Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[adma]

8 pt improvement for the PQ over '08, PLQ under 50. So she'll be spinning a moral victory for the next while.

I suppose QS might, too, for quadrupling the ADQ.

[adma]

Still, I can't imagine the PQ that high and the ADQ that low as per the predictions.

[adma]

It's a little like Ottawa Centre relative to the rest of Ottawa.

[adma]

At this rate, I'm even wondering whether Charest might pull off an "Alison Redford surprise"--not by winning, but by getting the most votes and/or seats, or at least outdoing the direst predictions on devil-you-know grounds; the fact that the three main parties remain within 5-10 points of each other hints at such a possibility.  (Not probability.  Possibility.)

The possibility that Charest *might* snatch yet another Sherbrooke victory from the jaws of certain defeat suggests as much.  (Not "will".  "Might".)

[adma]

...what happens if the PQ fail to hit 63 and the CAQ/PLQ combined also fail to hit 63? Could we be looking a total disaster?

Easy.  Quebec Solidaire can prop up the PQ minority.

[adma]

Well, it comes as close to the "Alison Redford surprise" situation for the Grits as could have been managed, all things considered.

[adma]

Doubt Bellemare was ever interested and he's way too mavericky (scarlet letter in the PLQ), plus endorsing Cardin in Sherbrooke nuked whatever possibility there was.

Come to think of it, there ought to be more mention out there of how Charest's personal loss may have had less to do w/Charest per se than w/the "heavy hitter" strength of Serge Cardin, particularly in the event of a PQ government.  Indeed, had the PQ fallen short of Lib seat numbers and Marois forced to resign, I could see Cardin as a strong candidate for her replacement...