Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012

[Slander and/or Libel]

Also relevant, the current 538 projection is just one state off from the 2012 map:

And their polls-plus model is exactly the same. But that doesn't change the idea that there is only a 0.4% chance of it ACTUALLY being the same. Take the probabilities of the current projection being right in each state and multiply them, and the result is a very small number.

This assumes those probabilities are independent, which is completely false.

[Slander and/or Libel]

This means almost nothing; even if the map is same, they can just say "we're in the 0.4%".

So by your logic, probabilities mean nothing unless they're either 100% or 0%?

Perhaps not nothing, but I find little utility in this type of statistic.

Right, that's what I've been struggling with. What is this supposed to mean? If it's just a snapshot of where the race stands, cool. But it purports to be more. It purports to be a prediction, and it purports to tell us that if we ran this election 5 times, then on average, Trump would win. Is that true? What does it mean for it to be true or not? What value does it have in a predictive sense? If the map is indeed the same as 2012, is there any way to go back and say, "Yeah, but in mid-July, it really was only a 0.4% chance that it would be the same"?

In short, this is based on analysis of a whole lot of data, but is there any reason to consume it uncritically without acknowledging the mountain of assumptions that must go into such an analysis, and potentially fatally compromise it?