Dealing with -2 Seats if all NY Congressional Democrats Win

[muon2]

Demographically, this was the likely scenario 3-4 years ago. Based on county changes at that time it looked like one seat would have to be removed from western NY and one from NYC. My guess is that would still be the case today, so one would ask which incumbents are most on the outs with the party.

[muon2]

I've looked at the upstate districts and can make all but one of them 55-57% for Obama. That might be the Dems best strategy for an upstate map, since trying to get them all probably puts too many at risk in a bad year. This map keeps every incumbent in a separate district, except for Owens who ends up with Tonko, though with a slight switch he could easily be placed in Murphy's district instead.

[muon2]

I'm not sure Louise Slaughter could win that NY-26, though. You could make it a little more Democratic by moving Elmira into NY-22 and then taking some of Orleans County into NY-24. Also, there are some very Democratic towns in Ontario and Livingston Counties (Geneseo, e.g.) that could be "liberated".

According to Vote Smart she lives in Fairport which is on the east side of Rochester. That puts her in the CD 23 I drew. That district is slightly more D than my CD 26.

I didn't try to micromanage individual precincts at this stage except to get population equality. Once my district was in the target range I let it go. Generally a shift of less than a percent would wash out after a couple of years do to normal population mobility.

[muon2]

I looked at the downstate portion of the map. In order to preserve the 3 LI black (CDs 6, 10, and 11) and 1 Hispanic (CD 12) seats it ate up one of the white districts, and the easiest one was to move was CD 9. Elsewhere I divided the Bronx to create 2 Hispanic (CDs 7, 16) and 1 black (CD 15). As with my upstate map I set every district to have at least a 55% vote for Obama. Other than the majority-minority districts, only CDs 8 and 14 exceed 56% for Obama.

[muon2]

Thanks for the maps Muon, great stuff.

Does CD9 stretch across 5 counties?

Yep, it uses heavily D areas in Westchester and Queens to offset R areas in Suffolk. The Bronx and Nassau are mostly just for connections. I'm not sure Weiner would like losing his district, and would now up against King since much of the 9th was added to the 3rd.

[muon2]

Ugh. What a monstrosity.

I know. I can't do much about the minority districts. By losing two districts, the remaining ones grow substantially. The 12th is already stretched out to be Hispanic-majority, and the increased population requirement makes it worse. The 3 LI black districts are just at 51% and there's not any way to make them more compact and keep the majority.

The other districts could be more compact and maintain natural communities of interest if I took away partisan considerations. But since, the hypothesis was a map to favor Dems, I set the 55% threshold from the 2008 election as an arbitrary goal.

[muon2]

Ugh. What a monstrosity.

I know. I can't do much about the minority districts. By losing two districts, the remaining ones grow substantially. The 12th is already stretched out to be Hispanic-majority, and the increased population requirement makes it worse. The 3 LI black districts are just at 51% and there's not any way to make them more compact and keep the majority.

The other districts could be more compact and maintain natural communities of interest if I took away partisan considerations. But since, the hypothesis was a map to favor Dems, I set the 55% threshold from the 2008 election as an arbitrary goal.

Against the Obama numbers, I would think the Obama number would need to be more like 58% to keep the districts out of reasonable reach of the GOP, at least in some elections. I mean, just assuming it is an even election, you are down to about 51.5% from 55%, and New York is trending GOP vis a vis the nation at the moment to boot (the delta function is higher). So, I would think the Dems would give the GOP a couple of seats, to get the numbers up in the rest of the seats. It is not at all clear the Dems will hold the NY state senate in any event, so this exercise is highly subject to mootness.

Though 55% is arbitrary, it represents the 5% boost in statewide numbers for Obama compared to Kerry. Since Kerry was a recent low mark in NY, it's not a bad threshold. I agree that it isn't a guarantee of a win.

To get to a 58% threshold probably means creating an extra upstate and LI district that lean R. That would make three statewide. Of course as you note, a split legislature negates the ability of the Dems to completely control the map.

[muon2]

muon2, I love your maps and the work you put into them. What I'm struggling with is the idea that New York would never do cross-multiple-county fajita strips like that, even if it would be necessary to have a certain minimum Dem performance in districts covering all of Long Island.

I think there's nothing to stop it in NY, and partisan strip districts are an existing practice there. Just look at NY 28 in upstate, it's a 4-county strip to pack Dems.

[muon2]

Thanks for the maps Muon, great stuff.

Does CD9 stretch across 5 counties?

Yep, it uses heavily D areas in Westchester and Queens to offset R areas in Suffolk. The Bronx and Nassau are mostly just for connections. I'm not sure Weiner would like losing his district, and would now up against King since much of the 9th was added to the 3rd.

None of the 9th covers that are.  The portion of Queens that you have in the 9th on that map is what is in the current 5h, not the 9th. 

Actually I ended up with a piece of the current CD 9 in my 9. It's the area north of the
LIE in the current district. My real need was to eliminate one district to preserve the majority minority districts. CD 9 was the easiest to split, though other configurations were possible.

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The base would probably matter in this case. As I've drawn them CDs 2 and 3 are very similar demographically. Both are 13% black and 12% Hispanic. CD 2 would have substantially better voter turnout though.

[muon2]

As far as King, not sure if he lives in the 2nd or 3rd (you have Seaford split between the 2nd. and 3rd and I'm not sure south in Seaford he lived), but with that map he likely runs in the 2nd not the 3rd.  Most of Massapequa, Seaford, Wantagh, all of Bethpage, Plainedge, Levittown, etc are in the 2nd on that map, and thats where is main base is.

The base would probably matter in this case. As I've drawn them CDs 2 and 3 are very similar demographically. Both are 13% black and 12% Hispanic. CD 2 would have substantially better voter turnout though.

Actually thinking about it a bit more, Ling would probably run in NY-3.  His base is stronger in NY-2, but in NY-3 he wouldn't be facing a n Incumbent Democrat.  In NY-2 he faces Steve Israel, which he would not win.  I think Ackerman would actually be the one to run in NY-9.  Aside from the Bronx and Westchester the district isn't that much different from NY-5 in the 90's. 

 I would put Weiner in NY-5.  Takes in a little more of  his current district, and is also very close to his home (or perhaps even covering his home).   Hard to tell where, McCarthy's home is, she lives in Mineola, which seems to be one of the border areas between the 4th and 5th.  She could run in either one, but the 4th probably takes in more of her current district, so she likely runs there.  If she would rather run in the 5th, it would be just as easy to have Weiner to run in the 4th, and again the 4th is much closer to Weiner's home than the 9th (in fact I think Forest Hills is in that narrow strip you have the 4th in ueens) if not its very close to it.

Don't forget about Lowey. She lives in the 9th as I drew it. The problem downstate is that with one district removed, either two Dems are in the same district, or one takes on King. Weiner lives in Queens, but was born in Brooklyn, and his district is split between those areas, so I don't know which is the stronger base.