Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.
Not likely. New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years. The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature. Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.
And the midterm before 2010? Oh look at that, 74% for the Democrat.