Washington state megathread

[RI]

^ They're not that interesting, and you will probably required to sign something saying you're a member of that party. Maybe you can go to both!

I don't mind. I already get a ton of spam email from both parties anyway only because I've emailed them about caucus results before.

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Don't worry; I'll troll them to the best of my ability. I can adopt a Santorum-supporting persona pretty easily.

[RI]

Must...not...make...Death Note reference.

[RI]

Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

Yes. I remain skeptical that gay marriage could actually pass if put to a vote except maybe in a highly Democratic year (2008?). There seems to usually be some sort of gay-related Bradley effect that occurs in polls, especially this far out from any potential vote.

[RI]

The state wants to/is going to investigate Aaron Reardon...... Any thoughts?

Already voted for him. I'm kinda suspicious that they waited until five days before the election to announce this. I'm not a big Roe fan though.

[RI]

Might as well...

I-1125: 53-47 No (might be wishful thinking, but Eyman's crap has been voted down a lot lately)
I-1163: 54-46 Yes ()
I-1183: 52-48 Yes (Total guess, but I have a feeling it will pass)

Snohomish County Executive: I think Rearden will win narrowly, but it would surprise me if Mike Hope pulled off the upset. He's fairly well-liked for a Republican around here, I have no idea how the potential investigation of Rearden affects things though I can't imagine it helping him, and, at least as of now, the rural and exurban areas are turning out more heavily than the Everett/Lynnwood area. I'll say 51-49 Rearden.

I'm sure I'll miss on some if these.

[RI]

I do not understand why areas are voting for and against the eyeman initiative... Adams county is more or less tied right now while Clark is almost 60% in favor. Also wtf Garfield?

Any theories?

Southwestern WA (Clark, Cowlitz, Skamania area) seems to be generally rather anti-tax/pro-Eyman relative to what you'd think on initatives. I have no idea about Garfield other than perhaps WSU influence?

[RI]

(hint hint, Realistic! though Louws won most precincts anyway, it looks like)

[RI]

Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.

I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.

The only way I see that happening is if the Republican nominee is Bachmann, or another rightwing candidate. Romney has a very high chance of winning Spokane county.

Winning Spokane and winning Spokane County are two very different things. Spokane usually votes for the Democrats (though not like Seattle does...more like Everett does) and has some very Democratic areas, but the suburbs (Spokane Valley and eastward), outskirts, and rural areas of the county vote Republican in larger numbers and usually drown it out. I think Cheney is the only other area in the county that leans Dem, but it's too small to really matter.

[RI]

Oh I know, I thought he was talking about Spokane county. What percentage did Spokane vote for Obama in 2008.

2008 Spokane County Breakdown:
Spokane City: 55.87%-40.98% Obama (D +13,904)
Cheney: 56.79%-39.93% Obama (D +560)
Millwood: 50.97%-44.73% Obama (D +58)

Unincorporated Spokane County: 57.30%-39.84% McCain (R +12,948)
Spokane Valley: 51.73%-44.81% McCain (R +2,798)
Liberty Lake: 59.26%-38.31% McCain (R +725)
Deer Park: 57.88%-38.46% McCain (R +297)
Medical Lake: 49.74%-46.33% McCain (R +66)
Airway Heights: 51.06%-45.49% McCain (R +58)
Rockford: 60.36%-37.84% McCain (R +50)
Fairfield: 54.72%-43.02% McCain (R +31)
Waverly: 72.41%-24.14% McCain (R +28)
Latah: 58.59%-32.32% McCain (R +26)
Spangle: 54.73%-39.19% McCain (R +23)

[RI]

That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

I haven't read up on that yet, maybe Alcon or realistic know something.  

From what I've heard, it has to do with the Otto Zehm case. Apparently a lot of people think Verner didn't handle the case well, and some think she even tried to cover up what the police did in killing him. The cop was just convicted about a week before the election, and the publicity over it didn't do Verner any favors. I'm not 100% sure of all the details, but that's what I've heard from the locals. I do also know that Spokane has a habit of not reelecting mayors. According to my election geek professor, they haven't reelected one since the 1970s.

[RI]

Anyone who doubts the power of The Stranger should look at the I-1183 results on Capitol Hill and keep in mind that I-1100 (I believe) passed some of those No >60% precincts.

U-district 60% yes on i-1183. Who would have guessed that.

Is there even a Costco in Seattle? I don't think I've ever seen one there.

[RI]

Yeah, I generally try to avoid that area...

[RI]

I just got robocalled by the Gingrich campaign. It was quite amusing.

[RI]

I just got robocalled by the Gingrich campaign. It was quite amusing.

Haha, what'd they have to say?

Obama's leading America to "radical, European socialism". Vote for me because I worked with Jack Kemp once. The rest of the field is great too, but they use talking points and slogans like "Yes We Can" too much...yada yada standard stuff.

Gingrich read the whole thing though.

[RI]

Wow...what a terrible map, though not surprising. I really don't like what they did to the 1st and 2nd districts. The 1st goes all the way from Lynden to Yarrow Point. WTF?

[RI]

It would be hilarious if BSB was a Washington poster.

God I hope not.

[RI]

If it passed, there will almost certainly be a referendum.

[RI]

I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.

[RI]

I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.

A lot of the media coverage also keeps calling the 10th LD "traditionally Republican."  I bet a lot of people locally aren't even aware that it's drifted Democratic and that R-71 passed there.

Do people from your corner of the 10th LD perceive the area as really conservative?  I know a lot of people from Mount Vernon, for instance, who are convinced that the area is really conservative, and that Oak Harbor must completely outvote South Whidbey.  I imagine Haugen is dealing with a lot of conservative activists who are no-compromise because they perceive the 10th LD as hostile to gay rights when it isn't.  Fair assumption?

The area is traditionally Republican, but not by a whole lot. It's mostly due to the relatively rural nature of the district (farmlands in the Stilliguamish Valley and Mount Vernon areas, forests and rednecks elsewhere) plus the military presence on Whidbey, but they don't seem radibly conservative or anything like that. Where I am seems more economically conservative than socially, but then again my neighborhood is a bit weathier than the district at large (near the Lake Goodwin area) though that isn't saying much.

The area does seem to be changing a bit. It seems like it's developing a lot more and becoming a bit more exurban in a strange way. Part of it is Camano Island, which has been trending toward the Democrats on social issues pretty quickly as it gets more affluent. The northern parts of the new district, like Mt. Vernon and Anacortes always struck me as working class Aberdeen-esque towns (with Hispanics in Mt. Vernon's case), with Burlington being exurban strip mall land. Skagit County did vote for R-71, but I'm not sure why (I haven't looked into precinct data or anything), so it must not be that populist of an area.

Truthfully, I don't have much reason to go up further north than Stanwood that often, so my impressions might be a bit outdated of that area. I certainly wouldn't call it very conservative; even by Western Washington standards it isn't as bad as Lewis County or anything like that.

[RI]

For once, it's actually not snowing over here in the east, while the westside is getting hammered.

[RI]

Still not snowing.

[RI]

Why hasn't anyone polled Washington on the Republican caucuses at all this cycle?

[RI]

Meanwhile in Spokane we have less than an inch on the ground.... Oh how the tables have turned.

Yep. It's not very exciting here.

[RI]

I read on the WA GOP's site that you have to caucus with the precinct that you're registered in. I'm registered back in Snohomish County, but I'll be in Spokane County during the caucus. Does anyone know if there is any way that I can caucus without going all the way back to the west side?

[RI]

I'm genuinely undecided on how I'll vote on this come referendum time. This is the first time I've genuinely felt apathetic about a state legalizing gay marriage.