Have the democrats stopped bleeding among hispanic voters ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Until the national enviroment improved post dobbs, there was serious discourse about how the dems were bleeding hispanic voters to the republicans.

Have they managed to stop this percived bleeding due to a better national enviorment ?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

1. "Hispanic voters" is a very broad term

2. I don't think we can really answer for another 2 months (At the earliest)

[EastwoodS]

Y’all are still doomed. Sorry

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Y’all are still doomed. Sorry

? Aight?

Anyways I don’t think it ever was a “bleed”. There have always been some groups under the hispanic umbrella, mostly in RGV and Miami-Dade who are much more aligned with swing voters then given credit for. It’s just the usually do so in large uniform chunks.

For example; 2000 and 2004 Miami-Dade went for the democrat by just 52%. In 2008 it went up to 58% for Obama in 2008, 61% in 2012, to 64% in 2016 for Clinton.

In 2020 they went down to their Bush era level of 53%. For a county as large as Miami-Dade to fluctuate that significantly shows a very large amount of swing voters who are not reliable votes for either party, but crucial to winning Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

Y’all are still doomed. Sorry

? Aight?

Anyways I don’t think it ever was a “bleed”. There have always been some groups under the hispanic umbrella, mostly in RGV and Miami-Dade who are much more aligned with swing voters then given credit for. It’s just the usually do so in large uniform chunks.

For example; 2000 and 2004 Miami-Dade went for the democrat by just 52%. In 2008 it went up to 58% for Obama in 2008, 61% in 2012, to 64% in 2016 for Clinton.

In 2020 they went down to their Bush era level of 53%. For a county as large as Miami-Dade to fluctuate that significantly shows a very large amount of swing voters who are not reliable votes for either party, but crucial to winning Florida

Even FL-27 (the most educated of the cuban districts) has shifted left since Obama.

In the RGV, Dems have experienced the largest losses in rural counties while facing more modest losses in urban ones.

Even within these communities which are treated as monolithic, you still have a lot of the national underlying political shifts at play.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think another thing that is underlooked is a lot of Hispanic communities, particularly in growing urban areas in the west, swing pretty hard left in 2016 despite swinging right in 2020, allowing Biden to still improve over Obama. Some may argue Hispanic growth alone could accoutn for Biden's improvement, but some of these areas have been quite Hispanic monolithic for a long time.

Examples would be the CA Central Valley, much TX hispanic communities outside RGV, El Paso, Pheonix, Chula Vista, and yes, even FL-27

[Ferguson97]

Y’all are still doomed. Sorry

? Aight?

Anyways I don’t think it ever was a “bleed”. There have always been some groups under the hispanic umbrella, mostly in RGV and Miami-Dade who are much more aligned with swing voters then given credit for. It’s just the usually do so in large uniform chunks.

For example; 2000 and 2004 Miami-Dade went for the democrat by just 52%. In 2008 it went up to 58% for Obama in 2008, 61% in 2012, to 64% in 2016 for Clinton.

In 2020 they went down to their Bush era level of 53%. For a county as large as Miami-Dade to fluctuate that significantly shows a very large amount of swing voters who are not reliable votes for either party, but crucial to winning Florida

So did Cubans just really like Obama and HRC for some reason?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Y’all are still doomed. Sorry

? Aight?

Anyways I don’t think it ever was a “bleed”. There have always been some groups under the hispanic umbrella, mostly in RGV and Miami-Dade who are much more aligned with swing voters then given credit for. It’s just the usually do so in large uniform chunks.

For example; 2000 and 2004 Miami-Dade went for the democrat by just 52%. In 2008 it went up to 58% for Obama in 2008, 61% in 2012, to 64% in 2016 for Clinton.

In 2020 they went down to their Bush era level of 53%. For a county as large as Miami-Dade to fluctuate that significantly shows a very large amount of swing voters who are not reliable votes for either party, but crucial to winning Florida

So did Cubans just really like Obama and HRC for some reason?

Possibly? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don’t know what caused it.

[TDAS04]

As if Democrats were bleeding in the first place.  Biden still preformed considerably better among Hispanics than John Kerry.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

As if Democrats were bleeding in the first place.  Biden still preformed considerably better among Hispanics than John Kerry.

For all the talk about how hispanic voters (Again, very broad net) are stampeding towards the right, it's like folks forget that Trump did about as well with hispanics as McCain did and couldn't even touch Bush's 00/04 hispanic support.

Even in Miami-Dade, Bush had narrower margins both years than Trump did in 2020 (About a point narrower, but still)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Y’all are still doomed. Sorry

? Aight?

Anyways I don’t think it ever was a “bleed”. There have always been some groups under the hispanic umbrella, mostly in RGV and Miami-Dade who are much more aligned with swing voters then given credit for. It’s just the usually do so in large uniform chunks.

For example; 2000 and 2004 Miami-Dade went for the democrat by just 52%. In 2008 it went up to 58% for Obama in 2008, 61% in 2012, to 64% in 2016 for Clinton.

In 2020 they went down to their Bush era level of 53%. For a county as large as Miami-Dade to fluctuate that significantly shows a very large amount of swing voters who are not reliable votes for either party, but crucial to winning Florida

So did Cubans just really like Obama and HRC for some reason?

Possibly? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don’t know what caused it.

I think during that time Dems really controlled the immigration narrative and Republicans we’re at peak racists

[Kamala's side hoe]

No because you can’t bleed support from voters who weren’t even eligible/motivated to vote for you in previous cycles.

Also, people, please always keep in mind that the Latino share of the population has absolutely exploded (especially over the last 20 years) and still is - every year there will be new Latino voters who are engaging with the American political conversation for the first time. They don't think about politics along the traditional race/gender/age/class fault lines (the overwhelming majority of them weren't here for Jim Crow or the Civil Rights movement nor do they have parents/grandparents who were!) and their political motivations and cross-pressures are entirely different. They are writing their own rule book more and more every day!

[Ferguson97]

I think there's an argument to be made that Obama, for whatever reason, was a uniquely appealing candidate to Hispanics, and this is just a reversion to the Bush-era mean.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I think there's an argument to be made that Obama, for whatever reason, was a uniquely appealing candidate to Hispanics, and this is just a reversion to the Bush-era mean.

Having listened to the most recent 538 podcast episode featuring Carlos Odio from Equis Research, I have to push back on this. Dem weakness with "persuadable" Latino voters is partly due to flawed messaging on economic issues and social mobility- which is often aimed towards progressive activists and college-educated white voters in specific D-aligned industries, rather than lower-engagement voters from post-1965 immigrant waves.

A reversion to the W-era mean margins-wise (D +10) would not be good for Dems since the Latino share of the electorate has grown since 2004. There may not be enough potential net votes from other segments of the Dem base (urban college-educated whites, black voters, Asian voters, Muslims of all races, creative industry workers, service sector workers, etc.) to offset the loss of a net D raw vote advantage from Latino voters at large.

[It’s so Joever]

I always hate this oversimplification, but the answer in sum is no.
If we are going to talk about where bleeding will continue, RGV ofc, but also we should expect a shift in more dense communities in Bronx, LA, LV etc. HOWEVER, I do think Cubans in Miami could go either one of two ways, either they trend left (BOLD take I know) or they became what WOW was, depends on level of GOP investment.

[TDAS04]

I think there's an argument to be made that Obama, for whatever reason, was a uniquely appealing candidate to Hispanics, and this is just a reversion to the Bush-era mean.

Hillary Clinton was even a greater fit.  I think Obama’s performance especially in 2012 was assisted by Mitt Romney being uniquely bad on immigration.

[Zaybay]

We haven't even had the 2022 midterm yet, and this question is already being asked. Maybe wait until we have more than 1 data point before analyzing which direction the Hispanic vote is moving.

[MARGINS6729]

Y’all are still doomed. Sorry

? Aight?

Anyways I don’t think it ever was a “bleed”. There have always been some groups under the hispanic umbrella, mostly in RGV and Miami-Dade who are much more aligned with swing voters then given credit for. It’s just the usually do so in large uniform chunks.

For example; 2000 and 2004 Miami-Dade went for the democrat by just 52%. In 2008 it went up to 58% for Obama in 2008, 61% in 2012, to 64% in 2016 for Clinton.

In 2020 they went down to their Bush era level of 53%. For a county as large as Miami-Dade to fluctuate that significantly shows a very large amount of swing voters who are not reliable votes for either party, but crucial to winning Florida

So did Cubans just really like Obama and HRC for some reason?

The Clintons have a long history with Cuban voters dating back from Bill's first term which included codifying the embargo into law. Yes, Elián González was a blow but the Clinton years still hold  good memories for them. Hillary's sister-in law is Cuban American, lives in Miami, and keeps both her and Bill informed. She has also been a constant presence all over the world as Secretary of State which helps in such an international county but that applies more to non Cuban-hispanics who Hillary annihilated Trump with in Miami-Dade County.

Obama put up a great outreach effort with Cubans and all Hispanic groups in Florida in 2012 which led to him doing very well with them for a Democrat. But it's debatable on who did better with Cuban Americans. Hillary did better if you look at the precincts while Obama did better if you go by the exit polls. It's hard to say but people tend to drastically underestimate how many non Cuban Hispanics there are in Miami, how much they are growing, and also how bad the data is on these voters. It's more likely Hillary just destroyed Trump with this group which if combined is almost as large as Cubans are. And a lot of the 94-2016 wave of Cubans probably voted for her too. Trump also did very little Hispanic outreach in Florida in 2016, only doing a little bit at the end.

Republicans built out a strong Hispanic outreach plan after they lost the Hispanic vote in Florida in 2012, most importantly investing real money and real time in non Cuban Latinos which had been their main problem. This strategy took off after 2016 in particular as Republicans learned from the right wing former President of Colombia Alvaro Uribe's defeat of Colombia's peace agreement referendum that they could pummel Democrats as communists in a way they hadn't before. They tested out this strategy in 2018 and then turned up the volume afterwards once they saw it worked. It was assisted by Trump seizing the moment with the Venezuela crisis and the Squad becoming the image of the Democratic Party while the candidates for President all failed to mention anything about Latin America when they first came to Miami. Despite all their problems with Hispanic outreach, Democrats in the state could not really fight these headwinds, particularly with how bad most of the presidential candidates were in sucking up to Latinos with the exception of Bernie who did very well with them except in Florida obviously, lol. Biden's team and clearly himself were never that interested in Florida anyway while Trump was obsessed with it and Defund the Police plus Biden's lackluster outreach to Hispanics and no in person campaigning until the end all snowballed.

[MARGINS6729]

I think there's an argument to be made that Obama, for whatever reason, was a uniquely appealing candidate to Hispanics, and this is just a reversion to the Bush-era mean.

Having listened to the most recent 538 podcast episode featuring Carlos Odio from Equis Research, I have to push back on this. Dem weakness with "persuadable" Latino voters is partly due to flawed messaging on economic issues and social mobility- which is often aimed towards progressive activists and college-educated white voters in specific D-aligned industries, rather than lower-engagement voters from post-1965 immigrant waves.

A reversion to the W-era mean margins-wise (D +10) would not be good for Dems since the Latino share of the electorate has grown since 2004. There may not be enough potential net votes from other segments of the Dem base (urban college-educated whites, black voters, Asian voters, Muslims of all races, creative industry workers, service sector workers, etc.) to offset the loss of a net D raw vote advantage from Latino voters at large.

This is correct.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not.  I don't see any reason why the non-college Hispanic vote won't eventually end up in line with the WWC vote. 

[Frodo]

I have yet to see evidence of it:

GOP cuts into Democrats’ lead among Latino voters, new poll shows

Less than six weeks before November’s midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by more than 20 points among Latino voters, but that Democratic advantage has declined from previous election cycles, according to a new national NBC News/Telemundo poll of the Latino electorate.  

The poll also finds Latino voters are essentially divided on President Joe Biden, with 51% approving of his job performance and 45% disapproving.  

And it shows these voters largely siding with Democrats on issues like abortion, health care and addressing concerns of the Hispanic community. But it also has them backing Republicans on crime and the economy.

Less than half of Latinos see 'great deal of difference' between GOP and Democrats, Pew finds

Latinos see Republicans' and Democrats' different stances on gun violence and abortion. But the lines blur when it comes to distinguishing what the parties stand for overall, a Pew Research Center study has found.

Results released Thursday show that 36% of 3,029 Hispanics surveyed from Aug. 1 to Aug. 14 said there is a "fair" amount of difference between the parties and another 16% said there’s hardly any difference at all, for a total about 52%.

Under half — just 45% — said there is a “great deal of difference” between the parties, and that number is divided almost equally between those who are or lean Democrat and those who are or lean Republican.

The findings come with just six weeks to go before the Nov. 8 midterm elections. Republicans hope to attract more Hispanic votes than they did in 2020, while Democrats are trying to hold their majorities in Congress by keeping the GOP from chipping away more at its Latino vote share.

[Kamala's side hoe]

So did Cubans just really like Obama and HRC for some reason?

The Clintons have a long history with Cuban voters dating back from Bill's first term which included codifying the embargo into law. Yes, Elián González was a blow but the Clinton years still hold  good memories for them. Hillary's sister-in law is Cuban American, lives in Miami, and keeps both her and Bill informed. She has also been a constant presence all over the world as Secretary of State which helps in such an international county but that applies more to non Cuban-hispanics who Hillary annihilated Trump with in Miami-Dade County.

Obama put up a great outreach effort with Cubans and all Hispanic groups in Florida in 2012 which led to him doing very well with them for a Democrat. But it's debatable on who did better with Cuban Americans. Hillary did better if you look at the precincts while Obama did better if you go by the exit polls. It's hard to say but people tend to drastically underestimate how many non Cuban Hispanics there are in Miami, how much they are growing, and also how bad the data is on these voters. It's more likely Hillary just destroyed Trump with this group which if combined is almost as large as Cubans are. And a lot of the 94-2016 wave of Cubans probably voted for her too. Trump also did very little Hispanic outreach in Florida in 2016, only doing a little bit at the end.

Republicans built out a strong Hispanic outreach plan after they lost the Hispanic vote in Florida in 2012, most importantly investing real money and real time in non Cuban Latinos which had been their main problem. This strategy took off after 2016 in particular as Republicans learned from the right wing former President of Colombia Alvaro Uribe's defeat of Colombia's peace agreement referendum that they could pummel Democrats as communists in a way they hadn't before. They tested out this strategy in 2018 and then turned up the volume afterwards once they saw it worked. It was assisted by Trump seizing the moment with the Venezuela crisis and the Squad becoming the image of the Democratic Party while the candidates for President all failed to mention anything about Latin America when they first came to Miami. Despite all their problems with Hispanic outreach, Democrats in the state could not really fight these headwinds, particularly with how bad most of the presidential candidates were in sucking up to Latinos with the exception of Bernie who did very well with them except in Florida obviously, lol. Biden's team and clearly himself were never that interested in Florida anyway while Trump was obsessed with it and Defund the Police plus Biden's lackluster outreach to Hispanics and no in person campaigning until the end all snowballed.

This is why the OP needed to be more specific. What timeframe are we talking here? Seems likely for the 2022 cycle, but not anything beyond this year.

[Samof94]

As if Democrats were bleeding in the first place.  Biden still preformed considerably better among Hispanics than John Kerry.

Nobody had mentioned the Covid element in 2020. I just find that odd.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's pretty clear they haven't done so in RGV.  That is likely a long-term trend.  As for the rest of the country, it's really too early to say.  I don't think we'll really be able to give a good region-by-region answer to this until after the 2024 election (we should have enough data points by then).