CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Skill and Chance]

I mean which counties?

[MarkD]

There was a big vote dump for Mendocino County recently, adding around 13,000 to 14,000 new votes to the total, which puts it now at about 33,700 votes countywide. The new votes that were added were disproportionately "Yes," and it brought the "No" percentage down from 69.6% to 64.8%. Nearby Lake County still has a lot of unprocessed ballots -- more than half of potentially all the ballots that will ultimately be counted.

San Bernardino County still has 13,500 unprocessed ballots, and the "No" vote is only 3,000 ahead of the "Yes" vote; maybe there's still a chance the county will flip?

The county which currently has by far the highest number of unprocessed ballots is San Joaquin. With almost 48,000 unprocessed ballots to go, and the "No" vote is only 11,200 ahead of the "Yes" vote, perhaps that county might flip too, eventually.

No county currently matches the statewide result of 62.0% "No" to 38.0% "Yes," but Santa Barbara County comes closest to matching it, at 61.8% "No."

[Gass3268]

There was a big vote dump for Mendocino County recently, adding around 13,000 to 14,000 new votes to the total, which puts it now at about 33,700 votes countywide. The new votes that were added were disproportionately "Yes," and it brought the "No" percentage down from 69.6% to 64.8%. Nearby Lake County still has a lot of unprocessed ballots -- more than half of potentially all the ballots that will ultimately be counted.

San Bernardino County still has 13,500 unprocessed ballots, and the "No" vote is only 3,000 ahead of the "Yes" vote; maybe there's still a chance the county will flip?

The county which currently has by far the highest number of unprocessed ballots is San Joaquin. With almost 48,000 unprocessed ballots to go, and the "No" vote is only 14,200 ahead of the "Yes" vote, perhaps that county might flip too, eventually.

No county currently matches the statewide result of 62.0% "No" to 38.0% "Yes," but Santa Barbara County comes closest to matching it, at 61.8% "No."

Lake County refuses to process their remaining vote until like exactly the deadline, it's a weird quirk.

[Gass3268]

Looking at some of these finished results its crazy to see how close to the 2018 margin most of these counties are. Like Newsom only did -0.65% worse in Riverside County and -0.87% worse in Fresno County. So far his worst performance is -7.37% in Stanislaus County. Best over performance is Monterey at 3.80%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at some of these finished results its crazy to see how close to the 2018 margin most of these counties are. Like Newsom only did -0.65% worse in Riverside County and -0.87% worse in Fresno County. So far his worst performance is -7.37% in Stanislaus County. Best over performance is Monetary at 3.80%.

Is Monetary County the home of the San Francisco Mint?

[Sbane]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Almost like the newest iteration of "Dems in disarray" isn't panning out. 

Don't worry though, Virginia race is coming up soon and there could be rain in the forecast for Fairfax.

Looks like it is guaranteed that he is on track to underperform his 18' margins with the remaining ballots coming in.

Absolutely pathetic that he did worse than 2018 with so high turnout, more money and national attention to this race compared to last time.

Umm you guys were trying to recall him and it turns out to be literally the same margin as the previous election. Why the hell did you guys waste all this time and money on this? The Republican party should be forced to pay for this recall.

If you dumbasses actually ran a competent candidate who wasn't some anti-vaxxer, covid truther loony tunes you may have kept the margin within 20!

[Sbane]

On a related note, my growing frustration with the Registrar of Voters continues as I was all ready to break down the local results, but the County for whatever reason didn't upload their SOV with the final summary results.

The County must've heard my cries cause they uploaded the SOV!

Interestingly, No won the overall city vote 51 - 49, but the unincorporated area supported recall around 57 - 43. Just enough for the county as a whole to flip to Yes.

Cities largely voted as they did in 2018 & 2020. Banning, Corona, Hemet, La Quinta & Lake Elsinore were all Biden/Cox cities that supported recall. The only Biden/Cox city to vote against the recall was Palm Desert.



                                  Yes% - No%    N-Y margin% 
Palm Springs               20.1  -  79.9               +59.7
Coachella                    20.5   -  79.5               +59.0
Cathedral City             28.0   -  72.0               +44.0
Perris                          31.6   -  68.4               +36.9
Moreno Valley             35.6   -  64.4               +28.7
Desert Hot Springs      38.0  -  62.0               +24.1
Rancho Mirage            39.7   -  60.3               +20.7
Indio                           41.9   -  58.1               +16.2
Riverside                     45.6   -  54.4                 +8.8
Palm Desert                46.5   -  53.5                 +7.0
Jurupa Valley              47.4   -  52.6                 +5.1
San Jacinto                 48.8   -  51.2                 +2.3
Eastvale                      49.9   -  50.1                 +0.2
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    50.5  -  49.5                  -1.0
La Quinta                    51.4   -  48.6                  -2.9
Banning                      51.8   -  48.2                  -3.7
Hemet                         52.4   -  47.6                  -4.9
Corona                        52.6   -  47.4                  -5.2
Beaumont                   54.3   -  45.7                  -8.7
Lake Elsinore              54.7   -  45.3                  -9.4
Unincorporated Area  57.1   -  42.9                -14.2
Temecula                    59.1   -  40.9                -18.2
Menifee                       59.4   -  40.6                -18.8
Blythe                         59.8   -  40.2                -19.6
Indian Wells               59.9   -  40.1                -19.8
Murrieta                      62.1   -  37.9                -24.1
Wildomar                    65.6   -  34.4                -31.2
Calimesa                     67.2   -  32.8                -34.4
Norco                          74.0   -  26.0                -47.9
Canyon Lake               79.5   -  20.5                -58.9

CD-36                          45.1   - 54.9                 +9.9
CD-41                          42.5   - 57.5               +15.0
CD-42                          59.0   - 41.0                -18.0



2021 N-Y - 2018 D-R SWING
Indian Wells                D+16.1
Rancho Mirage             D+14.1
Palm Desert                   D+8.7
Palm Springs                 D+7.4
La Quinta                       D+7.1
Hemet                            D+6.5
Menifee                          D+4.7
Banning                         D+4.6
Cathedral City                D+4.2
Beaumont                      D+2.2
Temecula                       D+1.6
Calimesa                        D+1.5
Murrieta                         D+1.5
Unincorporated Area     D+1.0
Indio                              D+0.4
RIVERSIDE COUNTY      R+0.7
Moreno Valley                R+1.4
Corona                           R+1.6
Lake Elsinore                 R+1.8
Wildomar                       R+2.0
Desert Hot Springs        R+2.9
Riverside                       R+3.5
San Jacinto                   R+4.1
Norco                            R+5.2
Canyon Lake                 R+5.8
Eastvale                        R+7.1
Perris                            R+8.3
Jurupa Valley                R+8.3
Coachella                      R+9.5
Blythe                         R+13.7


CD-36                          D+3.5
CD-41                          R+3.8
CD-42                          R+0.4


2021 - 2018 TURNOUT (+ Percentage of 18+ year old Hispanics & 18+ year old Non-Hispanic Whites)
                                2021% - 2018%     DIFFERENCE%      HISPANIC%   WHITE%

Indian Wells                77.9  -      83.4                       -5.4                     5.4           89.1
Rancho Mirage             76.8  -     80.7                        -3.9                   11.2           79.5
Canyon Lake                72.4  -     72.0                       +0.5                   12.9           77.7
Palm Springs               71.1  -     76.3                        -5.3                   20.9           66.9
Calimesa                      67.9  -     71.0                        -3.1                   25.3           65.1
Palm Desert                 67.2  -     74.4                        -7.2                   22.0           68.2
Norco                           66.4  -     70.5                        -4.1                   33.4           51.7
La Quinta                     66.1  -     72.4                        -6.3                   29.4           61.5
Temecula                     62.9  -     68.4                        -5.5                   25.1           52.2
Murrieta                       61.9  -     66.6                        -4.8                   27.6           49.6
Menifee                        60.6  -     66.7                        -6.1                   34.0           47.6
Beaumont                    60.3  -     66.6                        -6.3                   40.4           42.7
Banning                       59.3  -     66.5                        -7.2                   40.4           42.7
Wildomar                     58.1   -    63.4                        -5.3                   37.3           47.0
Corona                         57.0   -    64.0                        -7.0                   43.3           34.3
Eastvale                       56.7   -    62.5                        -5.8                   35.4           20.5
Cathedral City              56.1   -    62.1                        -6.1                   54.4          33.9
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    55.7  -     62.5                       -6.8                    45.6          44.1
Unincorporated Area   55.2   -    64.5                        -9.3
Indio                            53.6   -    61.4                        -7.8                   64.3          28.6
Riverside                     53.3   -    60.6                         -7.3                   50.6          30.9
Lake Elsinore               52.4   -    59.6                        -7.2                    47.4          33.2
Hemet                          51.9   -    59.7                        -7.8                    40.4          42.4
Jurupa Valley               46.7   -    56.8                      -10.0                    66.9          21.1
Blythe                          46.1   -    58.9                      -12.8                    38.6           39.4
San Jacinto                  44.5   -    53.1                        -8.6                    57.4           26.1
Moreno Valley              43.6   -    51.4                       -7.9                     58.2           15.4
Desert Hot Springs      42.6  -     51.1                       -8.5                      56.0           30.0
Perris                          37.0   -    46.0                        -9.0                      73.7             9.2
Coachella                    34.1   -    43.8                        -9.7                      96.2             2.1

This is very interesting. Looks like the cities with a larger white population swung to Newsom and those with a larger Hispanic and Black population swung against him. And perhaps lower turnout among non-whites might explain some of that, which means this result is even worse for Republicans than it looks at first glance. They should perhaps quit with the covid truther nonsense and actually try and face reality.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This is very interesting. Looks like the cities with a larger white population swung to Newsom and those with a larger Hispanic and Black population swung against him. And perhaps lower turnout among non-whites might explain some of that, which means this result is even worse for Republicans than it looks at first glance. They should perhaps quit with the covid truther nonsense and actually try and face reality.

Yeah, I don't think it's a coincidence that the most Hispanic cities also saw some of the worst turnout drops + swings against Newsom. I mean, we knew going into EDay that Hispanic & youth turnout was as abysmal as they usually are in odd-year elections.

Once the SoCal counties finish counting or the Supplemental gets released, I'd love to make a bubble graph comparing city margins to ethnicity/turnout. I'm clamoring to do one for the IE but San Bernardino is counting their last 10k votes at a glacial pace.

[Utah Neolib]

Where did the new votes come from?

Stacey Abrams’s patented ballot printer

Thought it was Joe Biden’s ballot printer

[Progressive Pessimist]

Where did the new votes come from?

Stacey Abrams’s patented ballot printer

Thought it was Joe Biden’s ballot printer

No, no. It's George Soros'.

[Utah Neolib]

Where did the new votes come from?

Stacey Abrams’s patented ballot printer

Thought it was Joe Biden’s ballot printer

No, no. It's George Soros'.

There we go
Where’s my Sorosbucks anyway?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even by California standards, it's taking forever to count these last 100k ballots. There's been basically no progress all week.

[Non Swing Voter]

Even by California standards, it's taking forever to count these last 100k ballots. There's been basically no progress all week.

100k left.  So could the margin still go down to 20 as predicted?

[wbrocks67]

Even by California standards, it's taking forever to count these last 100k ballots. There's been basically no progress all week.

100k left.  So could the margin still go down to 20 as predicted?

No, it's at +24.0 right now, so in all likelihood, he's going to exactly replicate his 2018 margin (+23.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This is very interesting. Looks like the cities with a larger white population swung to Newsom and those with a larger Hispanic and Black population swung against him. And perhaps lower turnout among non-whites might explain some of that, which means this result is even worse for Republicans than it looks at first glance. They should perhaps quit with the covid truther nonsense and actually try and face reality.

Yeah, I don't think it's a coincidence that the most Hispanic cities also saw some of the worst turnout drops + swings against Newsom. I mean, we knew going into EDay that Hispanic & youth turnout was as abysmal as they usually are in odd-year elections.

Once the SoCal counties finish counting or the Supplemental gets released, I'd love to make a bubble graph comparing city margins to ethnicity/turnout. I'm clamoring to do one for the IE but San Bernardino is counting their last 10k votes at a glacial pace.

Truly, the never ending struggle in california.

[HalseyKelsea]

Why is it taking so long for Lake County to count their votes ?

Was there a wildfire ?

[Non Swing Voter]

Even by California standards, it's taking forever to count these last 100k ballots. There's been basically no progress all week.

100k left.  So could the margin still go down to 20 as predicted?

No, it's at +24.0 right now, so in all likelihood, he's going to exactly replicate his 2018 margin (+23.

But all the expert pundits who get paid to do this for a living said it would shrink to 20?

[Gass3268]

Why is it taking so long for Lake County to count their votes ?

Was there a wildfire ?

Nope, they choose to wait until the last possible day and then just release all their remaining ballot numbers at once.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

I think we've all seen enough. I'm calling it. Gavin Newsom is retained as the Governor of California. Tough call, I know, but someone's gotta do it.

[_.]

I think we've all seen enough. I'm calling it. Gavin Newsom is retained as the Governor of California. Tough call, I know, but someone's gotta do it.

Damn bro you sure about that? Real brave of you to say it so early in, but I wouldn't be so hasty!
There are thousands of votes left to count and you're still being so confident. Crazy to see!

Only time will tell whether you're right or wrong

[Pericles]

Are there some up to date 2018-2021 swing maps? Those would be interesting because it looks like the margins are exactly tge same so the trends would be very clear.

[E-Dawg]

Ugh this wait is painful, I just want to see which way San Bernardino voted!

[BigSerg]

San Bernardino oct 12

Yes: 285,650
No: 288,291

Dif: 2641

San Bernardino oct 13

Yes: 286,201
No: 288,679

Dif:2478


If 10000 votes still to be counted, it is likely that the county will change to Yes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

San Bernardino oct 12

Yes: 285,650
No: 288,291

Dif: 2641

San Bernardino oct 13

Yes: 286,201
No: 288,679

Dif:2478


If 10000 votes still to be counted, it is likely that the county will change to Yes.

Check your arithmetic.  

If there are 10,000 votes left and they break exactly the same way as the new additions (both assumptions may of course be off), then No will still win.  Details:

A total of 939 votes were added between the two samples: 551 Yes and 388 No, causing Yes to gain a net 163 votes.  If 10,000 more votes are added with the same ratio of Yes to No, then Yes will gain 5868 votes and No will gain 4132, a net gain of 1736 for Yes.  However, No currently leads by 2478, so that change would still leave Yes short by 742.

[BigSerg]

I guess it's over

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1448248965846212611?s=20