German Elections & Politics

[Terry the Fat Shark]

New Emnid poll:

CDU/CSU - 36% (+/-)
SPD - 29% (-2)
AfD - 9% (+/-)
Left - 9% (+/-)
Greens - 7% (+1)
FDP - 6% (+1)
Others - 4% (+/-)

[TheSaint250]

New Emnid poll:

CDU/CSU - 36% (+/-)
SPD - 29% (-2)
AfD - 9% (+/-)
Left - 9% (+/-)
Greens - 7% (+1)
FDP - 6% (+1)
Others - 4% (+/-)

Is The Left rising at the expense of SPD?

[ApatheticAustrian]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

[DavidB.]

It's always funny to see how far-right nationalists don't seem to back far-right nationalists in other parties. I understand why Trump wasn't backed by AfD/PVV voters (the Republican party itself is almost as toxic as Trump over here) but Le Pen isn't really much different from Wilders or the current AfD leadership.

Le Pen is really pretty different from Wilders, but I agree that AfD voters not willing to vote for Le Pen and vice versa is weird as hell.

[ApatheticAustrian]

to be fair, the afd is pushing a little but further to the right each yea right now, while the FN tries to do the opposite.

[Former President tack50]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

Considering the instability of polling for small parties and that there's usually a 2-3% margin of error, is there a chance of all minor parties falling below the 5% threshold and having a parliament with just CDU/CSU and SPD?

Alternatively, what about not just the FDP, but also the Greens falling below 5% (ie a parliament with only AfD, CDU/CSU, SPD and Linke. I guess in that case a grand coalition would be basically guaranteed, with a small chance of SPD+Linke if they add up which isn't likely at all)

[palandio]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

Considering the instability of polling for small parties and that there's usually a 2-3% margin of error, is there a chance of all minor parties falling below the 5% threshold and having a parliament with just CDU/CSU and SPD?

<0.2% chance imho. You cannot just add up a perceived instability and a supposed 2-3% MOE for four parties in the same direction.

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The chance of both FDP and Greens falling below 5% is clearly below 10% imho.

The imminent risk for the small parties to fall below 5% in September is vastly overstated imho. AfD is not in danger because their main issue has not completely faded yet. The Greens are not in danger because they really have a hard voter core that will save them. The Left has some strategical challenges ahead (Eastern base melting, Western voters unreliable), but currently they seem safe. Only the FDP is at risk because more than any other relevant party they rely on loan voters and function as a vote bank for disaffected centrist and right-wing voters.

[Sozialliberal]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

Considering the instability of polling for small parties and that there's usually a 2-3% margin of error, is there a chance of all minor parties falling below the 5% threshold and having a parliament with just CDU/CSU and SPD?

<0.2% chance imho. You cannot just add up a perceived instability and a supposed 2-3% MOE for four parties in the same direction.

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The chance of both FDP and Greens falling below 5% is clearly below 10% imho.

The imminent risk for the small parties to fall below 5% in September is vastly overstated imho. AfD is not in danger because their main issue has not completely faded yet. The Greens are not in danger because they really have a hard voter core that will save them. The Left has some strategical challenges ahead (Eastern base melting, Western voters unreliable), but currently they seem safe. Only the FDP is at risk because more than any other relevant party they rely on loan voters and function as a vote bank for disaffected centrist and right-wing voters.

I agree with what palandio said. We also have to remember that the FDP's failing to re-enter the Bundestag in 2013 didn't happen for no reason.

From 1998 to 2009, the FDP was in opposition. In those 11 years, Westerwelle called for a "lower, simpler and fairer tax system" countless times. Then, in the 2009 election, the FDP received the highest result in the party's 60-year history, and they finally entered government after being in opposition for so many years. However, they didn't deliver when they entered government. They lowered only the VAT for lodging establishments such as hotels. Controversially, they did that after receiving donations to the value of 1.1 million euros within one year, which came from a billionaire who owns 14 hotels in Germany. There are also other reasons, but I don't want to get off-topic.

Unless Die Linke and the Greens mess things up as the FDP did when they were in government, they should not be in danger of dropping out of the Bundestag.

[PetrSokol]

I sthere posbily of the government SPD-Linke- Grune-SSW? Are SSW ready to go with die Linke?

A new ZDF poll shows the CDU overtaking the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein (votes next Sunday):



Greens remain quite strong up there. Any reason for that ?

[Sozialliberal]

I sthere posbily of the government SPD-Linke- Grune-SSW? Are SSW ready to go with die Linke?

A new ZDF poll shows the CDU overtaking the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein (votes next Sunday):



Greens remain quite strong up there. Any reason for that ?

As far as I know, this specific coalition hasn't been discussed. Generally speaking, the more parties are involved, the more unstable a coalition is. So a three-party coalition is preferable to a four-party coalition.

The SSW top candidate said that he wants to continue the coalition with the SPD and the Greens, and that the SSW will go into opposition if this coalition doesn't have a majority.

[Beezer]

INSA
CDU/CSU: 34% (0)
SPD: 28.5% (-1.5)
Left: 10.5% (+1.5)
AfD: 9% (-1)
FDP: 7% (+0.5)
Greens: 6.5% (0)

Forsa:
CDU/CSU: 36% (0)
SPD: 28% (-2)
AfD: 8% (-1)
Greens: 8% (+1)
Left: 8% (0)
FDP: 6% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

ARD once again out with a NRW poll showing Kraft in trouble for the May 14 state election:



...

Also a new Bayern poll for the federal elections:



Chancellor vote:



Approval Ratings of ...

* state government
* Governor Seehofer (CSU)
* federal government
* Chancellor Merkel (CDU)

[rob in cal]

  That FDP number for NRW is pretty strong. Any reasons for its strength there? Also, looks like whether Die Linke makes it over the 5% threshold might have a big impact on the next government.

[ApatheticAustrian]

  That FDP number for NRW is pretty strong. Any reasons for its strength there?

fdp chief and resurrection artist Christian lindner's homebase is NRW and since the cdu is running a reaaallly lousy campaign (this poll company is an outlier showing a close race), fdp is getting quite some cdu-friendly votes too.

[Tender Branson]

Probably the last poll (ZDF) for the state elections in S-H on Sunday:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Northrhine-Westphalia state election, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 05/05
(changes in comparison to the last FGW poll from early February)

SPD 32% (-4)
CDU 32% (+-0)
FDP 12% (+4)
Greens 7.5% (+0.5)
Left 6% (+1)
AfD 6% (-3)

[Tender Branson]

Wow, if both ARD and ZDF show the Kraft/Schulz train derailing - then it must be real.

If the CDU wins both states, there's virtually no way the SPD can challenge Merkel in September.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SPD should probably have waited with nominating Schulz until August.   By September he'll have completely fizzled out.

[Tender Branson]

I'm also interested in the NRW voter transfers between 2012 and 2017.

I've recently seen a TV-report about NRW and the structural changes in the Ruhrgebiet, away from coal-mining and steel industry. A lot of former SPD-voters are now working low-paid 40-hour jobs, or have multiple low-paid jobs and expecting low penions at or below the poverty level. Many of them, especially in the bigger cities, will opt for the Left and the AfD this time.

[Tender Branson]

Schleswig-Holstein's state election is tomorrow.

Time for my prediction:

32.8% CDU (+2.0%)
27.6% SPD (-2.8%)
11.6% FDP (+3.4%)
11.3% Greens (-1.9%)
  6.0% AfD (+6.0%)
  4.8% Left (+2.5%)
  4.3% SSW (-0.3%)
  1.6% Others (-8.9%)

Turnout: 71.4% (+11.2%)

Gov. Albig (SPD) doesn't have the popularity that is necessary to keep the SPD competetive with the CDU, or to even match their 2012 results. I expect a lot of former SPD-voters to move to the FDP, Left and AfD.

[Tender Branson]

A recent picture capturing the mood in the "Schulz-train":

[palandio]

My prediction:

31.1% CDU (+0.3%)
30.0% SPD (-0.4%)
11.9% Greens (-1.3%)
11.2% FDP (+3.0%)
  6.2% AfD (+6.2%)
  3.8% SSW (-0.8%)
  3.2% Left (+0.9%)
  2.6% Others (-7.9%)

Turnout: 67.2% (+7.0%)

[Kingpoleon]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

Considering the instability of polling for small parties and that there's usually a 2-3% margin of error, is there a chance of all minor parties falling below the 5% threshold and having a parliament with just CDU/CSU and SPD?

Alternatively, what about not just the FDP, but also the Greens falling below 5% (ie a parliament with only AfD, CDU/CSU, SPD and Linke. I guess in that case a grand coalition would be basically guaranteed, with a small chance of SPD+Linke if they add up which isn't likely at all)

I would say it's more likely for FDP to get to their 2002 levels than it is for them to go below 5%.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open for the Schleswig-Holstein state election.

They close at 6pm local time.

[Beezer]

Turnout at 11 am: 21.6%  (2012: 17.7% / 2009 [along w/ federal election]: 25.9% / 2005: 17.2%)