspring, etc)

[DC Al Fine]

What are the chances of a McGuinty being nominated for the Liberals?  (As in: offspring, brothers, brothers' offspring, etc)

They're supposedly nominating McGuinty's EA, so I'd say low.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah...

Finally the dynasty is ending. I do know one McGuinty (Dalton's son, Liam) whom I had a class with in university told me that he's not interested in entering politics. But, that's just one of many McGuinty children.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah...

Finally the dynasty is ending. I do know one McGuinty (Dalton's son, Liam) whom I had a class with in university told me that he's not interested in entering politics. But, that's just one of many McGuinty children.

Well, Dalton was the first to marry, in 1980. The oldest one of Dalton or David's kids could be is like 32-33. In another 10 years they'll have a few more kids old enough to run for office.

[Hatman 🍁]

McGunty's children:

(from an older version of Terri McGuinty's now non-existent Wikipedia page):

"(They) have one daughter (Carleen, b. 1981) and three sons (Dalton James, b. 1983; Liam, b. 1984; and Connor, b. 1986)."

[adma]

That's the thing: there's plenty of Dalton McGuinty Sr. offspring and grand-offspring to go around (ah, that Roman Catholicism)