2017 French Presidential Election

[Barnes]

Has UDI's (totally useless) support gone to another candidate or are they still cross that they didn't force Fillon out?

[Barnes]

There have been lots of defections to support Macron, but the party is backing Fillon again. Lol "centrists", I never understand why France is full of these joke parties that are basically just annexes of the bigger one - UDI for LR; PRG for the PS...

Well sycophants do as sychophants must!

[Barnes]

I was going to ask about the parties individually, but then thought who cares, what's the difference!

Btw, great to see you around, Hash.

[Barnes]

Which one is Borloo's faction and why hasn't kicked them up the arse for supporting Fillon?

Also, the mention of Lagarde and UDI remants reminded me of this abomination :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyLOy7l_jP4

Bless you for sharing.

[Barnes]

Another question for experts on French politics: Why doesn't Dupont-Aignan drop out and endorse Le Pen?  He and his party seem to align with her (except for him wanting a quicker Frexit).

Well it's too late to withdraw from the election officially. Other than that, the French far-right has many concerns, but electability is not one of them.

[Barnes]

Sorry I missed this one as I'm sure the level of inaudible shouting was taken to a whole new decibel level. 

[Barnes]

These are usually more amusing than anything else you can glean from them, but France24 has made an English-version Vote Compass for the election.

[Barnes]

Hamon: 74%
Arthaud: 74%
Poutou: 69%
Mélenchon: 66%
Macron: 65%
Cheminade: 56%
Dupont-Aignan: 53%
Fillon: 49%
Le Pen: 45%

It's a shame that Hamon is polling so dreadfully this year, as in a more normal election, I'd back him without a second thought.

[Barnes]

Seeing as there is (rightly so) no thread for the legislative elections yet, I just thought I'd post in here.

En Marche has announced its first candidates for the June election, not that it's particularly important. Even if Macron wins, I can't see EM getting more than 50 seats, at the most. If he loses, the whole thing obviously folds very quickly. 

[Barnes]

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously.   

Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in.

Exactly. And as most of the leadership (and probably Harmon himself) would prefer Macron over Melenchon, there would be no incentive to do that.

[Barnes]

Remember that the French far-left and right look at any attempt to further electability as a "betrayal of values," etc.

[Barnes]

According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

Not really. The electorate is (once again) thoroughly turned off by the major parties as I'd say as many who are supporting the alternatives are just abstaining. Of course, this could just be an effect of polling as well--begrudgingly going to vote but refusing to play any other part in the election.

[Barnes]

Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

By the way, 5 years ago, we expected as well a low turnout, in the end it was fine. I think turnout will go down, but 65% is really to low to be considered as a scenario.

I would think about 70, but who knows. I think a lot of people would rather say they're not interested.

[Barnes]

Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

By the way, 5 years ago, we expected as well a low turnout, in the end it was fine. I think turnout will go down, but 65% is really to low to be considered as a scenario.

I would think about 70, but who knows. I think a lot of people would rather say they're not interested.

Which would still be better than the US in about any year, but that's not much of a bar to set.

[Barnes]

Do remember in the first debate that Melenchon proposed a "Congress of Europe" to redraw national borders, a la Vienna, 1814. I'm not too sure certain Eastern European countries would jump on that bandwagon...

[Barnes]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

[Barnes]

Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood?

This is the french equivalent.

Exactly. A refusal to believe that the French themselves were capable of openly collaborating and coordinating with the Nazi regime and advancing their own goals through them.

Please don't try to defend her words. They speak clearly on their own.

(Sorry, had to keep fixing my iPhone's autocorrect.)

[Barnes]

Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood?

This is the french equivalent.

Exactly. A refusal to believe that the French themselves were capable of openly collaborating and coordinating with the Nazi regime and advance its own principles through them.

Please don't try to defend her words. They speak clearly on their own.

But she's not denying that Holocaust happened as u made it seem

I made it appear no such way. I just said it's Holocaust denial: attempting to minimize or obfuscate the role or responsibility of people or a group in collaborating and carrying out a component of the Holocaust.

She's attempting to retell a rather pathetic idea of Germany's "Zero Hour" that everything which happened before 1945 is an aberration and nothing is worth learning or even talking about from it.

[Barnes]

But anyway, we can go on about Panzergirl in another thread if we wish, I just thought I'd share the news.

[Barnes]

But I don't understand why LePen would throw her own supporters under the bus by implying that the French played no role in the Holocaust. The typical FN voter would have supported the Vichy government and would have proudly helped the Nazis round up Jews. Why doesn't LePen take pride in her movement's history as being pro Nazi? If you are in Le Pen's universe you probably think there was nothing wrong with the Holocaust

It's all part of "modernizing" the FN, mon amie.

[Barnes]

I mean, this isn't even close to the worst thing she's said this month, but I did wonder when we'd hear la papa grand peak through again.

[Barnes]

I can't think of any major polling error in France that would lead us to doubt the polling trend here, and to be clear, we're looking at a situation where four candidates are separated by four points, so any fluctuation should not be a surprise or shock.

Personally, I'd be very surprised if turnout went below 65% but I could see it in the low 70s definitely. Now who would be assisted by a higher poll, I don't really know.

[Barnes]

I just thought of the 2002 example when I finished posting.

That is true is a sense but the last polls before the first round had Jospin and Le Pen off by two points in either direction, which, as I said could easily happen hear. The other instances of Melenchon underperforming and Le Pen overperforming in 2012 are with the relatively same standard deviation.

My point being, if they top four (but in reality I'd say the top three) finish in a different order that shouldn't be surprising or unprecedented with small differences between tightly-bound contests. 

[Barnes]

Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?

Well the explanations vary, from Flawless Beautiful Macron to Fan Boy Macron, but my personal favorite (of my own twisted invention) remains Flanby's Baby.

[Barnes]

Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?

The status quo.