2017 French Presidential Election

[Kringla Heimsins]

As for the debate, I'm obviously heavily biased but I think Mélenchon did the best performance, like last time. Polls agree with me: as per a Elabe poll for BFMTV, 25% of watchers found him the most convincing, ahead of Macron (21%).

Arthaud was downright scary (she almost say "kill the rich").
Poutou made everyone laugh but I don't know if it will go further than that.
Hamon was sadly invisible.
Macron was... I don't know, what he says never makes any sense but it's feel-good bullsh**t.
Lassalle was peculiar. I want to note French is actually is third language, after Bearnese Gascon and Basque.
Fillon almost spoke with nobody. It was a monologue reminding people to be afraid.
Dupont-Aignan was forgettable.
Asselineau was giving a constitutional law lecture. He spent his time quoting constitution articles, european treaties clauses, and Chinese sayings.
Le Pen was like usual, trying to balance hard-right identitarian politics and left-wing economic populism.
Cheminade was interesting, I almost forgot his program is literally insane.

It was a fun night overall.

[MAINEiac4434]

For once, someone using "literally" on the Internet isn't exaggerating. LaRouchies are crackpots.

[Barnes]

Sorry I missed this one as I'm sure the level of inaudible shouting was taken to a whole new decibel level. 

[jaichind]

There seems to be a fair level of stability in the polls this last month.  If you look at OpinionWay polls over the last month  which pretty much polls every week day and look at the results grouped by Right (Le Pen+Fillon), Center (Marcon) and Left (Hamon+Melenchon) and throw out the very best day and very worse day for each bloc  we get

Right (ranges from 44-47)
Center (ranges from 24-25)
Left (ranges from 24-26)

If we do the same for Ifop polls over the last month we get

Right (ranges from 43-46)
Center (ranges from 25-26)
Left (ranges from 23-26)

Seems overall Ifop more Marcon friendly than OpinionWay.  Since it is likely that Marcon voters will likely to be less committed perhaps OpinionWay has a stronger likely voter filter ?

[Kringla Heimsins]

I'm not sure grouping Les Républicains and Front National together makes sense.

[ApatheticAustrian]

especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.

[Zinneke]

especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.

He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left.

Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS.

[Babeuf]

especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.

He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left.

Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS.

Is Marine likely to step aside in favor of her niece anytime soon though? I wasn't aware that was a possibility in the near future. 

[Zinneke]

especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.

He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left.

Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS.

Is Marine likely to step aside in favor of her niece anytime soon though? I wasn't aware that was a possibility in the near future.  

I think she is done after this election, yeah. Before the campaign started there was a lot of unrest between Fillipot and the hardliners like Maréchal-Le Pen.
Whether MLP's niece takes over will depend on the internal party rustlings. I don't think Fillipot and all the acolytes FN has attracted stay in a party that becomes more in the JMLP mould.

[mvd10]

So Marine's niece is a combination of Fillon's Thatcherism and social conservatism and FN's Euroscepticism? Basically what the FN used to be in the late 70s?

[Zinneke]

So Marine's niece is a combination of Fillon's Thatcherism and social conservatism and FN's Euroscepticism? Basically what the FN used to be in the late 70s?

Yup, had some company too.





Maréchal-Le Pen though also appeals to younger edgy, Jeunesse Identitaire types who try to push the boundaries, as well as this new wave of social reactionaries behind Manif Pour Tous. Still not enough to win an election but a much more dangerous force given the influence they could have in a fragmented system.

[Former President tack50]

Another question for experts on French politics: Why doesn't Dupont-Aignan drop out and endorse Le Pen?  He and his party seem to align with her (except for him wanting a quicker Frexit).

Well it's too late to withdraw from the election officially. Other than that, the French far-right has many concerns, but electability is not one of them.

To be fair, you could always go out and say "please don't vote for me, vote for her instead!", but with France's 2 round system it does not make that much sense, especially when Le Pen is almost guaranteed to go to the 2nd round

[Tirnam]

Polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Ifop
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 16% (+0.5)
Hamon: 9.5% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 59.5% (-1), Le Pen 40.5%

Elabe, after the debate
Macron: 23.5% (-2)
Le Pen: 23.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 19% (+1)
Mélenchon: 17% (+2)
Hamon: 9% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%

A 4 horses race?
The dynamic around Macron worries me a bit.

[Umengus]

Polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Ifop
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 16% (+0.5)
Hamon: 9.5% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 59.5% (-1), Le Pen 40.5%

Elabe, after the debate
Macron: 23.5% (-2)
Le Pen: 23.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 19% (+1)
Mélenchon: 17% (+2)
Hamon: 9% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%

A 4 horses race?
The dynamic around Macron worries me a bit.

To be honest I'm really surprised by the bad (non-)campaign of Macron, he is just lucky to have Fillon like his opponent and no other centrist candidates. 2 very bad campaigners for sure.  Melanchon has the momentum and can still gain on hamon voters. But I don't think that he will be qualified. Polls tend to overestimated him.

[Kringla Heimsins]

After this election, the party dynamics will be very interesting to watch.

If Hamon does less than 10%, the PS will very probably explode. The left wing can't forgive Manuel Valls' perjury and treason. The centrist wing will say Hamon was never a viable candidate anyway. I don't see a future for this party.

Same sh**t with Les Républicains. The centrist wing will be mad as hell about Fillon's scandals. The right wing will accuse them of betrayal because they tried to replace him. The party was convinced they deserved to win this year, their rage will be of epic proportions.

The ego struggle will continue in the FN. Philippot has hinted that he may not stay his entire career in the party. But Marion Maréchal-Le Pen want to stay out of politics for a while after the election, probably to get private sector experience. The evil-looking Nicolas Bay may take the lead of their right-wing anti-Philippot opposition, I don't know where this will head.

Mélenchon will also have to deal with the Communists, who constantly feel betrayed by La France Insoumise.

Of course, that is if Macron wins. If he doesn't, he is the one who will be in deep sh**t. He may just as well disappear entirely after blowing such a lead.



Also, I want to say:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

Le Figaro, while a very conservative paper, is usually a trustable source. Just don't read their opinion columnists.

[Barnes]

These are usually more amusing than anything else you can glean from them, but France24 has made an English-version Vote Compass for the election.

[MAINEiac4434]

These are usually more amusing than anything else you can glean from them, but France24 has made an English-version Vote Compass for the election.

I got Arthaud first (retch), Hamon second (cool), Poutou third, Macron and Cheminade tied for fourth, Melenchon fifth, Dupont-Aignan sixth, Fillon seventh and Le Pen (unsurprisingly) eighth.

[Boston Bread]

1. Hamon (68%)
2. Mélenchon (61%)
3. Arthaud (59%)
4. Cheminade (57%)
5. Poutou (56%)
6. Macron (53%)
7. Fillon (51%)
8. Dupont-Aignan (47%)
9. Le Pen (44%)

The candidate rankings look correct, but not as polarized as I expected. My position on the compass was about where Cheminade was. I was surprised how left-leaning the candidates were on economics, especially Macron who is usually described as economically centrist, or even centre-right.

[Hydera]

[Hash]

Hamon 72%
Arthaud 68%
Poutou 67%
FBM 65%
Mélenchon 60%
Cheminade 56%
NDA 53%
Panzergirl 48%
Fillon 46%

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Poutou80%
Hamon78%
Arthaud76%
Macron72%
Mélenchon66%
Cheminade60%
Fillon51%
Dupont-Aignan46%
Le Pen39

[mencken]

Fillon 52%
Dupont-Aignan 43%
Le Pen 41%
Macron 39%
Cheminade 31%

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, so this is basically the opposite of the Political Compass, where everyone is supposedly left-wing?

[nicholas.slaydon]

1. Hamon (82%)
2. Mélenchon (75%)
3. Arthaud (63%)
4. Poutou  (63%)
5. Cheminade (61%)
6. Macron (60%) LOL
7. Fillon (60%) LOL
8. Le Pen (60%) LOL
9. Dupont-Aignan (53%)

[Tirnam]

Hamon 68%
Macron 67%
Arthaud 66%
Mélenchon 64%
Poutou 63%
Cheminade 60%
Dupont-Aignan 57%
Fillon 55%
Le Pen 44%

Poll this morning Harris Interactive for France Télévisions
Around a 5,000 sample, 2,000 of them post debate

Macron: 25% (-1, last poll March 22)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Mélenchon: 17% (+3.5)
Hamon: 9% (-3.5)

Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%