Collar Counties Megathread

[jamestroll]

Reserved for discussion on how the Chicago Collar Counties will vote in the 2018 elections.

Will write more later but I must say at the early stage I think Lake flips to the Democrat, Will probably does. DuPage will be the most interesting.

I will say Rauner won't break 60% in DuPage. Heck he may not even get 50%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Rauner definitely wins McHenry, Kane, and Will Counties.
He probably wins DuPage County.
He probably loses Lake County.

[Young Conservative]

Rauner definitely wins McHenry, Kane, and Will Counties.
He probably wins DuPage County.
He probably loses Lake County.

In 2014, Will voted for Rauner by 14 points. Lake voted for Rauner by 18. Why the difference in ranking now?

Also, remember that Lake has always voted more Democratically than Will in Presidential elections.

[Mr. Illini]

Thank you for this thread! Hope is stays active through November.

I'd like to point out that Lake and DuPage both stunningly voted against Mark Kirk last November, most likely as a result of anti-Trump fever in those areas. That fever should be even stronger this November, meaning Rauner could well lose both.

Will County actually moved toward Trump last year (while still voting Clinton). Will is significantly less suburban and more blue collar than DuPage and Lake.

[RINO Tom]

Thank you for this thread! Hope is stays active through November.

I'd like to point out that Lake and DuPage both stunningly voted against Mark Kirk last November, most likely as a result of anti-Trump fever in those areas. That fever should be even stronger this November, meaning Rauner could well lose both.

Will County actually moved toward Trump last year (while still voting Clinton). Will is significantly less suburban and more blue collar than DuPage and Lake.

How is Will "more blue collar," exactly?  Not arguing, but it appears to have a very similar median household income to the other two.

Only wins McHenry. Right now I’m expecting something like IL-SEN 2016, and it will be hilarious to watch.

You don't exactly seem like a good fit to be a fan of the Illinois Democratic Party, so care to explain the bolded?  Preferrably with direct, non-ambiguous responses and zero insinuations.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I think that this race is going to play out like this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=2016&f=1&off=10

A narrow Democratic win.

I guess switch out Alexander and Jackson Counties for Lake County.

[RINO Tom]

You don't exactly seem like a good fit to be a fan of the Illinois Democratic Party, so care to explain the bolded?  Preferrably with direct, non-ambiguous responses and zero insinuations.

Putting principle before party, Tom. Principle before party. Voting against Rauner is the objectively right thing to do.

And why is that, exactly?

[Young Conservative]

You don't exactly seem like a good fit to be a fan of the Illinois Democratic Party, so care to explain the bolded?  Preferrably with direct, non-ambiguous responses and zero insinuations.

Putting principle before party, Tom. Principle before party. Voting against Rauner is the objectively right thing to do.

And why is that, exactly?

[Ye We Can]

He will lose Lake but win the others. Obviously a D victory.

[jamestroll]

Status on this now?

Lake and Will = Likely Pritzker.

That is all we know really at this point

[ElectionsGuy]

He probably loses all of them except McHenry. Looks like he's going down like Kirk.

[mvd10]

If we weigh Rauner 2014 with 25% and Trump 2016 with 75% Rauner roughly gets:
41.7% in Lake
53.8% in McHenry
46.2% in Kane
44.2% in DuPage
46.6% in Will

He'd get about 41% statewide if he use that formula for the entire state. If we weigh both results with 50% it'll look like this:

47% in Lake
57.8% in McHenry
50.9% in Kane
49.7% in DuPage
49.5% in Will

He'd get about 44% statewide if you use this model for the entire state.

In the end I guess the result in the collar counties will be somewhere inbetween depending by which margin Rauner loses. If Rauner somehow manages to win (unlikely) he'd probably win all collar counties though. But right now I'd say that McHenry votes for Rauner, Kane and Will will be very close and Lake and DuPage vote for Pritzer.

[Politician]

He loses Lake and Will, and wins McHenry, Kane, and DuPage. The collars are very different at the statewide level compared to the presidential level.

[jamestroll]

hahahaahahahahaahahahahahaha

Lake and Will Counties will vote Democratic for every statewide office on the ballot! Unheard of in the past.

DuPage is the huge question mark.