2020 Poll Hype Thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Things I could see qualifying as "meltdown"

Biden +17 or higher nationally
Biden +15 in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin
Biden +10 in Florida
Biden +6 in Texas or Ohio
Biden tied or leading in South Carolina

Biden crossing 60?

Biden up in Missouri?

Horrific senate polls in SC, MT, GA, AK, KS, IA, even AL???

Let’s not limit our imaginations!

Espy up in Mississippi?
Biden and Ahlers up in South Dakota?
Tennessee within single digits?

If Espy is up in Mississippi, Biden could be as well.

Why would Biden be improving in Mississippi even if he wins?

Seems to rural and given rural black turnout was down this time....not many educated whites either.

I expect at minimum mid 40s for Biden in MS this time.

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Pearl County doesn't exist?

Think he meant Pearl River County -- one of my favorite county names Nationwide. 

Pearl River is an extremely Republican county. Biden will do well to hold Trump under 80% there.

Maybe he meant Rankin, where the city of Pearl is? Although I expect the Biden swing in the Jackson area to be more in Madison (the city and to some extent the county), and actually in the Jackson city limits, rather than Rankin. Similar situation to DeSoto.

Yeah, I meant Rankin County. Trump being reduced to 70% or less in the county would constitute a strong swing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The gig is up on trafalgar.  Totally figured out how they manipulate the numbers.   Look at the last page every report.  It gives you the relative % of the poll by congressional district.  In EVERY case the lower percentage districts are the democratic districts.   They over sample and then cut back the dem districts to give the narrative they want. Trump by 2 in Florida is amazing news bc that means Biden is truly ahead.

If that is how they do it then they need to continue doing it that way. Otherwise their house effect is erased and their polls actually tell us less than they did before.
Also, welcome to the forum.