NY-20 Special Election

[Alcon]

Tedisco 34,730 (51.0%)
Murphy 33,360 (49.0%)

Lame and useless: Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Otsego.  Got a link on any, cinyc?

[Alcon]

Could someone link to the site with Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess and Otsego?  Can't find it for my life, but I have an automated update program hooked up for the others.

[Alcon]

Excluding CDDO:

Tedisco 39,543 (51.0%)
Murphy 37,929 (49.0%)

Tedisco is crashing a bit in Saratoga, but improving in the smaller counties.

[Alcon]

Updated with cinyc's numbers from CDDO:

Tedisco 46,694 (50.6%)
Murphy 45,598 (49.4%)

[Alcon]

This number includes Delaware and the latest from all counties.

Tedisco 53,493 (50.4%)
Murphy 52,548 (49.6%)

[Alcon]

Tedisco 56,079 (50.5%)
Murphy 55,039 (49.4%)

[Alcon]

Murphy is running out of counties where he's leading.

Tedisco 59,252 (50.5%)
Murphy 58,133 (49.5%)

[Alcon]

Tedisco 61,858 (50.5%)
Murphy 60,663 (49.5%)

[Alcon]

Reporting seems to have grinded to a hault, which means here on out, it's mostly precincts were the ballot reconciliation did not match.  And Columbia, which obviously is being slow.  It will be a long night, and longer than just night, but it's hard to see Murphy pulling it off.  I like 1,000 or so.

Edit: Spoke too soon.

Tedisco 64,143 (50.4%)
Murphy 63,063 (49.6%)

Edit: And again, Saratoga.

Tedisco 67,755 (50.6%)
Murphy 66,428 (49.4%)

[Alcon]

I have 68,394 to 66,891 (+1497).

[Alcon]

A Murphy >70 precinct just came in.  Looks like there's some chance that the remaining Saratoga precincts trend Springs.  Hard to imagine it will be enough.

Tedisco 68,641 (50.5%)
Murphy 67,322 (49.5%)

Tedisco +1,319

[Alcon]

Later Saratoga precincts seem to be disproportionally Democratic.  This could tighten.

Tedisco 69,369 (50.5%)
Murphy 68,122 (49.5%)

Margin: Tedisco +1,247

[Alcon]

Damn.

Tedisco 74,413 (50.1%)
Murphy 74,183 (49.9%)

[Alcon]

28 votes

Tedisco 75,692 (50.0%)
Murphy 75,664 (50.0%)

3 left in Saratoga, 8 in Columbia

[Alcon]

Columbia in.

Murphy 76,825 (50.1%)
Tedisco 76,541 (49.9%)

Murphy +284

[Alcon]

Tightened.

One precinct outstanding in Saratoga, and that's it.

Murphy 77,208 (50.0%)
Tedisco 77,127 (50.0%)

Murphy +81

[Alcon]

All but 1 Saratoga precinct in now:
Tedesco 76,278 (50.08%)
Murphy  76,047 (49.92%)

Your Washington is out-of-date, I think.  Pretty sure it's Murphy +81.

[Alcon]

My calculations have it at 76,956 - 76,907 for Murphy, using the AP totals and calculating the difference between their results for Saratoga and the county results (which are all in).

They are behind in Washington.  I'm 99.9% sure it's 77,208-77,127 Murphy.

[Alcon]

While we're at it:  This is a great example of why press turnout stories always suck.

[Alcon]

So there is still one precinct remaining, right?

Yep.  Very possible it may flip the race back over.

[Alcon]

Maybe one includes provisional ballots and the other doesn't.

[Alcon]

Provisionals, too.  I imagine that provisionals will essentially cancel out military absentees, and we'll be left at square one.

[Alcon]

Affidavit (provisional) ballots, too, folks!  I have no idea why the media is totally ignoring them.

[Alcon]

We're a republic.

He's technically right.  It's a direct vote, albeit one on republican representatives, but it's still "democratic" in the stringent sense.

With Rowan on this one.  If there were a pattern emerging that would be sufficient to overturn this margin, we would have seen it by now.  Nothing's impossible, but within a rational explanation for why a last-minute veer will happen, it's safe to assume it won't.

[Alcon]

We've seen a last-minute veer in this race before, those final precincts coming in far more strongly for Murphy than we had expected.

That's different though.  You can have a few polling places outstanding, with multiple precincts each.  And ballots aren't "clustered" like that in this scenario.  And...