latest Betfair odds

[Lyin' Steve]

Are there charts for this?

[Lyin' Steve]

Christie > Cruz wut

[Lyin' Steve]

I would buy Clinton right now.

The narrative has been that while she's got strong fundamentals, she's confused and stumbling and making a mess of her campaign and embroiled in scandal and using the "I'm a woman" argument instead of making a real case for herself.

Last night showed that she's got this covered.  Her campaign isn't going to collapse.  She's solid.

Bernie isn't going to win.  Clinton hasn't even attacked him yet.  If he gets close to winning the nomination he will be destroyed through oppo and 1-on-1 debates just like she tried to do with Obama.  Except Bernie doesn't have Obama's intelligence, charisma, or poise.

[Lyin' Steve]

When did Obama start surging? Holy crap he was only at 11% this time back in 2007. LOL at being tied with Al Gore. Hillary must have had a really great fall 2007.

I remember around November 2007 an article came out in Time that basically said "What happened to Obama?"  He was at about 15% to Clinton's 45% and his star had fallen.

Iowa really saved him.

[Lyin' Steve]

If you assume winning_individual/chance_of_nomination is the chance they would have in the GE given that they win the nomination, Trump looks like the most electable Pub according to the bettors, haha! Both Rubio and Jeb underwater, but Trump more likely than not to win. Biden of course is all but a lock. A thing of beauty. Not even Carson up 20 in swingstates has a real chance of winning if he gets the nomination.

They give Biden an 80+% chance in the GE.

[Lyin' Steve]

Trump 8.8
Biden 8.4
Trump 7.2

That's gotta be a good sign

[Lyin' Steve]

The "winning individual" #s are fun to compare to people's 2009 predictions of who would be the 45th president:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=101968.0

In 2009, Rubio hadn't even been elected to statewide office yet.  And it's hard to imagine anyone back then predicting that Bernie Sanders would at some point be the markets' fourth place pick to win the 2016 presidential election, or that Donald Trump would be sixth.

lol at the Martha Coakley talk in that thread.

[Lyin' Steve]

Buy Cruz, sell Bush.  Those numbers are way off.

Was Edwards doing that badly in October 2007 that Al Gore had a better chance than him?  I thought up until January he still had a plausible path by winning Iowa and using that momentum to win South Carolina.  In the end he beat Hillary in Iowa anyway.

[Lyin' Steve]

Why is Trump surging today of all days?  The last 48 hours were bad for him.

[Lyin' Steve]

Hillary + Sanders is 101, is there a reason why you can't just sell both of them and be guaranteed a 1% profit?

[Lyin' Steve]

By the way, I love from the beginning of this thread, one of the odds posts:

64. Donald Trump - 126
74. Ben Carson/Karl Rove/George Clooney - 201

[Lyin' Steve]

Who'd have ever thought that Trump would be the 3rd most likely person to become president of the United States?

[Lyin' Steve]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

[Lyin' Steve]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

To be honest, I think much of it was that there'd been so much trading on him in 2005 and 2006 that there was just an enormous # of shares for and against him that people were holding on to by late 2007, and so people were dumping them by that point, so they could get their money back without having to wait until August 2008, when all the shares would cash out.  Pretty sure that's also why Condoleeza Rice was still being traded at that point.

Yeah but that doesn't explain why he was at 4.6, does it?

[Lyin' Steve]

I would buy the hell out of Cruz

[Lyin' Steve]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

I am liking those 116% odds that someone wins the Republican nomination. (Seriously, though, someone probably just loaded up on Cruz stock and sent the market into disequilibrium)

I should clarify when I post number they are from PredictIt (leaving BetFair to Morden as he has historical figures), which has been much higher until recently as I explained at the top of this page. 116 is slightly on the high end, but I don't think it's because of Cruz who has been solidly in second in this market for awhile. You can probably knock off those 1%ers to start and it begins to get a bit more realistic. The best you should be able to get is 106 (guaranteed .5% profit by shorting everyone)+a few for the sell side being one cent more expensive depending on the last transaction. Not terribly far off considering all those costs. Everyone might be a penny too high.

Can you do that in a different thread?  Clutter/confusing.

[Lyin' Steve]

Bush has less than sixty hours to live in this race.  On Sunday all these gamblers who were giving him double-digit odds to win this entire time will feel silly.

[Lyin' Steve]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

Even now?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please don't jynx it until he drops out.

[Lyin' Steve]

RNC
Trump, outright - 29.4%
Cruz, outright - 7.9%
Rubio, outright - 0.2%
Trump, convention - 39.1%
Cruz, convention - 22.2%
Rubio, convention - 0.5%
John P. Yob, convention - 0.2%
Other, convention - 0.6%

DNC
Clinton - 61%
Sanders -39%

What is this nonsense

[Lyin' Steve]

RNC
Trump, outright - 29.4%
Cruz, outright - 7.9%
Rubio, outright - 0.2%
Trump, convention - 39.1%
Cruz, convention - 22.2%
Rubio, convention - 0.5%
John P. Yob, convention - 0.2%
Other, convention - 0.6%

DNC
Clinton - 61%
Sanders -39%

What is this nonsense

For the DNC, I factored in that the primaries are basically almost out of pro-Hillary states, and the chance that she may still be indicted.

Is this just your numbers?
I see you're new here, that's not what this thread is for.  This is for updates on an odds tracker from betfair.com.
I made a thread just yesterday inviting people to post their personal odds.

[Lyin' Steve]

Post-Rocky Mountain Tuesday update…

Up: Trump, Cruz
Down: Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 7.2
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 73.5
Cruz 13.8
Kasich 4.3
Ryan 2.1
Bush 1.5
Romney 0.8

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.4
Trump 20.4
Sanders 4.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 1.6

Clinton individual seems about right, god damn.  Really puts the whole race in perspective.

[Lyin' Steve]

Short Castro all day.  Hard to believe they've got him at 2.5x more likely than second-favorite Kaine to win the VP slot.  Especially now that Trump is the nominee and Hillary will crush with hispanics regardless.  Castro was the hispander choice back when Rubio looked like the likely opponent.

[Lyin' Steve]

Dem VP nominee
Castro 29.4
Warren 16.7
Kaine 16.1
Sanders 12.2

Where can I go to make money off these people who still think Castro has a 1-in-3 chance of being the VP?

[Lyin' Steve]

Thank god Obama didn't pick Webb. Biden's/Ryan's placements tells you all you need to know about the validity of these VP markets...

I do find it interesting that Palin was #3. Wasn't the conventional wisdom once McCain picked her that she "came out of nowhere?"

Yeah, very surprised to see Palin at #3, and no sign of Kaine.