Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012 (user search)
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  Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012  (Read 1549 times)
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« on: July 11, 2016, 10:37:58 PM »

Keep in mind the the chances of "peripheral" battlegrounds like Minnesota, Michigan, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri flipping are much higher now than they would be (assuming the same polling numbers) in October. If it were October, the odds of the map being different would almost certainly be lower (given the same polling numbers), since only a handful of states would have a greater than 10% chance of flipping.
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