Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[fldemfunds]

Scott could go to the supreme court alleging that the prolongation of the uncertainty could cause social division and that there is no evidence of a massive error in favor of Nelson

That's not how any of it works at any level.

[fldemfunds]

Not to get too off topic, but virtually every bizarre news story comes from Florida. There is something in the water down there, and I don’t mean the red tide.

It's a combination of meth and bath salts.

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704

Here's a link to one of the ballots that are being scrutinized because of the placement of the senate race.

Given how concentrated the problem seems to be, it seems more probable that it's a machine issue than a design issue.

[fldemfunds]

Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704/photo/1

Yes, we do.

[fldemfunds]

Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.

There's almost no way that the ballot design could be so uniquely terrible to explain such a vast difference not seen in any other county/district combo.

[fldemfunds]

^Additionally, the Senate race is located in the same position as that image. Whether DWS or another race is in the congressional spot doesn't change the layout itself.

[fldemfunds]

What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward?

That will be examined during hand recount

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/paulmitche11/status/1060714915759980544

[fldemfunds]

https://mobile.twitter.com/harrisalexc/status/1060713390660837378

Fl lead down another 2k. So 13k with provisionals and military still.

[fldemfunds]

https://mobile.twitter.com/harrisalexc/status/1060713390660837378

Fl lead down another 2k. So 13k with provisionals and military still.

yeah its over
Say hello to Senator Rick Scott.

That is premature. Hand counts are wild. There's that 23k pile votes in an 85% dem area that is basically a mystery.

[fldemfunds]

Is Scott still favoured to win?

I’d say it’s 95% Scott wins.

They may be out of votes by now.

It's 50/50 at this point given what we know. The trajectory isn't favorable to Scott.

[fldemfunds]

I highly doubt the undervote/provisional ballots are alone enough to pull Nelson ahead.

But people keep insisting that the regular vote is completed.  People have been suggesting that for the last two days, and yet vote from Broward keeps coming in.  Is there any reason to believe they have actually completed counting their regular early and VBM ballots (or at least completed submitting them to the state)?

This FL Department of Elections website suggests they haven't:
floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus

That site shows the Broward early and VBM count as still incomplete.  And the website IS being continuously update, because they keep adding to the count of counties that have completed their provisional ballots.

I don't know why anyone would be confident that we have any idea how many votes are still outstanding.

Exactly. They haven't done VBM or provisionals yet. As Dan Smith (FL politico) noted, there are 20k overseas ballots to count as well (and another 20k yet to be received, some of which will come in before the deadline 10 days after the election date). It isn't JUST the 23-25k undervote issue. Nelson's going to be within 5,000 or so before we event get to those.

Down 15,000 now with another 2,000 not transmitted (down 13,000), an undetermined amount of VBMs in Broward, another 20,000 overseas ballots (registration breakdown on Dan Smith's twitter feed), another 20,000 or so unreceived ballots (not all will be received, but the reg breakdown favors dems here as well), the 25,000 undervotes, AND the general craziness of handcounting that tends to favor democrats (because miscounts distributed evenly across all counties leads to more votes being correctly documented in bigger counties).

[fldemfunds]

The cognitive dissonance that must be overcome in order to claim that voter fraud is rampant in one breath and that we should stop counting and verifying ballots in another is enormous.

[fldemfunds]

Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE.

Brooks Brothers Riot 2

https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters

[fldemfunds]

Better updates on the situation above here: https://twitter.com/harrisalexc

As much as Republican elected officials are to blame, the media's hard-on for calling races quickly is also to blame. It creates the notion that the race is over (and the media doesn't deal with any of the fallout from that).

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060966178846322688

Dems, assemble and block votes at all the R locations! Watch republican heads explode!

[fldemfunds]

Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE.

Brooks Brothers Riot 2

https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters

Not blocking.  Protesting.

They literally used rental trucks to block the entrances.

[fldemfunds]

So Cochise County dropped 4021 votes. It was McSally +11. They should be comepletly done now.

Mohave county dropped about 2000 votes. Was a McSally +39 batch. They probably have about 6000 votes left to count.

I'm getting all this info from @DrRyanLove on twitter f.y.i.

I don't see this on the twitter feed, can you post a link to the source?

[fldemfunds]

BTW Golden's ahead now in ME-02. Big potential ramifications if this is more 1st round votes rather then reapportioning the minor candidates, because it means Poliquin's potential lawsuit won't get off the ground.

Where do you see this?

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062370498129092608

In the unlikely event Poliquin prevails, this would open the door to doing away with Georgia's runoff, at least for federal elections.

He picked a stupid argument. Should have went with you can't do federal election law via referendum. Would have fallen into Roberts wheelhouse.

This is probably one of the only arguments available that would not border on the attorney being sanctioned for bringing frivolous suits. It has been understood that states can administer their elections how they see fit so long as voters are not disenfranchised or discriminated against.