Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[ObserverIE]

Well its safe to say that 'No' is going to win, the only question is by how much?

Pretty much.  This is very surprising to me.  I guess this really turned into a vote against a national unity government which lets ND and PASOK back in.  

Having Brussels sources announce that they considered a newly-elected government unacceptable and they wanted a more compliant replacement was always f***ing stupid and counter-productive. (Particularly given that this is a Brussels that puts up with Viktor Orban without complaint.)

But then, "stupid and counter-productive" describes so much of what has come from Brussels over the last seven years.

[ObserverIE]

A pretty dark day for Greece. I can't imagine most No voters, mislead by a government of student union politicians, have any idea of what's going to happen now. Probably not a bad day for Europe though - we can excise a tumour.

Seriously, grow up.

Come next year, will we here in Ireland be allowed to choose a government for ourselves, or will we have you throwing another tantrum and demanding a "technocratic government" if FG/Lab aren't returned?

[ObserverIE]

My sense is that Yes will be under-polled.  So with polls on Friday neck-to-neck, it should be a comfortable Yes victory.  It should be something like a 55/45 Yes win.

Looks like I was very very very wrong.  Oh well.  Can't win them all.

It's possible that the companies conducting the polls, and the media organisations commissioning them, ended up believing their own propaganda.

Or alternatively and less charitably, that the numbers were being cooked to fit a narrative.

[ObserverIE]

That will make the EU come up with best but realistic deal possible

I have my doubts. We might instead have been treated to a dose of grandstanding and maximalism from the EU side:



That's from the Murdoch-owned Times on June 25, quoted here. It's not only the "student union politicians" who were failing to behave like adults.

[ObserverIE]

My sense is that Yes will be under-polled.  So with polls on Friday neck-to-neck, it should be a comfortable Yes victory.  It should be something like a 55/45 Yes win.

Looks like I was very very very wrong.  Oh well.  Can't win them all.

It's possible that the companies conducting the polls, and the media organisations commissioning them, ended up believing their own propaganda.

Or alternatively and less charitably, that the numbers were being cooked to fit a narrative.

I doubt it is as sinister as that.  I think this referendum is hard to poll given the day-to-day shifts on how is the referendum is defined.  What went wrong for the Yes vote in my view was that the vote was seen as a vote for a national unity government which could bring back guys like ND and PASOK who got Greece into the mess in the first place.  Also the Yes vote did not turn out because the Yes voter did not really believe voting Yes will make things better.  The No voter turned out believing that a No vote could make their lives better.  The No crowd celebrate tonight next to empty ATM machine which will still be empty tomorrow so the No crowds beliefs will be proven incorrect but for today they believed and won.

I've said earlier that I think the EU's open desire to reinstall the same politicians who had presided over the earlier catastrophe as a "national unity" government - hell, the opposition were being brought over for meetings to Brussels - backfired spectacularly. It reminded me of nothing so much as the likes of Husak being in place in Moscow to be installed by the Soviets at the crushing of the Prague Spring.

That desire was obvious earlier in the week, but it didn't seem to affect the published polling numbers and there didn't seem to be any trend observable towards a No - and certainly not on the eventual scale. Either there were massive and systematic sampling errors going on, or there was something more "sinister" going on.

[ObserverIE]

What's up with the British and French?

A greater sense of emotional detachment, possibly. Or at least a more even balance between derogatory prejudices about Greeks and derogatory prejudices about Germans.