Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 17, 2024, 10:24:03 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
Thread note


Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 209315 times)
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« on: November 06, 2018, 06:25:07 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 06:23:18 PM
Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point.

Barely anything is in.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 07:31:58 PM »
Where's Mizzoulan right now? Comstock is getting blanched like he predicted.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 08:14:44 PM »
Most of Miami is still out guys.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 10:05:46 PM »
this is basically a better version of 2016. I don't see a 2020 realignment.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 10:10:07 PM »
With this level of polarization, this nation is in deep sh**t.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 10:34:36 PM »
Democrats aren't getting anything meaningful done anytime soon until a crash happens.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 10:37:48 PM »
Quote from: peenie weenie on November 06, 2018, 10:37:06 PM
Quote from: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:34:36 PM
Democrats aren't getting anything meaningful done anytime soon until a crash happens.

Do you mean electorally or legislatively? Because legislatively that was a given.

Both since one is dependent on another.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 10:41:31 PM »
Quote from: Shadows on November 06, 2018, 10:39:46 PM
Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states).

Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close.

Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well !

The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!)

Cool so everything can get blocked in the Senate with a GOP senate.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 10:45:41 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 10:45:09 PM
Doug jones is now Safe R in 2020 barring Moore again.

Yep. He should just retire.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 10:49:33 PM »
Quote from: Democrats for Knute Buehler on November 06, 2018, 10:47:05 PM
This feels alarmingly like 2010. Trump could get a 2nd term.

Tonight makes me confident in 2024 but not 2020.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 10:50:32 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:49:04 PM
Senate is gone until 2024.

Wow.

Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R?

Dems are doing well enough in urban areas tonight for me to be confident in NV.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 10:53:46 PM »
Weirdly enough Tester is doing fine right now.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 10:56:55 PM »
At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2018, 11:10:41 PM »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win 👁 on November 06, 2018, 11:08:08 PM
Quote from: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:56:55 PM
At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY.

Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes...

Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin...

The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate.

And that is a massive problem.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 11:12:16 PM »
Can King actually lose?
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2018, 11:15:48 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:13:24 PM
Quote from: YE on November 06, 2018, 11:10:41 PM
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win 👁 on November 06, 2018, 11:08:08 PM
Quote from: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:56:55 PM
At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY.

Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes...

Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin...

The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate.

And that is a massive problem.

But it didnt use to be when Dems had 2 senators from ND, a senate leader from SD and could win in races basically everywhere.

Exactly.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2018, 11:28:37 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:26:52 PM
Golden just overtook Poliquin in ME-2.

Win that and go 3/4 in Iowa and there's at least some decent results in the WWC.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2018, 01:29:58 AM »
Quote from: 2,868,691 on November 07, 2018, 01:27:59 AM
Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

If it weren’t for FL I’d agree.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2018, 01:34:53 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 01:34:23 AM
RIP Heller



RIP......
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2018, 02:02:44 AM »
Heller is getting blanched.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2018, 02:07:11 AM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 02:05:55 AM
Quote from: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:03:21 AM

54-42 Rosen. Overperforming Clinton's 52-42 margin by 2 points. Rosen wins.

Yeah, there's no come back for that.   Rosen wins.  Sisolak too.



All statewide Dems up!
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2018, 02:13:57 AM »
Honestly going back to D-NV after seeing the NV results
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2018, 02:16:19 AM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 02:13:43 AM
Quote from: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:07:27 AM
Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election.

Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead.

One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs.

Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2018, 03:18:52 AM »
Quote from: Storr on November 07, 2018, 03:16:58 AM
The only statewide race in Nevada Republicans are in the lead for is Sec. of State Cegavske, who is the only statewide incumbent running for reelection.
http://www.silverstateelection.com/NVOther/

He's done since a fair chunk of CD-01 and CD-04 is out.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,853


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2018, 02:35:58 PM »
Is there any chance for a victory in FL AG Commissioner? It's the closest of all statewide races.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 12 queries.