2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b89d1b54-490e-4440-b3b6-29d27d0081dd
1 - R+11
2 - R+7
3 - R+7
4 - R+4
5 - R+5
6 - R+5
7 - R+4
8 - R+5
9 - R+6
10 - R+6
11 - D+18
12 - D+28
13 - D+32
The Michigan GOP would like to introduce you to this totally fair map which definitely has no ulterior motives.

how do u directly upload a pic like that?
but it's amazing u could draw a map that lopsided that clean looking.  The only obvious give away is arm reaching into Pontiac.

I copy and paste into discord and use that link here.

[lfromnj]

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/ICRC_Whos_applying_682238_7.pdf

just interesting stats
So the commission applicants are a decent bit whiter, they are also 60% male, and also much older than the average Michigan voter, but however 35% are Democrat to 15% Republican, doesn't really matter , just really hillarious its the most Republican Demographic but most partisan applicants are Democrats.

[lfromnj]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole, and Ann Arbor goes with Wayne better than the Exurbs.

Not really, Ann Arbor works ok with the 3 Western cities in Wayne but anything not part of the 2 VRA seats should be put with Monroe.

[lfromnj]

Did my Michigan map:

Between 3 and 4 fix that unnecesary double cross.(just split 1 county)
Then I'd say put battle creek in the Kalamazoo district and  put all of Jackson with the Lansing district.  Dont really like the flint district but not sure how to fix it within your map.(would require a very large rotation)

[lfromnj]

Tbf Ann Arbor doesn't really go well anywhere, the closest county in a cultural term is probably Ingham which splits 2 metroes and is also a GOP gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

Opinion of this Oakland Macomb split?
Its not really partisan(both districts are Clinton +7 and Clinton +5. Making it more compact would just switch those numbers but I wanted a white collar vs blue collar split.

Its very ugly and would scream gerrymandered to idiots but I think it better represents the COI's of the north Detroit suburbs.)Grosse point is white collar but thats way too far away to "gerrymander" inside.

[lfromnj]

I don't think the weird lines warrant the (crude) class separation.

I don't think its really worth it either just because of how ugly it is but was just gathering some ideas.

[lfromnj]

I don't think the weird lines warrant the (crude) class separation.

I don't think its really worth it either just because of how ugly it is but was just gathering some ideas.

Also, if you want a "WWC district", you'd do better taking in more of Macomb then going after uber-yuppie Royal Oak of all places.

I avoided royal oak. the cities to the south of it are more working class. (also I consider Pontiac working class of course)

[lfromnj]

Uh, the idea of crude class-based redistricting sounds ugly.

 I mean different classes clearly have different interests? And its still within the same metro area etc. Again my version was too ugly but Im trying to cook up a reasonable version.

[lfromnj]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

[lfromnj]

Did you split the tri county lansing metro Idaho?

Also for your northern 2 districts. Divide them east west. Don't put a cross lake district besides for the UP district.

[lfromnj]

Did you split the tri county lansing metro Idaho?

Also for your northern 2 districts. Divide them east west. Don't put a cross lake district besides for the UP district.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/00ba0430-eccf-4ee4-9cb5-82090bd38e07
no it's kept together
and It's actually really hard to do it east/west, because of Muskegon and the road connection to the UP.  

Turns out we can make copies of maps now on DRA
Anyway made 2 edits to your map. Kept Kalamazoo whole and tried the East West thing. Not sure I like the split of Saginaw Bay and Flint into 3 separate districts. Its not a mega partisan gerrymander as you merely made Lansing Lean to Likely D from tossup and then made Flint Likely R from tossup. Whitmer lost the pink district 82 votes btw !. You did go for a light GOP gerrymander in Macomb with the black opportunity district but its not the worst idea as its still fairly compact.

[lfromnj]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

sending both VRA seats into Oakland would be interesting.  But they can both be kept within Wayne, I think that's the best configuration

Agree I prefer to avoid that cross(I might put southfield in a vra seat and grosse point in the macomb seat.)

[lfromnj]

ok i tried my best at a fair COI-based map with partisan data off. think i'm pretty satisfied with it since it's compact, only splits 10 counties, and keeps the grand rapids, lansing and tri-cities areas together. the sacrifices made are the detroit exurbs (shared among the two suburban detroit districts and lansing) and wayne's WWC neighborhoods (necessary for VRA districts)

it ends up being 7-6 obama, 7-6 trump, 8-5 whitmer. tipping point seat is CD8 which is consistently 2-5 points to the right of the state, so there's a GOP tilt


MI-01: Obama +1 | Romney +9 | Trump +23
MI-02: McCain +6 | Romney +14 | Trump +9
MI-03: Obama +2 | Romney +6 | Trump +24
MI-04: Obama +6 | Romney +5 | Trump +21
MI-05: Obama +24 | Obama +18 | Clinton +1
MI-06: Obama +7 | Romney +2 | Trump +8
MI-07: Obama +20 | Obama +14 | Clinton +16
MI-08: Obama +10 | Obama +3 | Trump +5
MI-09: Obama +16 | Obama +15 | Clinton +6
MI-10: McCain +1 | Romney +10 | Trump +31
MI-11: Obama +8 | Obama +1 | Clinton +2
MI-12: Obama +61 | Obama +62 | Clinton +54
MI-13: Obama +64 | Obama +63 | Clinton +48

Could you post the DRA map?
I want to make a change or 2.

[lfromnj]

CVparty?
Opinion of these metro changes based on your map?

The median district is still Trump +5 but its now the Macomb seat. The lansing seat moves to Trump +2.4. The Flint seat is Clinton +0.6.

Also changed the cut of Flint county I took but didn't really make a major difference.

[lfromnj]

It seems the most important decision is regarding Macomb and the Thumb. Keeping a district fully with Macomb all but forces Levin and Stevens together while also putting Flint with the thumb which should be Likely GOP.

However keeping something like the current MI 10th will help D's a decent bit even if the Detroit districts expand as Washentaw can take all the red territory and still remain Safe D.

[lfromnj]

Honestly I would give Bay and the county to the north to the 1st and give Leelanau and Grand Traverse to the 2nd.

[lfromnj]

Pontiac shouldn't really be reached for, its way too far away and messes up the rest of the Oakland district.Southfield is ok though.

[lfromnj]

@tack Detroit VRA does matter slightly here partisanwise in my whole detroit seat non partisan map.



I put Washentaw with Western Wayne and Livonia  rather than Monroe. Monroe went with Downriver + Dearborn. However the Monroe seat is fairly swingy by 2016 numbers at Clinton +6. 2008 had the same partisan numbers for both "suburban seats" but 2016 had a wildy different one.

Overall the effect of the VRA and unpacking minorities I finds only really takes effect in the RGV and Detroit Michigan. The remaining Democratic complaints about packing minorities really has to do with the fact that white libs are around those minorities. A 60% black seat would be perfectly fine for them in MS because it would be 61% D or so. A 60% black seat in Philly is "packing" because its 90% D due to liberal whites. Even in Georgia the most overpacked seats wouldn't be a southern suburb 60% black seat but rather the 52% black seat in Fulton that might actually be getting a bit whiter due to Atlanta gentrification.

[lfromnj]

You do realize that was with 2010 pop?


Can we get a big F.

[lfromnj]

Ultimately my view is is that the question of performing is a thorny one, but if you look at the effects of drawing a Black seat into Oakland it becomes a lot easier. As a consequence of that choice, a map drawer is thus able to draw a Livingston+Oakland seat, a Thumb-Detroit exurbia seat, and a Flint-Saginaw-Bay City-Midland seat, which are all excellent CoI and avoid ugly stuff like forcing Livingston in with Lansing.

It's not like a Pontiac-Detroit seat is even that hideous either--it's more compact and attractive than basically any other VRA seat outside of Chicago and Atlanta.

MS?

[lfromnj]

Ok, here's my counterproposal. Fairly similar to my earlier map, but with a more compact Detroit area. Not in love with the boundary between the 1st and 2nd but not sure of the best way to improve it.


Sorry for the absence of images, not able to screenshot presently.

You probably should try to avoid a West to East MI district in central north. Trade between 1 and 2.

[lfromnj]

Its legal if under the VRA. The current map has it.

[lfromnj]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

They had actual ok maps* and then they remade into these. They split up Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor and East Lansing and Lansing.
Somehow Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor have "different" values according to Dem hack public comments but Monroe County and Ypsilanti make perfect sense to place together.
This districting process is equally as bad as the 2010 process but at least the 2010 process faced media criticism.
I now 100% oppose independent commissions because at least partisan gerrymandering is in the public light instead of all this stuff.

[lfromnj]

Here's where the draft state maps stand:

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429910545734438912
https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1429898956960669705

Those maps are oddly satisfying

They had actual ok maps* and then they remade into these. They split up Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor and East Lansing and Lansing.
Somehow Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor have "different" values according to Dem hack public comments but Monroe County and Ypsilanti make perfect sense to place together.
This districting process is equally as bad as the 2010 process but at least the 2010 process faced media criticism.
I now 100% oppose independent commissions because at least partisan gerrymandering is in the public light instead of all this stuff.

Nah the real reason the college towns were split was because that proposed map had only 2 Dem districts, both safe, and 5 GOP ones. Then as few people noted that Biden won the region overall and the commission as a whole couldn't justify giving R's a supermajority of seats in this region with that data.

No it is obvious lying because they said they weren't even going to look at partisan data today.  Maybe they could justify it later on other grounds but today on COI grounds the idea that Monroe and Ypsilanti belong together just show independent commissions are useless. The intent is obviously partisan in the end but they left that secret and tried to justify it on the most absurd grounds possible. There is 0 point to this charade when they are just drawing what a Democratic legislature would have drawn with previous Michigan rules which still limited township and county splits.