Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[lfromnj]

So the Dems will probably be trying to take out Valadao and Hunter next cycle?

Also:

Hope she enjoyed orientation!

Congrats to Golden, Porter, and Cisneros (although he’s not called yet)!

Hunters a goner. Even if he survives the trial he has to watch out for Mimi walters and Issa carpet bagging to the current redoubt of the suburban cali GOP.

[morgieb]

So with Kim losing all new Republican congresspeople are white, and of them only Miller is not a male. Oh dear.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So glad Cisneros won!

[wbrocks67]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

[cvparty]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

andy kim

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

andy kim

Yeah, only Republican Kims fail. Democratic Kims succeed. let that be a lesson to all the Kims out there.

[Brittain33]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

andy kim

Yeah, only Republican Kims fail. Democratic Kims succeed. let that be a lesson to all the Kims out there.

They must learn that election is Kimpossible.

[lfromnj]

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It's hilarious how arrogant these Republicans in Clinton districts were, to actually think that they were re-elected because they were beloved. They were elected to be a check on President Clinton, and what they ended up getting was lockstep foot soldiers for President Trump who vote with him 99% of the time. So they got tossed out on their sorry asses. So enjoyable to watch. Even a "far left bad fit Elizabeth Warren protege" handed Mimi her ass, LMAO.

she voted 95% with Trump obviously she wasn't moderate enough to vote the proper 99% and which is why she lost.
Anyway yeah it was so obvious the idea in 2016 that the voters in her district probably didn't like Hillary Clinton that much but found her stable while Trump looked insane and crazy so they decided we can get Hillary clinton for president but the house will be republican. Trump as president made that floor fall. I still love all the pundits keeping all the CA seats at tossup and were about to move Ca 39th to Lean R because of a sh**tty poll that showed Trump with +0 approval.

Pete sessions wasn't a complete dumbass and he just trying to scare the democrats to make a Clinton +3 seat Lean R because muh unopposed incumbent 2016 + Romney Clintons will obviously vote for the republican with Trump as president. Mimi Walters is just a complete idiot who has no idea how to run a race however.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

andy kim

Yeah, only Republican Kims fail. Democratic Kims succeed. let that be a lesson to all the Kims out there.

imo Kim Jong-un is fiscally a Democratic Kim but socially a Republican Kim

[Xing]

You mean Strong Candidates™ Dino Rossi and Young Kim, both of whom had 10 point leads in some polls before the election, BOTH lost!? I'm absolutely SHOCKED I tell you.

Anyway, Porter beating Walters is enough very satisfying result. I wonder if the media will berate Republicans about how they're "losing touch" with suburban educated voters, and have to do a better job of empathizing with and understanding them... I'm joking, of course they'd never do that. Republicans are never "out of touch."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

andy kim

Yeah, only Republican Kims fail. Democratic Kims succeed. let that be a lesson to all the Kims out there.

imo Kim Jong-un is fiscally a Democratic Kim but socially a Republican Kim

hence why he gets along with a #populist like T***p

[IceSpear]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

[lfromnj]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

or that a democrat would lose in Minnesotas iron range without a scandal in a D+8 environment.

[Ogre Mage]

With the exception of the open seat in CA-39, all these losing California House Republicans voted for ACA repeal.  Screaming ME ME can go home and have recurring nightmares about Elizabeth Warren, lol.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

[Tintrlvr]

With the exception of the open seat in CA-39, all these losing California House Republicans voted for ACA repeal.  Screaming ME ME can go home and have recurring nightmares about Elizabeth Warren, lol.

Looks like Young Kim lose long time.

Don't make racist jokes here.

[Doimper]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

None of the professional pundits ever seem to talk about it, but it's interesting how a demographic can be pushed towards a political party for one reason (in this case, SoCal Republicans because Trump angst), but then pick up the rest of that political party's ideology in a flash.

Similarly, I doubt a majority of West Virginians looked kindly on tax cuts for billionaires before Rove/Trump won them over with culture war issues.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

None of the professional pundits ever seem to talk about it, but it's interesting how a demographic can be pushed towards a political party for one reason (in this case, SoCal Republicans because Trump angst), but then pick up the rest of that political party's ideology in a flash.

Similarly, I doubt a majority of West Virginians looked kindly on tax cuts for billionaires before Rove/Trump won them over with culture war issues.

It is because most voters don't really have firm positions on issues. The idea that issues matter to voters or that voters vote based upon policy matters is one of the greatest common misconceptions in politics.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

None of the professional pundits ever seem to talk about it, but it's interesting how a demographic can be pushed towards a political party for one reason (in this case, SoCal Republicans because Trump angst), but then pick up the rest of that political party's ideology in a flash.

Similarly, I doubt a majority of West Virginians looked kindly on tax cuts for billionaires before Rove/Trump won them over with culture war issues.

Joe Manchin eking out reelection because he voted for a SCOTUS nominee who spent his entire life at elite private East Coast schools and in positions of power and had a demonstrable contempt for organized labor and working class people is a story that is simultaneously hilarious, incredulous, and true.

[Ogre Mage]

With the exception of the open seat in CA-39, all these losing California House Republicans voted for ACA repeal.  Screaming ME ME can go home and have recurring nightmares about Elizabeth Warren, lol.

Looks like Young Kim lose long time.

Don't make racist jokes here.

He’s not that good-looking, either. He’s average. He also has serious gayface, not especially surprising for a young Republican.

[morgieb]

With the exception of the open seat in CA-39, all these losing California House Republicans voted for ACA repeal.  Screaming ME ME can go home and have recurring nightmares about Elizabeth Warren, lol.

Looks like Young Kim lose long time.

Don't make racist jokes here.

TBF I think Ogre Mage is actually Asian.

[Ogre Mage]

With the exception of the open seat in CA-39, all these losing California House Republicans voted for ACA repeal.  Screaming ME ME can go home and have recurring nightmares about Elizabeth Warren, lol.

Looks like Young Kim lose long time.

Don't make racist jokes here.

TBF I think Ogre Mage is actually Asian.

You are correct.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

None of the professional pundits ever seem to talk about it, but it's interesting how a demographic can be pushed towards a political party for one reason (in this case, SoCal Republicans because Trump angst), but then pick up the rest of that political party's ideology in a flash.

Similarly, I doubt a majority of West Virginians looked kindly on tax cuts for billionaires before Rove/Trump won them over with culture war issues.

It is because most voters don't really have firm positions on issues. The idea that issues matter to voters or that voters vote based upon policy matters is one of the greatest common misconceptions in politics.

This.

[NOVA Green]

UT-CD '04 Update- 11/15 Salt Lake County

So new Vote Dump from UT-'04: Salt Lake County updated from Yesterday:

11/13- 107,466 (D)--   89,645 (R)      + 17,821 D
11/14- 113,430 (D)---  95,963 (R)      + 17,467 D       + 354 R
11/15- 118,924 (D)----101,328 (R)     + 17,596 D       + 129 D

Now that we are getting closer to the endgame and votes are starting to really get counted here, we need to take a look at votes by places....

So I've spent a bit of time looking at precinct data for this election by City, and was hoping to post the Trump / Clinton / Other Pres numbers, but that would have taken a bit longer....

Here are the breakdowns by Date by City within Salt Lake County:



Apologies for not having tons of time to do a proper presentation, but it does start to tell us information about there the respective candidates need to close the deal, or minimize the bleeding within the largest "Vote Bank" of the District....

If I were a DEM, I would be extremely concerned about how many votes are still out in South Jordan, considering it represents 12.8% of the County Vote Share, is overwhelmingly Republican, and currently only has a 76.9% Turnout Rate....

Even minor increases in DEM vs REP vote share can easily add up to a few hundred votes in favor of Love (R).

If I were a DEM, I would start to look at the largest DEM vote bank within CD-04 (Millcreek) and say we're mostly tapped out there, with 11.2% of the Salt Lake County segment of CD-04 vote share with 82.1% Turnout (To Date).

If I were a DEM, I would also naturally be worried about smaller vote centers such as Bluffdale and Herriman, that collectively add up to almost 10% of the Salt Lake County portion of CD-04 that vote heavily 'Pub, and currently only have 71-72% of voter turnout (below CD-04 SLC averages).

If I were a PUB, I would definitely become closely involved in monitoring the numbers out of West Jordan, which represents ~16% of the CD-04 Salt Lake County Vote Share, and quite possibly a place where numbers will flip again once the last minute votes start to get counted.

If I were a PUB, I would definitely be concerned about the votes out there in Taylorsville and West Valley City....

Although Salt Lake City and South Salt Lake precincts are most likely maxed out, honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see potentially an additional +200-300 D lead from outstanding ballots in those places...

I'm actually really enjoying this particular election...

[wbrocks67]

It is so damn true though that we will not get basically any NYT articles about how the GOP mucked this up in the suburbs and how that came to be how they lost. Yet in 2016 we got 104824292 articles about the rural diners.