IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[lfromnj]

The Indiana Democratic Party seems to be giving the Florida Democratic Party a run for its money in terms of ineffectiveness.

John Zody needs to be fired like yesterday.

And Donnelly was a fool for hiring Peter Hanscom as campaign manager.  No one should hire him for anything again.  

I canvassed for Democrats in Indianapolis. They are a hot mess.

I compared the 2012 results to this year's.  Turnout in Lake and Marion was abysmal, and Donnelly lost ground in many places he won six years ago.  Looking at the numbers in St. Joseph County, they were awful for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing his old congressional district (both the current gerrymandered one and the one that he served before the Senate).

"I'm voting for the local Democrats, but I'm really not sure about Donnelly," was a common refrain I heard, when not getting the door slammed in my face by the Former Democrats of Speedway.

Ouch.  Was Kavanaugh a factor, or was it the onslaught of "I'm not like those Crazy Democrats" commercials?

Donnely really should have seen the writing on the wall and tried to win hamilton county instead of those rurals. That would have been the only way to win. Instead Donnely probably turned those voters off with immigration rhetoric.

[IceSpear]

The Indiana Democratic Party seems to be giving the Florida Democratic Party a run for its money in terms of ineffectiveness.

John Zody needs to be fired like yesterday.

And Donnelly was a fool for hiring Peter Hanscom as campaign manager.  No one should hire him for anything again.  

I canvassed for Democrats in Indianapolis. They are a hot mess.

I compared the 2012 results to this year's.  Turnout in Lake and Marion was abysmal, and Donnelly lost ground in many places he won six years ago.  Looking at the numbers in St. Joseph County, they were awful for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing his old congressional district (both the current gerrymandered one and the one that he served before the Senate).

"I'm voting for the local Democrats, but I'm really not sure about Donnelly," was a common refrain I heard, when not getting the door slammed in my face by the Former Democrats of Speedway.

Ouch.  Was Kavanaugh a factor, or was it the onslaught of "I'm not like those Crazy Democrats" commercials?

Donnely really should have seen the writing on the wall and tried to win hamilton county instead of those rurals. That would have been the only way to win. Instead Donnely probably turned those voters off with immigration rhetoric.

Yeah, I agree. It's telling that Donnelly ended up doing worse than McCaskill. It was a big mistake for him to pander to Trumpists rather than focus on turning out his base. With that said, he was probably doomed regardless.

[Xing]

Considering that Donnelly won 4 out of 5 Obama/Trump counties (I'm assuming he won Porter, it's not showing up), and just barely lost the 5th one, I don't think we can conclude that Obama/Trump voters are "never coming back." Or maybe you should ask Senators Vukmir, James, Renacci, and Barletta, or third term Governor Walker about how much Obama/Trump voters helped them. Clearly some can be won back, and Donnelly lost not because of Obama/Trump voters, but because Democrats aren't winning Indiana as long as we're this polarized.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

The Democratic base in Indiana was turning out regardless because Kerplumpf is POTUS. Donnelly made the smart decision in trying to pander to Trump fans. It just didn't work out.

Congratulations to Senator elect Braun! I don't regret supporting and endorsing you in the IN-SEN primary. Outsider businessman who reminded me of Trump.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Indiana Democratic Party seems to be giving the Florida Democratic Party a run for its money in terms of ineffectiveness.

John Zody needs to be fired like yesterday.

And Donnelly was a fool for hiring Peter Hanscom as campaign manager.  No one should hire him for anything again.  

I canvassed for Democrats in Indianapolis. They are a hot mess.

I compared the 2012 results to this year's.  Turnout in Lake and Marion was abysmal, and Donnelly lost ground in many places he won six years ago.  Looking at the numbers in St. Joseph County, they were awful for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing his old congressional district (both the current gerrymandered one and the one that he served before the Senate).

"I'm voting for the local Democrats, but I'm really not sure about Donnelly," was a common refrain I heard, when not getting the door slammed in my face by the Former Democrats of Speedway.

Ouch.  Was Kavanaugh a factor, or was it the onslaught of "I'm not like those Crazy Democrats" commercials?

A lot of it is he doesn't really stand for anything, and he ran campaign ads touting how he's "with Trump when Trump is good for Hoosiers," and his commitment to funding the border wall. With Democrats like him, who needs Republicans?

There were also probably moderates who were upset with the Kavanaugh process, and union types not happy about his company shipping jobs to Mexico while he swore up and down about how he was going to protect American jobs.

It was a disaster.

[libertpaulian]

The Indiana Democratic Party seems to be giving the Florida Democratic Party a run for its money in terms of ineffectiveness.

John Zody needs to be fired like yesterday.

And Donnelly was a fool for hiring Peter Hanscom as campaign manager.  No one should hire him for anything again.  

I canvassed for Democrats in Indianapolis. They are a hot mess.

I compared the 2012 results to this year's.  Turnout in Lake and Marion was abysmal, and Donnelly lost ground in many places he won six years ago.  Looking at the numbers in St. Joseph County, they were awful for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing his old congressional district (both the current gerrymandered one and the one that he served before the Senate).

"I'm voting for the local Democrats, but I'm really not sure about Donnelly," was a common refrain I heard, when not getting the door slammed in my face by the Former Democrats of Speedway.

Ouch.  Was Kavanaugh a factor, or was it the onslaught of "I'm not like those Crazy Democrats" commercials?

A lot of it is he doesn't really stand for anything, and he ran campaign ads touting how he's "with Trump when Trump is good for Hoosiers," and his commitment to funding the border wall. With Democrats like him, who needs Republicans?

There were also probably moderates who were upset with the Kavanaugh process, and union types not happy about his company shipping jobs to Mexico while he swore up and down about how he was going to protect American jobs.

It was a disaster.

Yeah, in retrospect, he was a pretty bleh candidate.  I appreciate his bipartisanship, but he had a LOT of cringe-y moments on the campaign trail.  Not that Braun was any dynamic campaigner, but he DID have an edge with the fact that this is Pence's home state, Trump is the President, and Kavanaugh was looming on a lot of minds.

I think someone in the mold of Lee Hamilton or Birch Bayh could have held the seat.

[lfromnj]

The Indiana Democratic Party seems to be giving the Florida Democratic Party a run for its money in terms of ineffectiveness.

John Zody needs to be fired like yesterday.

And Donnelly was a fool for hiring Peter Hanscom as campaign manager.  No one should hire him for anything again.  

I canvassed for Democrats in Indianapolis. They are a hot mess.

I compared the 2012 results to this year's.  Turnout in Lake and Marion was abysmal, and Donnelly lost ground in many places he won six years ago.  Looking at the numbers in St. Joseph County, they were awful for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing his old congressional district (both the current gerrymandered one and the one that he served before the Senate).

"I'm voting for the local Democrats, but I'm really not sure about Donnelly," was a common refrain I heard, when not getting the door slammed in my face by the Former Democrats of Speedway.

Ouch.  Was Kavanaugh a factor, or was it the onslaught of "I'm not like those Crazy Democrats" commercials?

A lot of it is he doesn't really stand for anything, and he ran campaign ads touting how he's "with Trump when Trump is good for Hoosiers," and his commitment to funding the border wall. With Democrats like him, who needs Republicans?

There were also probably moderates who were upset with the Kavanaugh process, and union types not happy about his company shipping jobs to Mexico while he swore up and down about how he was going to protect American jobs.

It was a disaster.

Yeah, in retrospect, he was a pretty bleh candidate.  I appreciate his bipartisanship, but he had a LOT of cringe-y moments on the campaign trail.  Not that Braun was any dynamic campaigner, but he DID have an edge with the fact that this is Pence's home state, Trump is the President, and Kavanaugh was looming on a lot of minds.

I think someone in the mold of Lee Hamilton or Birch Bayh could have held the seat.

For these states democrats literally need to clone Jason Kander at this point and send him to every single state. The fact he only lost by 3 when Trump was on the ballot 2 years ago seems like a miracle at this point.

[UWS]

Sounds like Braun won by 10 pats.

By even bigger than this : by 11 points.

[Dr. Arch]

Sounds like Braun won by 10 pats.

By even bigger than this : by 11 points.

   Mike Braun   Republican    1,120,895    51.39%
   Joe Donnelly   Democratic    971,563    44.55%

[IceSpear]

Sounds like Braun won by 10 pats.

By even bigger than this : by 11 points.

   Mike Braun   Republican    1,120,895    51.39%
   Joe Donnelly   Democratic    971,563    44.55%

Donnelly actually was losing by double digits for a while. Somehow some Indiana counties take days to report results.  There's still nothing from Porter County on either NYT or CNN, lol.

[Dr. Arch]

Sounds like Braun won by 10 pats.

By even bigger than this : by 11 points.

   Mike Braun   Republican    1,120,895    51.39%
   Joe Donnelly   Democratic    971,563    44.55%

Donnelly actually was losing by double digits for a while. Somehow some Indiana counties take days to report results.  There's still nothing from Porter County on either NYT or CNN, lol.

Well yeah, but the post I quoted was made today, lol.

[Oryxslayer]

If you guys are still wondering why Porter county is out... check out this sh**tshow - 25 tweeted long mind you.

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937524040884224?s=19

[libertpaulian]

As Braun's margin of victory shrinks, it's easy to see why Donnelly lost.  He ran a campaign that offended the base (just look at the turnout in Lake and Marion!).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937524040884224?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937525727019010?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937527840964608?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937528696553478?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937529707372544?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937530693042178?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937531565465600?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937532429471744?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937533411000325?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937534312722433?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937535109652481?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937536028188673?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937537001271296?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937537949220865?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937538741907459?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937540298047489?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937541233336320?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937542147686405?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937542147686405?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937545389953024?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937546954358785?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937547747082241?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937548581797892?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937549588377600?s=19

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937551324815360?s=19

Sounds like this country was more incompetent then Broward.

[wbrocks67]

Braun's lead is down to 5.9%. By the end, probably around 5%. Not a horrible margin for Donnelly, it's too bad he couldn't make up that last 5%.

[libertpaulian]

Braun's lead is down to 5.9%. By the end, probably around 5%. Not a horrible margin for Donnelly, it's too bad he couldn't make up that last 5%.

If Donnelly wouldn't have promised to vote with Trump on immigration, it's likely he would have gotten higher turnout in East Chicago (known as "The Latino Gary" in Lake County) and Indianapolis, as well as among liberal youth and women.

[CookieDamage]

Braun's lead is down to 5.9%. By the end, probably around 5%. Not a horrible margin for Donnelly, it's too bad he couldn't make up that last 5%.

If Donnelly wouldn't have promised to vote with Trump on immigration, it's likely he would have gotten higher turnout in East Chicago (known as "The Latino Gary" in Lake County) and Indianapolis, as well as among liberal youth and women.

Yeah, I remember seeing a news report of him saying he would consider voting with Trump on birthright citizenship. The second I saw that I figured he was done for.

[Young Conservative]

Braun's lead is down to 5.9%. By the end, probably around 5%. Not a horrible margin for Donnelly, it's too bad he couldn't make up that last 5%.

If Donnelly wouldn't have promised to vote with Trump on immigration, it's likely he would have gotten higher turnout in East Chicago (known as "The Latino Gary" in Lake County) and Indianapolis, as well as among liberal youth and women.

Yeah, I remember seeing a news report of him saying he would consider voting with Trump on birthright citizenship. The second I saw that I figured he was done for.

He would've done worse other places, so it probably didn't make much of a difference.

[libertpaulian]

At this point, Mayor Pete is probably the Indiana Democrats' only hope of achieving anything statewide.

[IceSpear]

If you guys are still wondering why Porter county is out... check out this sh**tshow - 25 tweeted long mind you.

https://twitter.com/varin/status/1060937524040884224?s=19

Good thing this race wasn't in question. Could you imagine if it went from Braun up 5 on election night to Donnelly squeaking out a victory a few days later? lol

[lfromnj]

At this point, Mayor Pete is probably the Indiana Democrats' only hope of achieving anything statewide.

whats so special about pete buttigeg?

[libertpaulian]

At this point, Mayor Pete is probably the Indiana Democrats' only hope of achieving anything statewide.

whats so special about pete buttigeg?

He's got executive experience, he's decently charismatic (definitely not on a Beto-level, though, but good enough), and he's received positive results from his time as mayor.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Braun's lead is down to 5.9%. By the end, probably around 5%. Not a horrible margin for Donnelly, it's too bad he couldn't make up that last 5%.

If Donnelly wouldn't have promised to vote with Trump on immigration, it's likely he would have gotten higher turnout in East Chicago (known as "The Latino Gary" in Lake County) and Indianapolis, as well as among liberal youth and women.

Yeah, I remember seeing a news report of him saying he would consider voting with Trump on birthright citizenship. The second I saw that I figured he was done for.

He would've done worse other places, so it probably didn't make much of a difference.

Keep in mind this strategy actually used to work in the late 2000's. Bev Perdue ran radio ads in the last week about cracking down on illegals in 2008 Governor's race. McCrory was using it as a wedge issue to flip rural voters while trying to remain a Charlotte moderate otherwise (basically Romney style). It actually worked and Perdue held onto a lot of ancestral Democrats who voted for McCain over Obama, while McCrory ran 10% almost head of McCain in Mecklenburg County.

The reason why the strategy no longer works is because one of the two parties have firmed up the issue and thus the voters who care about this issue know who to vote for. Also Donnelly voted for the comprehensive bill in 2013, so he would have a tough time selling that line to these voters if they paid attention to it to begin with, which they probably did not because they have found their Presidential champion in Trump and Trump told them to vote for Braun, which they thus did.