Is Moran Vulnerable in 2016?

[KCDem]

Given the impeding statewide Democratic sweep in Kansas (even Huelskamp is in serious danger of losing ), who thinks that Jerry Moran could be in serious danger in two years? There may be another "independent" Overland Park businessman who decides to get in the race. Or maybe Kansans love the administration of Paul Davis so much that they decide to switch en-masse to the Democratic party. Who do you think would be the best candidate to spank Moran in '16?

[Vosem]

I guess someone further-right could sweep to victory as Americans embrace the Tea Party en masse. Maybe Milton Wolf?

[Maxwell]

Nah. Moran will learn the lessons of Pat Roberts.

[Flake]

He won't lose in 2016, congressional/statewide races are only close because of the Brownback/Roberts duo ruining Republican chances in Kansas.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No. Roberts would be fine if Taylor had never dropped out, although his margin of victory wouldn't be anything to brag about. Moran should be O.K., unless there's a 'Orman jr.' lurking somewhere.

[ElectionsGuy]

Moran is not Roberts, so at worst his situation is a 5 point difference or something.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

As much as I disagree with him, Jerry Moran actually cares about Kansas and his constituents, and actually lives in the state. A friend of mine interned for Moran in his DC office and to her surprise (!) he went home most weekends. He's in little to no danger of being primaried and absolutely no danger of losing the general.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The only question is whether or not Moran gets 70% or not again. I hope if Orman loses, he runs again maybe as a Democrat so Moran can put his political career in a shallow grave.

[Mehmentum]

He isn't really in danger, though anything is possible this far out.

Unless Brownback gets re-elected and screws things up, or Davis somehow ushers in a new era of wealth and prosperity the political environment in Kansas 2 years from now won't be nearly as favorable to the Democrats as it is this year.

[tmthforu94]

Not at all.

For one, there will be a Presidential race, and as wonderful as Clinton may be, she is still going to lose Kansas by double-digits.

Moran is very popular in the state - I don't know what polling has shown his numbers at, and while I'm sure they have been dragged down now due to Robert's and Brownback's unpopularity, he should have no problem bringing them back up in 2016. He is a good campaigner. I've ran into plenty of Democrats who have great respect for him - there just isn't the strong desire by the left to kick him out.

Democrats don't have a candidate who could beat him - they really didn't have someone to run against Roberts. They are entirely benefiting from the fact that Orman is running as an Independent - he would be down outside of the margin of error if he had a (D) next to his name.

Moran's biggest threat will be the primary, as Wolf is preparing to run again, but if Wolf couldn't take down Roberts, I highly doubt he could take down Moran.