Who will win the Senate control in November?

[NHLiberal]

At this point the Democratic Party is definitely favored.

I'm predicting pickups in WV, AR, LA, SD, and MT at the moment.   

[NHLiberal]

If the candidate was literally anyone other than Scott Brown, NH could fall in a wave.

Well considering the most conservative member of the House (who's on the record as a birther who applauded the booing of a gay soldier and an Agenda 21 loon) was considering a run as the alternative, the NHGOP was boned from the start.

Never underestimate my state's Republican Party's ability to blow elections. They're basically a step above the Florida Democrats.

[NHLiberal]

R Pickup: WV, SD, AR, MT, NC,
D Pickup: KY

R + 5
D + 1

If the Democrats lose North Carolina and Arkansas, than they aren't winning Kentucky.

Not necessarily. Despite what the preliminary Senate models show that always put leaning races way too safe at the start, it's very reasonable to argue that Democrats have a higher chance of gaining Kentucky than holding Arkansas. Polls show Cotton doing better than McConnell. Personally, I have Republicans winning SD, WV, AR, LA, and MT and Dems picking up KY for R+4.

[NHLiberal]

Dems lose initially 5 seats which they win NC and either win AK/AR combo.

Wildcards LA/Ga runoff and Angus King will tip the balance after Nov.

But, with almost IL senate 2016, a safe Dem pickup, he will stay on in Dem majority.
 

Why would Arkansas and Alaska be won or lost in a combo, and why would North Carolina have to be the opposite result? I tend to think that Democrats will hold Alaska and North Carolina while Republicans pick up Arkansas, but all three of these races could conceivably be won/lost by either party, with the toughest being Arkansas for the Dems.

And I'm not totally comfortable calling IL-Sen a safe Dem pickup. In fact, I think Republicans have lower odds in Wisconsin than Illinois. I'm of the mind that Kirk will retire rather than run a tough race, but I think if he does run he could be competitive. I could see Dems taking the race for granted and/or getting a weak candidate, and despite the Democratic lean of Illinois, Mark Kirk is a damn good Senator.

[NHLiberal]

Cook has rated IL and Co lean Dem, while Pa, WI are tossup/tilt GOP and NV tossup lean Dem.

I am assuming Dems will nominate Robin Kelly to energize the blk and latino support. Kirk has moderate appeal.

I don't think Cook has rated 2016 Senate races yet. At least I couldn't find it. Can you give me the link?

[NHLiberal]

Personally, I have Republicans losing SD, WV, AR, LA, and MT and Dems picking up KY for R+4.

Do you mean Republicans Winning?

Yes. Fixed.