IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[KingSweden]

If Donnelly pulls off a win, I find it hard to believe the GOP picks up any Senate seat in November.

His seat is a pretty good bellwether for the Senate elections.

Yes, and since Indiana polls close at 6 pm, a strong showing by either side would give us an early clue as to how things are likely to go nationally.

Indeed. IN-Sen and KY-6 will be good early indicators.

[IceSpear]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-donnelly-in-position-to-win-in-indiana

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Donelley will win in 2018 and Braun is overrated. Nobody cares about candidate quality as long as Trump is president

Not like they cared about candidate quality before Trump was president either. Proof: Trump is now president.

[junior chįmp]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-donnelly-in-position-to-win-in-indiana

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Donelley will win in 2018 and Braun is overrated. Nobody cares about candidate quality as long as Trump is president

Not like they cared about candidate quality before Trump was president either. Proof: Trump is now president.

Candidate quality is overrated. Clownback won re-election in 2014 with a 25% approval rating against the strongest Dem in the state. Hillary lost against a bozo like Trump despite Obama leaving office with a 60% approval rating.

I get under that Obama...Dems are used to losing because all the elections from 2010-2016 were a disaster but now the tables have turned and its the GOP's job to defend seats that should of been easy pick-ups....they are going to get the same treatment Dems got.

[Blackacre]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

[IceSpear]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

[Blackacre]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

You might be right, but we should still keep in mind that, no matter his motives, Limo having concerns about the one IN-03 poll is a good take, and healthy caution is always warranted.  He's not some sinister dude named Andrew, he's a 15 year old kid named redacted who's trying to make sense of an election environment that hasn't happened since he was five.

If he jumps on an indicator as unreliable as this one IN-03 poll for a different race that has different implications, we should just throw his arguments regarding this IN-03 poll back at him.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

You might be right, but we should still keep in mind that, no matter his motives, Limo having concerns about the one IN-03 poll is a good take, and healthy caution is always warranted.  He's not some sinister dude named Andrew, he's a 15 year old kid named redacted who's trying to make sense of an election environment that hasn't happened since he was five.

If he jumps on an indicator as unreliable as this one IN-03 poll for a different race that has different implications, we should just throw his arguments regarding this IN-03 poll back at him.

15? I could of sworn Limo has said he’s in college

[Blackacre]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

You might be right, but we should still keep in mind that, no matter his motives, Limo having concerns about the one IN-03 poll is a good take, and healthy caution is always warranted.  He's not some sinister dude named Andrew, he's a 15 year old kid named redacted who's trying to make sense of an election environment that hasn't happened since he was five.

If he jumps on an indicator as unreliable as this one IN-03 poll for a different race that has different implications, we should just throw his arguments regarding this IN-03 poll back at him.

15? I could of sworn Limo has said he’s in college

Nah, he's in high school.

Back to the topic at hand, Id REALLY like another public poll to take a swing at this race. Maybe Reuters or PPP or WaPo. It's annoying that we're only working with one poll and it's a Gravis.

[ON Progressive]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

You might be right, but we should still keep in mind that, no matter his motives, Limo having concerns about the one IN-03 poll is a good take, and healthy caution is always warranted.  He's not some sinister dude named Andrew, he's a 15 year old kid named redacted who's trying to make sense of an election environment that hasn't happened since he was five.

If he jumps on an indicator as unreliable as this one IN-03 poll for a different race that has different implications, we should just throw his arguments regarding this IN-03 poll back at him.

His age is not an excuse here. I don't remember a Dem favorable midterm in my lifetime myself, and I'm not going around concern trolling like he does.

[GMantis]

The Indiana election division finally got around to publishing the final election results of the primary:



Seems that Braun won all districts expect Messer's, likely including Rokita's district.

[GMantis]

The Indiana election division finally got around to publishing the final election results of the primary:

Seems that Braun won all districts expect Messer's, likely including Rokita's district.

Where did they publish them?

Here.

[libertpaulian]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

[Hoosier_Nick]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

[libertpaulian]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

[UWS]

I Like Mike

[Pyro]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

[new_patomic]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conor Lamb showed us exactly how you can be a fiery populist and still win in right-wing areas. Of course it's a different style than AOC's, but the substance isn't that far.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

Fair point.

[IceSpear]

Irrelevant anecdote, but my friend from Indiana (Hamilton County) was a Romney/Donnelly/Gregg voter in 2012 and didn't vote at all in 2016. She said she's hearing a lot of ads attacking Donnelly for voting against "middle class tax cuts" on the radio. She said she'll be voting for Donnelly and reminding all her friends to vote as well. She's very anti-Trump.

Very caricaturish indeed.

[new_patomic]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

Fair point.

I mean, this being Indiana he obviously can't tact that left. But Donnelly just comes off as so... bland.

I don't want to judge him on his campaign website, but if 'common sense' became a platform then this would be it. It's all about bipartisanship and not stepping on any toes. He talks about education, yet can't even include a line about free community college. Talks about jobs and the economy, and the word 'wage' isn't mentioned once. His healthcare page is all about how he opposed efforts to rollback coverage (great) but also likes to work with Republicans, and not much else. It's all very middle of the road status-quo stuff.

Claire McCaskill's website at least talks about consumer protections and women's well-being. Tester's isn't that great, but he knows how to play locally by including stuff about public lands, and also ties in his commitment to clean ethics with his want to get "dark money out of politics" and overturn Citizens United. They at least seem to be able to make a pitch to the base here and there on progressive issues, to make Democrats want to support them. While Donnelly's strategy seems to amount to 'I'm inoffensive and am not a Republican.'

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

Fair point.

I mean, this being Indiana he obviously can't tact that left. But Donnelly just comes off as so... bland.

I don't want to judge him on his campaign website, but if 'common sense' became a platform then this would be it. It's all about bipartisanship and not stepping on any toes. He talks about education, yet can't even include a line about free community college. Talks about jobs and the economy, and the word 'wage' isn't mentioned once. His healthcare page is all about how he opposed efforts to rollback coverage (great) but also likes to work with Republicans, and not much else. It's all very middle of the road stuff status-quo stuff.

Claire McCaskill's website at least talks about consumer protections and women's well-being. Tester's isn't that great, but he knows how to play locally by including stuff about public lands, and also ties in his commitment to clean ethics with his want to get "dark money out of politics" and overturn Citizens United. They at least put something there to stand out from the crowd, to make some appeal to the base, while Donnelly's only play on progressive issues seems to be "you should be glad I'm not a Republican."

Is there really a left wing base in Indiana?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Besides monroe ofc

[new_patomic]

Besides monroe ofc

You've got a good amount of Democrats in Indianapolis (Marion County) and in the northwest of the state in places like Gary. Doesn't stop Democrats from losing Indiana by 10+ points in an average year but they've got more of a floor there than, say, North Dakota or West Virginia.

It's enough at least that ignoring them is risky. He needs a good amount of crossover votes, but also needs strong numbers out of the few Democratic areas of the state.