Forum Dems in denial about 2012

[milhouse24]

McCain was in the middle of the post-convention bounce; he stole Obama's thunder by announcing his pick of Palin (I almost typed Bachmann there... yeesh) right after Obama's speech. It gave him a huge boost in most of the Bush '04 states; remember that he shot up to a double-digit lead in North Carolina right around that time, and everyone was suddenly convinced that it was out of reach for Obama. It was never a baseline of support for McCain, so comparing pre- and post-Lehman Brothers numbers isn't an accurate measure.

I mean if McCain's campaign had better prepped Palin, defended her against liberal attacks etc. And if McCain had reacted better the economic turmoil as well as had he ran a better campaign in general he would have stood a decent chance of winning.

However, would he we don't know?

Also Biden for Obama at the time was thought as one of the weaker running mates he could have chosen, due to Biden's abrasive personality, attitude, and notorious verbal diarrhea.

Biden was certainly risky, but he was Jesus compared to dumb Palin. 
Biden won over the Irish Catholics voters; while I think Palin's performance drove away women voters instead of getting women voters.

Certainly if it was just Obama versus McCain, it would have been much closer and also a greater dichotamy and direction of the country. 

In the end, the Obama ticket was stronger, and Biden was far more effective at campaigning than the other vp possibilities.

[exopolitician]

Denial? Meh:

Thats about where I see it now anyways.

[ottermax]

I'm scared out of my mind. The numbers are too weak for my taste, the situation in the economy is not faring well for the Democrats, and the Republicans seem to have convinced the majority of Americans that their reckless methods of governance are the correct way of doing things.

Yet for some reason, I feel like something will happen in the next year and a half that will dramatically alter the current course of events, and will completely shift the conversation around from what we are discussing today. The current issues seems to be in a sort of doldrums, no progress anywhere, but we are not slipping behind either. Sometime soon the balance will be tipped and something will change.

[Mr. Morden]

I think Obama will lose. I didn't think so until Friday. But I believe Romney would win against Obama.

Then it's a good thing for Obama that Palin is the GOP's "de facto nominee". 

[King]

prepped Palin, defended her against liberal attacks etc.

[Badger]

prepped Palin, defended her against liberal attacks etc.

Seriously. By doing what? Injecting 30 IQ points into her brain?

[King]

prepped Palin, defended her against liberal attacks etc.

Seriously. By doing what? Injecting 30 IQ points into her brain?

I don't think turning her in Michelle Bachmann would have helped much.

[Badger]

prepped Palin, defended her against liberal attacks etc.

Seriously. By doing what? Injecting 30 IQ points into her brain?

I don't think turning her in Michelle Bachmann would have helped much.

That would've involved directly injecting 30 IQ points and 10 pounds of raw crazy.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Bachmann is a smart woman compared to Palin, but they're both crazy as hell. The only difference is, Bachmann can articulate her insanity, while Palin just shouts platitudes.

[sentinel]

prepped Palin, defended her against liberal attacks etc.

Seriously. By doing what? Injecting 30 IQ points into her brain?

I don't think turning her in Michelle Bachmann would have helped much.

That would've involved directly injecting 30 IQ points and 10 pounds of raw crazy.

Raw crazy is quite pricey, I doubt the McCain campaign could have afforded it on public financing.


I went through the Wikipedia page for State-wide opinion polling, which may or may not be up to date but here is the picture with Obama v. Romney...

Based on the latest polls on there (which may not really be the latest)...

Obama: 246
Romney: 135
Toss Up - 20
Gray (No poll listed) - 137

Now lets add in the states which no one is going to dispute

Romney gets Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Indiana, Alaska Kentucky, Louisana, Arkansas...

Obama gets Delaware, DC, Illinois, New York, Connecticut...

Turned off the popular vote feature, but if we add these in...

Obama: 318
Romney: 200
Toss Up: 20

Of course, the race can and will tighten up, and many polls (Florida) are clearly within the margin of error. I still think his chances look pretty good. Plus once Obama wins, everyone will say he was unbeatable and if he loses everyone is going to say that anyone could have taken him out.

[opebo]

Thats about where I see it now anyways.

More like this for me..

[Mechaman]

sirnick, why do you assume that North Carolina, a state that barely went Obama in 2008, will be enough pro Democratic to be shaded red?  I mean this is the state that elected Jesse Helms to the US Senate for three decades for christ sake.

[sentinel]

sirnick, why do you assume that North Carolina, a state that barely went Obama in 2008, will be enough pro Democratic to be shaded red?  I mean this is the state that elected Jesse Helms to the US Senate for three decades for christ sake.

If you read what I wrote, I'm going by the polling numbers for the state that were aggregated on the Wikipedia page.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/June2011NCPresidentPoll.pdf

It's within the margin of error, like I said...

[Mechaman]

sirnick, why do you assume that North Carolina, a state that barely went Obama in 2008, will be enough pro Democratic to be shaded red?  I mean this is the state that elected Jesse Helms to the US Senate for three decades for christ sake.

If you read what I wrote, I'm going by the polling numbers for the state that were aggregated on the Wikipedia page.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/June2011NCPresidentPoll.pdf

It's within the margin of error, like I said...

I apologize for my low reading comprehension and inability to actually take the time to look at hyperlinks.
Meh, I guess that makes sense.

[NVGonzalez]

I am not in denial however I am trying to not get myself overconfident considering how suicidal Republicans can get.