Chile Constitutional Referendum, October 25th 2020

[kaoras]

Well, a lot has happened in the last few months.

The constituent convention would be elected with the same electoral system as the Chamber of Deputies. (Open list PR which is a spectacular mess). It would also have 155 members elected in the same existing constituencies. In the case of a mixed convention, it would have 172 members, 86 current parliamentarians and 86 newly elected members in the same existing constituencies but each one electing fewer representatives (generally half of the normal)

The impeachment of Piñera failed to the shock of no one. It was closer than I was expecting though.

There has been a lot of debate about giving the constituent convention reserved seats for Indigenous people (they are near 10% of the population), 50/50 parity between men and women and to allow independent lists to run. The law currently approved doesn't have any of this because of strong resistance from UDI. The opposition, however, pushed for this as an add-on law and got RN and EVOPOLI on board (they don't have the votes to approve it themselves), passing it in the lower chamber. This led to a huge s**storm among the right, with UDI freezing its participation in Chile Vamos and claiming they are "the only right-wing party left" and that they are defending the people who voted for Piñera (Nevermind that all of these things have overwhelming support according to polls, with even the right showing a majority in favor). All these things are still up in the air.

The leftist Broad Front has also had a lot of crisis, with many parties leaving the coalition over the signing of the Constitutional Accord, including the Ecologist (PEV), Humanist (PH) and Equality (PI) parties, which had 4 deputies between them.

The Radical Party (PR) also had a crisis with 3 of its 8 deputies leaving because the party attempted to impose disciplinary measures on them for voting against Piñera impeachment. They have joined the DC caucus.

The ex-New Majority parties have been MIA but they recently launched two separates campaigns for the Yes option in the plebiscite. One by PR-PS-PPD (they technically have had a new coalition called Convergencia Progresista for a while, but no one remembers that, not even themselves a lot of the time) and another one by the Christian Democrats (DC) led by 81 years old Carmen Frei. The DC claims that they want nothing to do with the Communist Pary (which also supports a Yes vote) but Carmen Frei said that she will speak with the Communist leader so...

The No option is being defended by the Republican Party of the Jose Antonio Kast (JAK, being a Pinochetist, is, in the end, the ultimate defender of the pinochetist status quo, so its populist appeal will be always limited, fortunately) and is almost sure that the UDI will also defend that. RN seems deeply divided.

The Piñera government remains languishing in its infinite incompetence, with approvals stuck on 10%. Piñera has been engaged in a series of pathetic attempts trying to show that the protests were some kind of foreign intervention (usually being rebated by the Public Ministry). The culmination of this was the release of a "Big Data"-""""intelligence"""" report that among other things, claimed that K-POP was a major factor in the protests (I WISH I WAS KIDDING, but you can look it up). This was met which such ridicule that the government now claims it doesn't have anything to do with it, it didn't order it, nor did they pay for it (despite announcing it which much fanfare...).

There also been some controversy about the intendente (governor) of the Metropolitan Region and its attempts to maintain the public order, but I honestly can't be bothered to explain it. The opposition will try to impeach him, and will probably fail because the recent burning of the Police's Institutional Church will scare them (Yeah, remember my "Precarious instability" prediction? We are exactly in the middle of that, waiting for March...)

[kaoras]

So, the right has reached an agreement among themselves on the issues of parity between women and men, reserved seats for indigenous peoples and independents lists.

-On parity between women and men: There will be closed list per districts and they will have to be zipper lists. I'm personally ok with this but the thing is that Chileans have NEVER, in any kind of elections, voted for closed lists (i.e, directly for a political party), it was always for a candidate. People usually say that they vote according to the person, independent of a political party (that is just kinda true since most people still vote according to ideology). Given that political parties are the one institution that polls worse than Piñera I don't think many people are going to like this.

-On reserved seats for Indigenous peoples: There will be a special roll for indigenous voters (those recognized by the National Indigenous Corporation) that voters can opt-in (Kinda New Zealand I think?) If they do so, they will only be able to vote for the indigenous seats. The number of seats will be proportional between the indigenous roll and national roll and the seats will be taken from 155 or 172 seats of the convention, so the electoral districts' magnitudes will have to be adjusted by the electoral service. The vote will be a nationwide district with ¿Open List PR I think? (the redaction isn't very clear).

I don't think this will fly, mainly because it doesn't assure the representation of all indigenous peoples. With a nationwide district, there may be only Mapuche representatives elected. Also, I can assure you, registering at the CONADI isn't something that most people that qualify do. Well, in fact, there lies a very complicated debate about who counts as indigenous. Those who still live in traditional communities? (who ARE registered at the CONADI in the majority of cases but are a small fraction)  Those who have indigenous last names (CONADI actual criteria)? All people who identifies as belonging to them as in the census (and where the 10% figure comes from)?.

-On Independent's list: They will support the project approved by the Opposition and RN-EVOPOLI.

These days the University selection test (PSU) is being held and there has been a lot of protests that had caused the cancelation of the PSU in many precincts, affecting 14% of students. Protesters claim that the test is unfair (there's actually a lot of scientific evidence that points that the PSU isn't very good and not very predictive at measuring actual performance in the university) but I can't say that I agree with disrupting the process. Anyway, just another example of the StAbIlTy provided by this government (Piñera last week said that the worst of the crisis had already passed....)

[kaoras]

More news:

UDI has unfrozen its participation in Chile Vamos and will support "reject" in the plebiscite. They even claim that there aren't conditions to hold a plebiscite. (Which says wonders about the ability of the government to maintain public order)

8 of 9 of RN's senators and 21 of its 36 deputies will also support "reject" in the plebiscite. They claim that a constituent process will only distract Congress from giving solutions and that they can do changes immediately. This is a particularly stupid argument considering that if Approve wins, they support a mixed convention over a Constituent Assembly which will only distract Congress even more. Also, Congress really have not solved any structural issue since the start of the unrest. The official party line is freedom of action.

This is all very orchestrated. You see, the PSU was in the end successfully boycotted with the History test being canceled, in a spectacular failure of the government's contingency plans. The minister of education, after doing absolutely nothing the whole week, finally appeared doing the only thing this government knows : add more logs to the fire, seeking maximum repression for students leader who called the boycott with the State Interior Security Law and denying access to university to anyone who participated. The right hopes that the backslash over this will lead to a fall in support to for a new constitution (and they WILL probably make it appear that way through the CADEM poll, whose director openly participates in government's strategic meetings)

Finally, the government claimed that the bullets used by the police at repriming the protest are made of rubber in a report to the ONU. This, despite that a study done by the Universidad de Chile showed that bullets are only 20% rubber, with the rest being lead, barium and silicon, which led to the police stop using them. This evil, murderous government should have resigned long ago if it had a scrap of dignity, but is the Chilean right that we are talking about after all.

[kaoras]

Updates:

Of the ruling coalition, Chile Vamos, UDI is for Reject in the upcoming plebiscite, RN is split with freedom of action but with a "majority for Reject". EVOPOLI and PRI (kinda amazed that it still exists) support Approve. Kast and his Republican Party obviously are for Reject (and could be fined for campaigning outside the official period).

Literally everyone else is for Approve, including all former New Majority, former Broad Front, what is left of the Broad Front, etc. They also have almost no coordination whatsoever between them, standard for the Chilean left.

Polls have been fairly static with 70%+ for Approve and 20% for Reject, but usually higher % for Approve among people who actually plan to vote. The Constitutional Convention holds a much narrower lead over the Mixed Convention (50-40 or 50-30). Speaking of that, there is still no accord for gender parity in the eventual Convention, Congress said that they will figure it out in March.

The impeachment of the Intendente of the Metropolitan Region failed in the Senate due to several absences of the opposition. This is hardly shocking given the level of disarray on the left.

The government managed to approve several "anti-vandalism" and "anti-looting" laws with Christian Democratic support. This obviously generated outrage, being seen as further repression of protests and questioning the fact they approved that and not any structural reform that addresses the root of the protests. There has been some "advance" on the pension system reform. First the opposition reached an agreement (6% extra employee's contribution going to a common fund), which was almost immediately broken by the DC who reached an agreement with the government (who propose a 3% for a common fund and 3% to individual accounts). But then the Christian Democrat leader in the Senate said that the deal wasn't a thing in the Senate so...

Speaking of repression, in the last days, there has been a reignition of violence (not to previous levels though) related to police brutality. First, a Carabineros (police) truck ran over a football fan, didn't stop to help him and then the guanaco (a vehicle that throws high-pressure water to disperse protests) attacked the people who tried to help him. The fan died and that led to the most violent day of incidents since November. Then, a video was divulged that showed a brutal beating of a single protester by 7 Carabineros who then ran away. This has led to attacks on police stations. Carabineros has been violating Human Rights since the beginning of the protests, as shown by several Human Rights reports and yet the Government has not done anything to stop this and they refuse to fire the leader of the Police.

According to CEP, 88% think that Carabineros violated human rights during the protests (64% frequently), and according to Criteria, 59% think they hurt people intentionally, 60% that they incite violence, and 57% think that they infiltrate protest to generate riots.

[kaoras]

Wow, Christian Democrats are f**king useless scum. WTF

In many ways, Christian Democrats would fit better in a center-right coalition with the sane parts of RN and Evopoli. But its dirigent cadre has spent all his life fighting with the Right and joining them is seen by most as something unfathomable. Even people who were in the right-wing of the party and left it (Progresismo con Progreso), have not actually been able to do the final step and join the right, despite frequently defending Piñera and company. Besides, what is left of its voting base is mostly party loyalists who still gloat about Frei Montalva government and despise the right with all their soul, they lost most of its moderate voters long ago.

What the Christian Democrats actually want is going back to the good old days of the Concertación and technocratic centrism, when they were by far the dominant party of the coalition and its partners weren't trying to do some scary structural reforms. The DC has been in constant decline for the last 30 years, it is a matter of time for them to become irrelevant, and I can't wait.

[kaoras]

Parties and Joint Electoral Committees registered at the Electoral Service to run ads in the obligatory television ad campaign. This offers some light into the liquid and messy state of parties' alliances (especially on the left)

7 parties will run ads by themselves. Those are UDI, Kast's Republican Party (Both for Reject), RN (70% of its time will go to Reject, 30% to Approve), EVOPOLI, DC (Both Approve), Humanist Party and Ecologist Party (Both former members of the Broad Front, both for Approve)

There are three Joint Committees: Progressive Convergence (Socialists, PPD and Radicals); Apruebo Chile Digno ("Approve Dignified Chile", Communists, Regionalist, Ominami's PRO and former Broad Front Member Equality Party); and Que Chile Decida ("Let Chile Decide", Most of what is left of the Broad Front: RD, Poder Ciudadano, Liberal Party). All of them are for approving.

Some Comments: The Right didn't put forward any Joint Committee given the divergences between the ruling coalition. However, UDI has expressed its wish to cooperate with Kast and the Republican Party, while heavily criticizing the recent RN's president (who is for Approve) early talks with the Ex-Concertación parties (DC, PS, PPD, PR) to reach some accords on the social agenda. This might be a fault line in the future.

On the Left, the parties that left the Broad Front have not regrouped, each one following different paths. Equality's presence on the Communist's Committee is significant because it probably means it will join the Communist coalition, "Unidad por el Cambio". Besides, Progressive Convergence still tries to be a thing, maybe now they will give it a logo at least... (The press widely calls them Ex-New Majority or Ex-Concertación, which is frankly pathetic).

Well, the situation of alliances in the left for the upcoming elections beyond the plebiscite (local and regional*) is more or less as follows: Unidad por el Cambio wants unity with all the opposition, but doesn't want anything to do with the DC. The feeling is mutual and the DC also really doesn't like the Broad Front orbit but might support some limited deals with them. Progressive Convergence wants opposition unity, DC included (emphasis on that). What is left of Broad Front wants opposition unity, but really doesn't like the DC (or Progressive Convergence for that matter, but they don't have much choice there) and would prefer limited deals. The parties that left the Broad Front (Humanist etc) likely will follow their own paths but the electoral reality could push them towards an alliance with the communists or something.

*There have been some talks about canceling the elections for regional governors (which will be chosen for the first time in October) but while many want that, no one wants to pay the political price.

[kaoras]

Well, for obvious reasons the referendum has been postponed to October, 25th.

Municipal, Regional and Constituent convention (if Approve wins) elections have also been postponed to next year, April 11th.

The coronavirus is still not totally out of control, despite this government's best efforts. I don't know what statement is better to illustrate: "What if the virus mutates and becomes a good person?"(Minister of health, explaining why they are not pushing for total Quarantine or more restrictions) or "The most relevant vaccine for Coronavirus is love (Government spokeswoman)

[kaoras]

Coronavirus has sent Piñera approvals to long-unseen heights of... 21%, according to CADEM (the most favorable pollster), the bump coming mostly from right-wingers. I'm way to immerse in a left-wing bubble to have a nuanced view of how people are seeing the government response, but given that CADEM stopped asking (as they usually do for uncomfortable topics for the government) I'm guessing it is mediocre but enough to rally the right around the flag.

BTW, there's been a coronavirus outbreak in a prison, and the government pushed for a law giving parole to low-danger inmates during the emergency. The Right obviously went to the Constitutional Court because the law was discriminatory for not including... human-rights violators. Do you see? this is the kind of thing that makes people vote for whatever cardboard the left presents. 

[kaoras]

I assume "human right violators" essencially means those who applied the repression during the Pinochet days correct?

To be honest if so I would be surprised that Chile actually sent them to jail in the first placde; given how a peaceful transition like the one here normally means they are given amnesty alongside the real political prisoners.

Yeah, there are several of them in jail, mostly lower rank officials. I think the highest-ranking one that went to jail was Manuel Contreras, director of the secret police. They aren't in normal prisons btw, they have their own special and semi-luxurious prison.

[kaoras]

So, I made this a while ago. It shows the electoral trends between the blocs inside the Chilean left.




DC: Christian Democratic Party
Main Left: Socialist Party (PS), Party for Democracy (PPD), Radical Party (PR), Communist Party (PC) (between 2009-2017) + small parties and independents* within Concertación/New Majority alliance
Other Left: All leftist parties outside Concertacion/New Majority Alliances, notably Communist Party (between 1990-2009), Humanist Party (PH), Broad Front alliance (2017).

_{*There are minor inconsistencies regarding independents, I generally included them in Main Left (which is very debatable but is a small effect), except in 2008 and 2012 councils elections (I excluded them altogether, which means the total left vote is slightly higher those years)}  



As you can see, the Chilean left has maintained a relatively consistent level of support after the early 90's high, but the strength of its internal blocs has varied a lot. The Christian Democrats, the more moderate party has declined almost constantly en every election. The "main left" grew in the '90s and stabilized ever since until the Broad Front irruption in 2017, but its force within the Concertación alliance grew due to the decline of the DC. The "other left" (which are to the left of the Concertación) has had more variation but finally exploded in 2017 with the rise of Broad Front. Is notable that while the sector was dominated by the communist in the 90's , it diversified and kept attracting protest and very leftist voters even after the communist and its loyal voter base joined the Concertación /New Majority.

You could debate my choice of blocs, The DC for example at some points have "allied" with the radicals (90's) and socialists (late 2000s and early 2010s) but I would argue that those electoral and intra-alliance pacts had little effect on how voters perceived those parties and at the end of the day, PS and Radical have always been pushing for more left-wing policies than the DC. I also defend the inclusion of the communist in the main left between 2009 and 2017 because they were clearly part of the mainstream leftist coalition* and took a pragmatic stance which was very different from its previous (or posterior) behavior.

My point, however, is that the Chilean left has become more and more leftwing over the years, which is something that people usually don't talk about that much.


^{*Again, this is debatable between 2009 and 2013, but they were included in the mainstream electoral pact}

[kaoras]

Term limits have been approved. I know those things aren't very popular here but the amount of disgusting individuals and their clientelistic machines that are going to be out thanks to this makes it worthy IMO. 3 periods for Deputies and Mayors (12 years) and 2 for Senators (16 years).

In other news, Coronavirus situation is worse than ever thanks to government ineptitude and I'm honestly starting to think that the October Referendum might be in jeopardy. There is however strong resistance from the opposition to delaying it further, but who knows, Santiago is a disaster totally out of control and a second wave could be really damaging. (Although we are not even at the peak of the first one so...)

[kaoras]

At this point I guess the big question is how low can Piñera's approval get

Does Chile have some sort of impeachment procedure? And how likely is it to get used against Piñera?

Piñera is near its best approval since October if you believe CADEM at 27% (it has strong links with Piñera himself but it has the best methodology of the polls that come out regularly). Others like Activa have him down to 12% or up to 24% (Criteria, both are trash IMO).

Chile does have impeachment and it was already used last year in the context of the unrest. It failed in the Chamber of Deputies. The quorum is very high, the right alone can block it in the senate so it will never happen.

I do think that the right will get slaughtered in the next elections (Most political pundits think it won't so it will probably happen). But the left is so pathetic that I don't know who will really benefit. Maybe Chile emerges out of all of this with a totally new party system.

[kaoras]

As Chile passes Italy in the number of total cases of Coronavirus, Piñera decided to create an "instance" with experts to review the constitutionality of bills presented by Congress before they advance in the legislative process. He complained that there are too many unconstitutional bills (mainly related to the fact that a bill presented by Congress can't create new expending). As is the norm with this government, nobody knows how exactly that would work, but there were a lot of complaints from legislators saying that is undue interference.

Referring to this idea, Piñera also said that nobody is above the law, just as was revealed that he violated the protocols at the funeral of his uncle. His uncle died of "Pneumonia with Coronavirus" and protocol said that the coffin shouldn't be open. Piñera wanted to see the body of his uncle and the coffin was open even as his cousin shouted that they shouldn't do that. Besides, there were 31 people at the ceremony, when protocol says that there can only be 20 people maximum. His family said that the workers and musicians they brought "didn't count".

Today it was also revealed that the same day there were protests in a poor neighborhood of Santiago due to lack of food (a consequence of the lockdown), the Government palace made a bidding for gourmet food such as wild boar pate, caviar, among other fancy stuff.

If one trusts government data (which, well, let's say it requires quite some faith) maaaaybe we reached the peak, but the plebiscite remains uncertain.

[kaoras]

The Senate approved reserved seats for Indigenous people in the Constitutional Convention or Mixed Assembly. They will be elected by Single non-transferable vote on a nationwide district. Further details like the number of seats and if there will be a special electoral roll have yet to be discussed. The bill also states that the party and independent's list must have 10% of its candidates with some kind of disability (This looks like a well-intended idea that is going to create a huge mess later)

In political news. The relationship between the government and its coalition, Chile Vamos, has deteriorated severely. Main point of anger from Chile Vamos is that the government didn't present a veto for the term limits bill to exclude mayors. Rightist mayors that aren't going to be able to run again are furious, presenting an electoral study predicting electoral oblivion for the right without the power of incumbency. The parties of the coalition also complain that government help for the middle class (mainly interest-free loans) is insufficient, and are threatening to approve an opposition bill that would allow people to withdraw up to 10% of their private pension funds.

The Broad Front is going to decide this sunday (or to think at least) about its future alliances towards the rest of the left. The more radical parties, Convergencia Social and Comunes push toward an alliance with the Communist coalition and social movements, while the more moderated Revolución Democratica and Liberal party push towards an alliance with Progressive Convergence (PS, PPD, PR).

Also, Corona is finally starting to wind down, now lets hope that the government doesn't push to reopen too early (Oh, am I kidding...)

[kaoras]

Also, Corona is finally starting to wind down, now lets hope that the government doesn't push to reopen too early (Oh, am I kidding...)

Yeah, about that... The government announced the start of the reopening in the two least affected regions. Cinemas and restaurants can open with 25% of their capacity. But there really isn't a plan detailing further stages.

The electoral service has also said that there can't be a plebiscite if there still areas with quarantine in October. If it goes ahead, they are planning voting in 2 days and extending voting hours to deal with the virus. They have rejected doing mail or early voting.

Also, the right is in full meltdown mode over the withdrawal of pension funds. The government threw everything and the kitchen trying to prevent the approval of the bill (It required a quorum of 3/5 of the Chamber, so a disciplined right could have rejected it) including direct transfers of money to the "middle class", getting every deputy in a room, frenetic phone calls, etc. In the end, 13 deputies from the government coalition still voted in favor, enough to pass the bill.

While I agree that the withdrawal is a bad idea and I would prefer direct help from the state (although the government hadn't been offering that, so you could argue that is a good pressure measure), the whole spectacle has been a sight to behold. The government appeared absolutely desperate defending the private pension system that everyone hates. More importantly, one of the big arguments of the right for not touching it is that the pension funds are the property of each individual. After been hammering that for years, now the people ask, "if they are mine, why can't I use my own money". And the claims that it will affect their future pensions in 40 years aren't that effective when you are struggling heavily right now and your pensions is going to be a misery anyway.  What is baffling is, this was just the first phase. The government could have stopped this more easily later, in the Senate for example. Going all out here makes absolutely no sense.

Well, some hard-line deputies renounced to RN because the caucus didn't all reject the project, the UDI wants the interior minister head and some political pundits are suggesting that people should leave the country because this is obviously going to make us Venezuela.

Anyway, I find it funny how everything that has happened since October proved that Bachelet had been right about absolutely everything she tried to address and now their proposals look totally reasonable to some of the ones that opposed them mercilessly. 

[kaoras]

Chile Vamos meltdown over the 10% withdrawal of the pension funds continues.

• Government has suspended coordination meetings with the coalition until further notice
• 10 deputies have left the RN caucus (Out of a total of 34) and apparently will form a new, more hard-line caucus.
• EVOPOLI, the supposedly more centrist (in practice more Piñerist) party will "evaluate" if it continues as a member of the Chile Vamos because it says that the coalition it's failing its basic principles of defending the business elite.
• Relating to that, Interior Minister said that Chile Vamos lacks confidence in defending its ideals and that the government could continue with a smaller but more loyal coalition
• 2 UDI senators have said that they are open to approving the withdrawal. The opposition needs the defection of 2 votes from Chile Vamos to pass the bill in the upper chamber.

Besides all that, there has been a hilarious amount of doom and gloom from the pundit commentariat and rightist figures about the victory of populism and blablabla. The economy minister said that we are transforming into a Banana Country. Good thing that we were supposed to vote for the Right to not become Venezuela!

[kaoras]

The Broad Front decided to prioritize alliances with "social movements" and new parties (like some PS-splinters), seeking to include them inside the coalition. They remain open to alliance with former New Majority Parties like those in Progressive Convergence.

Well, I hope they are able to reach electoral alliances, but considering that the Broad Front is the living definition of the Gauche Caviar I have absolutely 0 faith that they won't put ideological purism before common sense as they did during Bachelet government.

Yesterday there were many protests and incidents in Santiago due to the incoming Congressional vote on the 10% withdrawal from the private pension funds (AFP). The government announced new measures for the middle class and apparently the right will be able to block the bill this time. A RN deputy denounced extorsions and bribes (offering them public offices) to get the Right in line.

[kaoras]

Right-wing meltdown continued over the week and has been truly a sight to behold. In the end, the withdrawal bill passed the Senate with a 2/3 majority effectively killing any realistic option for the government to stop it either via presidential-veto or the Constitutional Tribunal. Piñera finally waved the white flag and will sign the bill tomorrow. This is probably the most sensible thing he has done since October, given that a veto would have been a very effective way to set the whole country on fire (again).

Here's an English language piece that explains the Government crisis and general situation.  "Chile: Sebastian Pinera's government teeters towards collapse"
https://www.dw.com/en/chile-government-crisis/a-54266437

Honestly, this whole thing just shows that, as I said back in October, Piñera is totally incapable of ruling this country, and we are still stuck with him until 2022.

[kaoras]

Piñera isn't really "populist right", he took some populist instances in the campaign and he is probably more repression and police-brutality happy than even Trump, but opposing this project is probably the least populist thing he has done.

One has to understand, the core principles of the right, its whole raison d'être, is protecting Pinochet legacy and above all the economic model, making sure nothing ever changes. The right is so incestually linked to the business elite (and I mean that literally) that its action will never go against its wishes. This applies from Piñera to Jose Antonio Kast (the fire-breathing Pinochetist that would be the closest thing to a traditional populist right politician we have). This is why the approval of this project hit the government so hard, it opens the door to changing the private pension system left by Pinochet, a system that was very effective at creating a financial system and capital for the big business and fails miserably at giving decent pension to the people.

[kaoras]

Piñera did a major cabinet reshuffle trying to regain support from the right and to order Chile Vamos.
That means putting Victor Perez from UDI in the interior ministry, a well know pinochetist that was a Mayor designated by the dictatorship in the '80s and who did not see any sign of humans rights abuses during the unrest, perfect for a second round of protests!. RN president-and relative moderate Mario Desbordes goes to Defense and hard-liner and former presidential candidate Andres Allamand to Foreign Relations, between other changes.

[kaoras]

Oh, there's plenty of consensus regarding the human rights legacy. The consensus is that "Human's rights were bad, but everything else about Pinochet was good" but that is just lip service. UDI and RN defend staunchly the human rights abusers in jail or those who are now being prosecuted, crying about political persecution. The supposedly more moderate parties like EVOPOLI are totally silent while they, for example, defend ex-secret police agent Cristian Labbé who is in jail for crimes against humanity. Most of the right isn't even capable of saying the word "dictatorship", they talk about "Military government". Piñera even presented a law that would allow human rights abusers to finish their sentences in their homes!!

If Abascal is neo-franquist, ALL the Chilean right could be regarded as neo-pinochetist. Of course, you have some idiots that say unironically that Pinochet did nothing wrong.

Jose Antonio Kast (who gets along very well with Abascal BTW) is simply more overt about all of that. He still says that human rights abuses were bad, but say that the coup saved Chile (Well, UDI has that in their principles declaration), that Chile that day "choose freedom", that Pinochet was the best government in history and is the first in the line defending human rights abuses. Honestly, the main difference with the rest of the right is that he is more provocative in his style and even more economically orthodox and does a lot of pandering to conservative evangelicals (which is why he will never truly catch fire, his ceiling is the 13% of overt pinochetists that the polls show)

And the right won't change because their voters allow it. Take for example this old thread https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=163483.0 , you have people defending Labbe himself saying that it doesn't matter that he is a fire-breathing Pinochetist because he is good at his job. The fact is that, as Piñera himself put it, if you worked for the Dictatorship you are at best a "passive accomplice" of the human rights abuses or at wort a criminal. And the voters have absolutely no problem electing all those human beings that only care about basic human decency if the problem is in Venezuela or Cuba. One of the main reasons why Chile will never get over the coup and the dictatorship.

[kaoras]

If Abascal is neo-franquist, ALL the Chilean right could be regarded as neo-pinochetist. Of course, you have some idiots that say unironically that Pinochet did nothing wrong.

Jose Antonio Kast (who gets along very well with Abascal BTW) is simply more overt about all of that. He still says that human rights abuses were bad, but say that the coup saved Chile (Well, UDI has that in their principles declaration), that Chile that day "choose freedom", that Pinochet was the best government in history and is the first in the line defending human rights abuses. Honestly, the main difference with the rest of the right is that he is more provocative in his style and even more economically orthodox (...

I get the Chilean right has a lot in common with the Spanish right. With regard to the dictatorships, I suspect the difference between Antonio Kast and Santiago Abascal is on the nuances (the fact that Abascal avoids explicit mentions to Franco does not imply he's not a Francoist). Also, Vox is economically "orthodox" and not "populist". Sorry of the question is off-topic, but I'd like to know something about the links between Kast, the other factions of the Chilean right and Donald Trump (Vox is acting right now as the Trump's branch in Spain)

Kast usually praises Trump on twitter because of course he does. But AFAIK he doesn't have any real links with him. He does have very close ties with Bolsonaro, and he has visited him several times. Maybe there's something shady going on.

[kaoras]

Broad Front has decided that they will go directly to the first turn in the next presidential election and won't even bother doing a primary with the rest of the opposition or trying to reach a common program. They want to LEAD the next government you see... Same galaxy brain logic that ended with us being stuck with Piñera. Reason #539 I won't ever vote for them.

In the ex-New Majority some people are wary that the main candidate of the left in the polls is communist Daniel Jadue, and have begun to push names like former Bachelet's foreign minister Heraldo Muñoz, socialist senator Carlos Montes and a bunch of other people. I don't know why they worry so much given the election is so far away and Jadue popularity (just like Lavin) is basically just name recognition, but Chilean politicians aren't exactly the smartest people around. At this point, I will probably support whoever does at least some lip service to Bachelet.

The government has said that the plebiscite won't be delayed further, so the Right is in mini-panic state given that the polls seem inamovible 70-15 in favour of the new constitutions. They are trying to scare people and delegitimize the result in advance, establishing arbitrary participation goals that are much higher that the participation of the elections when they and Piñera were elected. Juaquin Lavin, main presidential hopeful of the right, however, is full for Approve, because he doesn't want anything to do with the sinking ship that is "Reject the new constitution".

[kaoras]

Juaquin Lavin, main presidential hopeful of the right, however, is full for Approve, because he doesn't want anything to do with the sinking ship that is "Reject the new constitution".

And here I was hoping for someone who isn't a washed-up apparatchik from twenty years ago -_- Chile seems to be getting to a Peru level of politicians refusing to stop running for President (wasn't Piñera supposed to run in 1989 before he got hit with some scandal?)

You are mixing things. Piñera wanted to run for senator in 1989 for the Christian Democratic party but since he wasn't given a slot, he joined RN instead and was indeed elected senator for that party. (Piñera remaining DC is an interesting timeline, since he probably would be complaining about how radical the left has become along with the likes of Mariana Aylwin and Soledad Alvear instead of doing mass humans right violations and giving a totally inept response to the pandemic)

The scandal you are thinking is the Kyotazo, when wanted to run for president in 1993 but audio leaks of him talking not very nicely about Evelyn Matthei (who funnily enough also ended up being the candidate of the right in 2013) sunk the candidatures of both.

But you are true about the Perú thing. Broad Front most likely will run Beatriz Sanchez again and the only reason that the ex-New Majority is even trying with new names is that Ricardo Lagos already totally tanked when he tried in 2017 and Bachelet has said like 10 times that there's no chance in hell of her running again. The problem of the center-left is that the only figure with a vision for this country and a popular appeal that goes beyond the "at least we are not the right" mantra is... Bachelet*

The right doesn't struggle that much with that because their political project is clear: maintain the status quo and please the business elite. They are resorting to Lavin because of how dire their situation is.


_{*Bacheletismo is a criminally understudied phenomenon in that, unlike the rest of Latinoamerica, the personality cult that exists is totally organic and unwanted by Bachelet herself. It doesn't get much attention because poor and old people don't use twitter but the number of portraits and mugs with her face that you cand find among regular people is unmatched by any living politician. There are even blocs of social housing that were named after her by the decision of their neighbors.}

[kaoras]

If Bachelet keeps her word not to run again - which I was cynical towards, but it seems she won't run after all -, most of the usual suspects would be removed from the board for good due to age or unpopularity, though several 2017 candidates and precandidates are extremely likely to try again for the second time (J. A. Kast, F. Kast, Ossandón, Beatriz Sánchez).

Why would she run again? She has a better thing to do at the ONU and I don't think she has much interest in saving the parties that were so unloyal to her in the first place. Besides, she may govern as a moderate because she understands how to get the things done, but if push comes to shove I don't doubt for a second she would very happily vote for and support Jadue, so there won't be any desperate "stop the commie" run from her side. Bachelet also understands that is bad for the country the lack of renovation, if she was interested only in power and not the national interest, she would have used her base to polarize the country and become the Chilean version of Evita Perón. And she would have been totally capable to do so.